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Original Articles

New revised simple models for interactive wild and sterile mosquito populations and their dynamics

Pages 316-333 | Received 30 Apr 2016, Accepted 19 Jul 2016, Published online: 10 Aug 2016

ABSTRACT

Based on previous research, we formulate revised, new, simple models for interactive wild and sterile mosquitoes which are better approximations to real biological situations but mathematically more tractable. We give basic investigations of the dynamical features of these simple models such as the existence of equilibria and their stability. Numerical examples to demonstrate our findings and brief discussions are also provided.

AMS SUBJECT CLASSIFICATION:

1. Introduction

Mosquito-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue fever, are considerable public health concerns worldwide. These diseases are transmitted between humans by blood-feeding mosquitoes. No vaccines are available and an effective way to prevent these mosquito-borne diseases is to control mosquitoes. Among the mosquitoes control measures, the sterile insect technique (SIT) has been applied to reducing or eradicating wild mosquitoes. The SIT is a method of biological control in which the natural reproductive process of mosquitoes is disrupted. Utilizing radical or other chemical or physical methods, male mosquitoes are genetically modified to be sterile which are incapable of producing offspring despite being sexually active. These sterile mosquitoes are then released into the environment to mate with wild mosquitoes that are present in the environment. A wild female that mates with a sterile male will either not reproduce, or produce eggs but the eggs will not hatch. Repeated releases of sterile mosquitoes or releasing a significantly large number of sterile mosquitoes may eventually wipe out or control a wild mosquito population [Citation1,Citation7,Citation21].

Mathematical models have been formulated in the literature to study the interactive dynamics and control of the wild and sterile mosquito populations [Citation2–6,Citation11,Citation12]. In particular, models incorporating different strategies in releasing sterile mosquitoes have been formulated and studied in [Citation9,Citation16]. The wild and sterile mosquitoes are assumed homogeneous in these models which makes the model reasonably simple and the analysis tractable. Nevertheless, since mosquitoes undergo complete metamorphosis going through four distinct stages of development during a lifetime: egg, pupa, larva, and adult [Citation8], simple stage-structured models are formulated in [Citation17] where the wild mosquitoes are divided into two groups one of which is composed of the three aquatic stages. While interspecific competition and predation may cause larval mortality, intraspecific competition could represent a major density dependent source for the population dynamics, and hence the effect of crowding could be an important factor in the population dynamics of mosquitoes [Citation10,Citation13,Citation18]. Density dependence then is included in both the homogeneous and stage-structured models in [Citation9,Citation16,Citation17] to make all model systems nonlinear.

Comparing the homogeneous and stage-structured models, the model formulations in [Citation17] are more reasonable and realistic. However, since our goal is, after having a fundamental understanding of the dynamics for the interactive mosquitoes, to have the mosquito models incorporated into disease transmission models for the mosquito-borne diseases [Citation14,Citation15], the three dimensional models for the mosquitoes make the analysis mathematically more difficult.

We also notice that the crowding basically takes place in water where the egg, pupa, and larva stages in a mosquito's life cycle present. That is, the mosquito population density dependence mostly exists in the first three aquatic stages. Thus, the density dependence for the sterile mosquitoes, which are basically adult mosquitoes, can be ignored, and the density dependence for the wild mosquitoes need to be focused on the newborns survivals.

Based on the better understanding we obtained from the model analysis in [Citation17], we revise the models studied in [Citation9] and formulate new simple models in this paper. To make the models as simple as possible, we still assume homogeneous populations such that no stage distinction is concerned. We focus the density dependence on the larvae development process and assume the death rates for wild and sterile mosquitoes are density independent [Citation19,Citation20,Citation22]. We first give general modelling descriptions in Section 2. We then consider three strategies of releases, similar to those in [Citation9,Citation17] to formulate different models, and give complete mathematical analyses for the model dynamics in Sections 34, and 5, respectively. Numerical examples are provided as well to confirm our analytic results, and we finally give brief discussions on our findings in Section 6.

