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Abstract
The study investigated the effects of Israel's use of offensive, defensive and conciliatory tactics on Palestinian's use of terrorist tactics. Proportional hazard modeling assessed the effects of Israeli tactics on total terrorist activity by Palestinians, suicidal and non-suicidal acts of terror, and acts of terror attributed to Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and factions affiliated with Fatah. Palestinian acts of terror decreased following the construction of the separation fence, but increased during Operation Defensive Shield (ODS). However, the effects of various Israeli tactics differed for the different groups. Targeted assassinations increased Hamas terrorist activity, increased PIJ activity only if highly senior persons were targeted, and had no immediate effect on terrorist activity by Fatah-affiliated factions. ODS increased terrorist activity by Fatah-affiliated factions but had no effect on Hamas and PIJ. Several conciliatory measures were followed by periods of no terrorist activity at all by Hamas and Fatah-affiliated factions. The findings highlight the importance of considering the responses of different terrorist groups when evaluating effects of counterterrorist tactics.
Acknowledgements
This material is based upon work supported by the Science and Technology Directorate, US Department of Homeland Security under Grant Number 2008-ST-108-000003. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the US Department of Homeland Security. We are indebted to Clark McCauley and Laura Dugan for comments on an earlier draft. Data on which this manuscript is based are available from the authors upon request.
Funding
This work was supported by the Science and Technology Directorate, US Department of Homeland Security under Grant Number 2008-ST-108-000003.
Notes
1. As mentioned previously, the study by Zussman and Zussman (Citation2006) did address assassinations of senior versus less senior leaders. However, the study investigated the effects of these assassinations on the stock market, not on actual terrorist activity.
2. Two additional Israeli general elections took place during the period of interest, but neither of these resulted in a meaningful change in power.
3. Several other important events occurred later in 2006, including the kidnapping of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit and the Second Lebanon War. Due to the proximity of these events to the end of the database, the available data was insufficient in order to estimate their effects.
