Time-dependent reliability analysis for radionuclide migration in groundwater in near surface disposal facility using the enhanced Monte Carlo method

ABSTRACT

In the present study, reliability analysis of near surface disposal facility is performed, by assessing the probability of sequential failure of the multi barrier system using the contaminant transport model. The concentration and dose rate of the radionuclide evolve with time hence there is a need for time dependent reliability analysis. Due to the low values of expected probabilities of failure, an enhanced Monte Carlo (EMC) method and Subset simulation is employed. The Result of the analysis show that, the EMC method is useful to evaluate the probability of failure associated with the barrier system which has low probability of failure.

KEYWORDS:

• Contaminant transport model
• Monte Carlo simulation
• probability of failure
• subset simulation

Acknowledgements

We would like to express our gratitude to Prof. Arvid Naess for his helpful discussion with respect to the implementation of the enhanced Monte Carlo method.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

The work presented in this paper is part of research work carried out in the project “Development of probabilistic design and analysis procedures in radioactive waste disposal in NSDF and design of NSDF closure”, sponsored by the Board of Research in Nuclear Science (BRNS). Discussions with scientists of Bhabha Atomic Research Center (BARC) and their financial assistance are gratefully acknowledged.