Emotions and domestic vote choice

ABSTRACT

What is the emotional impact of extraordinary events and how do they shape subsequent electoral outcomes? We posit that voters’ emotional reactions to such events influence whether they are likely to re-think their prior vote choice. We focus on the Brexit referendum as a prominent example of such an event. The referendum outcome elicited different emotional responses among voters, and these challenged party loyalties. Using evidence from an online cross-sectional survey conducted in the UK in June 2017 shortly after the UK General Election, we show that anger is associated with defection among Remainers and enthusiasm is linked to vote-switching among Leavers. Fear, on the other hand, does not have an effect. Our article contributes to our understanding of how extraordinary events and emotional reactions lead to shifting partisan loyalties and electoral change.

KEYWORDS:

• vote switching
• fear
• anger
• enthusiasm
• referendum
• Brexit

Acknowledgements

We thank Marc Guinjoan and Pavlos Vasilopoulos as well as the journal’s referees for excellent comments and suggestions. All errors or omissions remain our own.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by Economic and Social Research Council: [grant number ES/N001826/1].

Notes on contributors

Sofia Vasilopoulou

Sofia Vasilopoulou is Professor of Politics in the Department of Politics at the University of York, UK. Her work examines political dissatisfaction with democracy and democratic institutions across Europe. She has published in the European Journal of Political Research, European Union Politics, Journal of Common Market Studies, Journal of European Public Policy and West European Politics.

Markus Wagner

Markus Wagner is a Professor in the Department of Government at the University of Vienna, Austria. His research focuses on the role of issues and ideologies in voting behaviour and party competition and has been published in journals such as the American Journal of Political Science or Journal of Politics.