Simulating the battery price and the car-mix in key electro-mobility markets via model coupling

ABSTRACT

This paper describes the modelling process of soft-linking two system dynamics models of the automotive ecosystem: the Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent model and the Transport, Energy, Economics, Environment model. The objective of this work is to explore future battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric powertrain deployment in key electro-mobility markets: China, European Union, India, Japan, Norway and the United States. In the “Alternative” scenario, a combined stock of almost 130 million electric cars in 2030 is simulated. Yet, conventional car technology continues to dominate the car-mix. By soft-linking the two models and adding information from the electric bus market, a more realistic representation of the historical battery price evolution is obtained. Due to the uncertain evolution of the battery price, sensitivity analyses are performed. We conclude that the battery price remains a crucial explanatory variable for annual electric car sales in simulation exercises.

KEYWORDS:

• System dynamics
• electric vehicles
• simulation
• automotive

Acknowledgments

We are grateful to all the persons who contributed to the development of PTTMAM in the past as well as to three anonymous reviewers for their remarks.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1. A ten percent mark-up and the same exchange rate was assumed, as these authors report cost in euros.