https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3399-3400
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ABSTRACT
Human settlements typically expand to accommodate additional housing demand from a growing population and their socio-economic activities. This implies consumption of land, a limited resource necessary for many other services. The efficiency of this exploitation in relation to demographic trends is key to preserve land and natural capital that could otherwise be degraded. Here, we assess patterns of population and built-up area growth over the period 2000–2015, using demographic statistics and remote-sensing data. We find that on average, in the EU27, built-up areas grew at a faster pace than population and that they expanded even in regions where population has declined. We quantify the impact of future population growth under different assumptions on future built-up efficiency. Keeping current built-up per capita fixed could preserve up to 9,000 km2 of land until 2030, especially outside predominantly urban regions, where land use efficiency is generally low and has been declining.
Acknowledgments
This work was performed in the frame of the JRC institutional research project GHS-Evolution. We thank all colleagues that supported this work. This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
The designations employed and the presentation of materials and maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries that if shown on the maps are only indicative. The boundaries and names shown on maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union.
Data availability statement
GHS Built-up surface layer: GHS_BUILT_LDSMT_GLOBE_R2018A DOI:10.2905/jrc-ghsl-10,007: https://ghsl.jrc.ec.europa.eu/download.php
Eurostat NUTS3 2016 boundaries: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/gisco/geodata/reference-data/administrative-units-statistical-units/nuts#nuts16
Eurostat NUTS3 Population data 2000-2015: https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=demo_r_pjanaggr3&lang=en
Eurostat NUTS3 Population data 2030: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/metadata/en/proj_esms.htm
Eurostat NUTS3 territorial typologies 2016: https://gisco-services.ec.europa.eu/distribution/v1/nuts-2016.html
Artificial surfaces, water, wetlands, glaciers: LUISA basemap https://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset/93a3385d-624a-46fe-9138-9b5bc55a8f0a
Protected areas: NATURA 2000 https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/natura-11/natura-2000-spatial-data/natura-2000-shapefile-1
Slopes: EU-DEM v1.1 https://land.copernicus.eu/imagery-in-situ/eu-dem/eu-dem-v1.1?tab=metadata
Supplementary material
Supplemental data for this article can be accessed here
Notes
2. The NUTS (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) is the Eurostat’s official regional subdivision for collection and reporting of statistical data. It is structured in four hierarchical levels, from NUTS-0 (countries) to NUTS-3 (sub-regions).
8. The amount of available land for urban development in each region is the surface area of the region minus the area that is already developed (LUISA basemap) and the areas where it is legally or technically impossible or very costly to develop: protected areas (NATURA 2000); high slopes (EU-DEM v1.1); glaciers, water surfaces, wetlands (LUISA basemap).
9. Dummy variable for NUTS3 regions classified as ‘Predominantly Urban’ or ‘Intermediate’.