Flooding and mobility: a polish analysis

ABSTRACT

The article contains the evaluation of indirect impact, and more precisely, effects related to traffic disruptions and the resultant changes in transport accessibility following the occurrence of a flood. The applied purpose of the analysis is to demonstrate the differentiation in spatial traffic distribution and changes regarding (time and potential) accessibility in three flooding scenarios for the Warta Water Region (the scenario 10% and 1% probability of a flood occurrence, and for the total destruction of stopbanks) in Greater Poland. The research showed that the occurrence of disruptions from untypical flooding impacts both the change in spatial distribution of traffic load within the road network and the speed at which its users can travel therein. This indicates the need to simulate various flooding scenarios in order to be better prepared for the occurrence of such a natural disaster.

KEYWORDS:

• Vulnerability
• mobility
• potential accessibility
• flood-hazard areas

Acknowledgements

Special acknowledgements should be offered to the Division of Transport Systems at the University of Technology in Poznań – with special thanks to Dr. Szymon Fierek – who granted us access to their proprietary model of traffic in Greater Poland.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 An exception to that rule is the region of the Obra Canals, where there is a probability of a 100-year flooding resulting in the submersion of minor roads that are crucial for potential accessibility for short east-west trips (where the potential is the number of residents in communes).

Additional information

Funding

This article was created under the framework of the research project No. 2018/29/B/HS4/01020, financed from the funds of the National Science Centre in Poland.