Probabilistic assessment of soil liquefaction considering spatial variability of CPT measurements

ABSTRACT

The conventional liquefaction potential assessment methods (also known as simplified methods) profoundly rely on empirical correlations based on observations from case histories. A probabilistic framework is developed to incorporate uncertainties in the earthquake ground motion prediction, the cyclic resistance prediction, and the cyclic demand prediction. The results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, site response analyses, and liquefaction potential analyses are convolved to derive a relationship for the annual probability and return period of liquefaction. The random field spatial model is employed to quantify the spatial uncertainty associated with the in-situ measurements of geotechnical material.

KEYWORDS:

• Soil liquefaction
• annual probability
• return period
• spatial variability
• cone penetration test

Acknowledgements

The author would like to thank the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) for its support and for making this research possible and two anonymous reviewers for their thoughtful comments.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.