2. Model formulation

Based on the works in [Citation2–6], homogeneous models for the interactive wild and sterile mosquitoes were formulated in [Citation9]. Let w(t) be the number of wild mosquitoes and g(t) the number of sterile mosquitoes at time t. Density dependence is assumed for the death rates of both wild and sterile mosquitoes. The model, in a more general setting, has the form (1) dwdt=C(N)aww+g(μ1+ξ1(w+g))w,dgdt=B()(μ2+ξ2(w+g))g,(1) where C(N) is the number of matings per individual, per unit of time, with N=w + g; a is the number of wild offspring produced per mate; μi and ξi, i=1,2, are the density independent and dependent death rates of the wild and sterile mosquitoes, respectively, and B() is the release rate of the sterile mosquitoes. With different mating rates, possible Allee effects, and three strategies of releases, fundamental analysis was carried out and results were obtained. System (Equation1) is based on the classical Lotka–Volterra model. The populations are homogeneous and density dependence is assumed in both the wild and sterile mosquitoes death rates.

Considering the distinct metamorphic stages of mosquitoes, stage-structured models were formulated and studied in [Citation17]. The three aquatic stages of wild mosquitoes were grouped into one class, called the larvae class and denoted by J, and adult stage was kept as a separate class and denoted by A in the models. Introducing the number of sterile mosquitoes at time t, denoted by g(t), into the two classes of wild mosquitoes, an interactive model, in more general setting, was described by the following system (2) dJdt=σAA+gAαJ1+J(d0+d1J)J,dAdt=αJ1+Jμ1A,dgdt=B()μ2g,(2) where σ is the number of offspring produced per wild mosquito through all matings, per unit of time, d0 is the density independent death rate and d1 is the density dependent death factor for larvae, μi, i=1,2, are the adults death rates which are assumed density independent. Based on three strategies of releases, fundamental investigations were performed. Stage structure is included in the model. Note that the sterile mosquitoes released are adult mosquitoes and the competition between adult mosquitoes are relatively weak. Moreover, while the intraspecific competition, or the effect of crowding, represents a major density dependent source in the population dynamics, the crowding basically takes place in water. The death rates for adult wild mosquitoes and sterile mosquitoes are then assumed density independent.

Each of the two models has its strong as well as weak points. In the mean time, from the relatively full investigations, it was shown that the dynamic features of the two models (Equation1) and (Equation2) are similar. As mentioned in Section 1, our goal is, after gaining a better understanding of the interactive dynamics of the wild and sterile mosquitoes, to have the mosquitoes models incorporated into the transmission models of diseases. Thus, it is beneficial and even necessary in practice to keep the mosquitoes models as simple as possible, but more accurate and realistic. To this end, learning from the strong points of the two models in systems (Equation1) and (Equation2), we propose in this paper new revised models for the interactive wild and sterile mosquitoes. We keep using the two dimensional homogeneous models based on system (Equation1) but assume that the density dependence only affects the survivals of the larvae and hence appears only in the birth term of the wild mosquitoes.

Let Sv be the number of wild mosquitoes at time t. In the absence of sterile mosquitoes, the dynamics of Sv are governed by (3) dSvdt= P(Sv)μvSv,(3) where P(Sv) is the birth function, and constant μv is the death rate of the wild mosquitoes.

We assume that the birth function has the form P(Sv)=C(Sv)aSv(1ξvSv), where C(Sv) is the mating rate, a is the maximum number of survived offspring reproduced per individual, and ξv is the carrying capacity parameter such that 1ξvSV describes the density dependent survival probability.

If the mating rate is constant, written as C(Sv):=C, Equation (Equation3) becomes the classical logistic equation dSvdt=CaSv(1ξvSv)μvSv=((Caμv)CaξvSv)Sv.

Considering the possible difficult for mosquitoes to find their mates when the population size of mosquitoes is small, we assume an Allee effect such that the mating rate takes a form of Holling-II type with C(Sv)=cSv/(1+Sv). Then Equation (Equation3) becomes (4) dSvdt=aSv1+Sv(1ξvSv)SvμvSv,(4) where we merge c and a but still denote it as a.

Clearly, the trivial equilibrium Sv=0 is a locally asymptotically stable equilibrium for Equation (Equation4). Set the right-hand side of Equation (Equation4) equal to zero. A positive equilibrium of system (Equation4) satisfies SvQw(Sv)1+Sv=0, where (5) Qw(Sv):=aξvSv2r0Sv+μv,(5) with r0:=aμv, the intrinsic growth rate of wild mosquitoes in the absence of sterile mosquitoes.

Function Qw(Sv) has real roots (6) Svw±=r0±r024aξvμv2aξv,(6) provided r02>4aξvμv. Thus, there exists no, one, or two positive equilibria of Equation (Equation4) if r0<2aξvμv, r0=2aξvμv, or r0>2aξvμv, respectively.

