Learning from simulating with system dynamics in healthcare: evaluating closer care strategies for elderly patients

ABSTRACT

This paper presents results from a simulation case study analyzing care strategies for elderly patients in a regional healthcare system (HCS) in Sweden. Three strategies to reduce emergency visits, hospitalisations, and stays were evaluated: care coordinators at emergency departments, mobile health clinics visiting fragile patients in their homes, and proactive primary care. Using system dynamics modelling and empirical data, the impact on the regional HCS was explored considering the reduced care demand and demographic changes. Subsequently, the impact on the population's health status was assessed. Combining strategies yielded the best outcome, but improving patients' health status may increase long-term care demand. The study emphasizes the importance of implementing these strategies to offer better care for elderly patients and reduce healthcare costs. Findings highlight the potential long-term effects of improving health status and the need for a comprehensive approach to address the evolving care demands of an ageing population.

KEYWORDS:

• System dynamics
• elderly care
• healthcare
• decision-making
• policy making

Acknowledgments

The authors gratefully acknowledge the region of Västra Götaland (VGR) for funding the project. The authors are especially thankful to the project team members from the Department of data management and analysis of VGR Catarina Karlberg, Anna Norman Kjellström, Karin Fröjd, and Malin Lönnbark for their engagement during the whole development of the project. We would also like to thank the reviewers for their thoughtful comments and efforts towards improving our manuscript.

Disclosure statement

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.