Suppose r0>2aξvμv such that there exist two positive equilibria. It follows from Equations (Equation4) – (Equation6) that, at a positive equilibrium, ddSvaSv1+Sv(1ξvSv)μv=a(1ξvSv)(1+Sv)2aξvSv1+Sv=a(1ξvSv)μv(1+Sv)2μvaξvSv2=a(1ξvSv)μv(1+Sv)2μv(r0Svμv)=a(1ξvSv)μv(1+Sv)2μvr022aξvr0r024aξvμv2aξv=a(1ξvSv)μv(1+Sv)24aξvμvr02r0r024aξvμv=a(1ξvSv)r024aξvμvμv(1+Sv)2r024aξvμvr0. Thus ddSvaSv1+Sv(1ξvSv)μvSvw>0,ddSvaSv1+Sv(1ξvSv)μvSvw+<0, and then positive equilibrium Svw is unstable, and Svw+ is asymptotically stable.

After sterile mosquitoes are released into the wild mosquito population, we let Sg be the number of sterile mosquitoes at time t, and assume that the interactive birth rate of wild mosquitoes follows the harmonic mean. Then, if there is no Allee effect included, the birth function has the form aSv/(Sv+Sg) and the interactive dynamics are governed by the following system (7) dSvdt= aSvSv+Sg(1ξvSv)SvμvSv,dSgdt= B(Sv)μvSg.(7) If an Allee effect is considered, we then have the following system (8) dSvdt= aSv1+Sv+Sg(1ξvSv)SvμvSv,dSgdt= B(Sv)μvSg.(8)

3. Constant releases

In this section, we suppose that the sterile mosquitoes are constantly released such that B():=b, a constant. Then no mating difficulty will be concerned and based on system (Equation7), we have (9) dSvdt=aSvSv+Sg(1ξvSv)SvμvSv,dSgdt=bμvSg.(9)

Define set Ω1 as Ω1:=(Sv,Sg):0Svr0aξv,  0Sgbμv, where we assume r0>0. Then Ω1 is a positive invariant set for system (Equation9). We assume (Sv,Sg)Ω1 in this section.

System (Equation9) has a boundary equilibrium E0c:=(0,g0), where g0=b/μv.

A positive equilibrium of system (Equation9) satisfies aμvSvμvSv+b(1ξvSv)μv:=μvQ1(Sv)μvSv+b=0, where (10) Q1(Sv):=aξvSv2r0Sv+b,(10) which has two solutions (11) Svb±=r0±r024aξvb2aξv.(11) Define a threshold value of releases for system (Equation9) by (12) bcc:=r024aξv.(12) Then there exist no, one, or two positive solutions given in (Equation11) to Q1=0 in Equation (Equation10), that is, no, one, or two positive equilibria of system (Equation9), if b>bcc, b=bcc, or b<bcc , respectively.

We next investigate the stability of the equilibria. The Jacobian matrix at an equilibrium has the form J(1):=J11(1)aSv2(Sv+g0)20μv, where J11(1)=μv at the boundary equilibrium. Thus the boundary equilibrium E0c is always asymptotically stable. Furthermore, if there exists no positive interior equilibrium, since set Ω1 is positively invariant, according to the Poincaré-Bendixson Theorem, E0c is globally asymptotically stable.

At a positive equilibrium, Sv+Sg=aSv(1ξvSv)μv, and thus, in addition to following from Equation (Equation10), J11(1)=SvaSv(1ξvSv)Sv+SgμvSv=aSvSg(1ξvSv)(Sv+Sg)2ξvSvSv+Sg=aSv(Sv+Sg)2(Sg(1ξvSv)ξvSv(Sv+Sg))=aSv(1ξvSv)μv(Sv+Sg)2(baξvSv2)=aSv(1ξvSv)μv(Sv+Sg)2(2br0Sv)=aSv(1ξvSv)μv(Sv+Sg)22br022aξvr0r024aξvb2aξv=aSv(1ξvSv)μv(Sv+Sg)22aξv(4aξvbr02r0r024aξvb)=aSv(1ξvSv)r024aξvbμv(Sv+Sg)22aξv(r024aξvbr0).

Then, at positive equilibria Ec:=(Svb,g0) and Ec+:=(Svb+,g0), J11(1)(Svb)=aSv(1ξvSv)r024aξvbμv(Sv+Sg)22aξv(r024aξvb+r0)>0, and J11(1)(Svb+)=aSv(1ξvSv)r024aξvbμv(Sv+Sg)22aξv(r024aξvbr0)<0, which implies that Ec is a saddle point and Ec+ is a locally asymptotically stable node. In summary, we have

Theorem 3.1:

Assume r0=aμv>0. System (Equation9) has a boundary equilibrium Ec0=(0,g0) with g0=b/μv, which is globally asymptotically stable if there exists no positive equilibrium, and locally asymptotically stable if a positive equilibrium exists. System (Equation9) has no, one, or two positive equilibria if b>bcc, b=bcc, or b<bcc, respectively, where the release threshold bcc is given in (Equation12). If there exist two positive equilibria, Ec=(Svb,g0) and Ec+=(Svb+,g0), where Svb± are given in (Equation11), Ec is an unstable saddle point and Ec+ is a locally asymptotically stable node.

We give an example to illustrate the results in Theorem 3.1 as follows.

Example 1:

Parameters are given as (13) a=10,μv=0.5,ξv=0.3,(13) and thus the release threshold is bcc=7.5208.

Boundary equilibrium Ec0=(0,12) is asymptotically stable. With b=6<bcc, there exist two positive equilibria Ec=(0.8713,12) and Ec+=(2.2953,12). Equilibrium Ec is a saddle point and Ec+ is a locally asymptotically stable node. Solutions approach either Ec0 or Ec+ depending on their initial values, as shown in the left side of Figure . For b=9>bcc, there exists no positive equilibrium and Ec0 is globally asymptotically stable. All solutions approach Ec0 as shown in the right side of Figure .

Figure 1. Parameters are given in (Equation13) and the release threshold is bcc=7.5208. For b=6<bcc, there are two positive equilibria Ec=(0.8713,12) and Ec+=(2.2953,12). Equilibrium E1c is a saddle point and Ec+ is a locally asymptotically stable node, solutions approach Ec+ or the locally asymptotically stable boundary equilibrium Ec0 depending on their initial values, as shown in the left-side figure. For b=9>bcc, no positive equilibrium exists and Ec0 becomes globally asymptotically stable. All solutions approach Ec0 as shown in the right-side figure.

Figure 1. Parameters are given in (Equation13(13) a=10,μv=0.5,ξv=0.3,(13) ) and the release threshold is bcc=7.5208. For b=6<bcc, there are two positive equilibria Ec−=(0.8713,12) and Ec+=(2.2953,12). Equilibrium E1c is a saddle point and Ec+ is a locally asymptotically stable node, solutions approach Ec+ or the locally asymptotically stable boundary equilibrium Ec0 depending on their initial values, as shown in the left-side figure. For b=9>bcc, no positive equilibrium exists and Ec0 becomes globally asymptotically stable. All solutions approach Ec0 as shown in the right-side figure.

4. Releases proportional to the wild mosquitoes

As in [Citation9,Citation17], to have a more optimal and economically effective strategy of releasing sterile mosquitoes in an area where the population size of wild mosquitoes is relatively small, we may consider to keep closely sampling or surveillance of the wild mosquito population and let the rate of releases be proportional to the population size of the wild mosquitoes such that B(Sv)=bSv where b is a constant. In the meantime, in a situation where a small mosquito population size may cause possible mating difficulty, we assume an Allee effect and thus the interactive system for the wild and sterile mosquitoes, based on system (Equation8), has the form (14) dSvdt=aSv1+Sv+Sg(1ξvSv)SvμvSv,dSgdt= bSvμvSg.(14)

Define set Ω2 as Ω2:=(Sv,Sg):0SvSvw+,0SgbμvSvw+, where Svw+ is given in (Equation6). Then Ω2 is a positive invariant set for system (Equation14). We assume (Sv,Sg)Ω2 in this section.

The origin (0,0) is a trivial equilibrium and is always locally asymptotical stable. A positive equilibrium of system (Equation14) satisfies the following equation aSv(1ξvSv)1+Sv+Sgμv=μvQ2(Sv)μv+(μv+b)Sv=0, where (15) Q2(Sv):=aξvSv2(r0b)Sv+μv,(15) which has two roots (16) Svp±=r0b±(r0b)24aξvμv2aξv.(16) If br0, then there are no positive roots to Q2(Sv)=0, that is, no positive equilibria to system (Equation14).

Assume b<r0. Then (r0b)24aξvμv0, if and only if 0<br02aξvμv. Define the threshold value of releases as (17) bpc:=r02aξvμv.(17) Then system (4) has no, one, or two positive equilibria of system (Equation9) if b>bpc, b=bpc, or b<bpc, respectively.

Assume b<bpc so that there exist two positive equilibria, denoted by Ep:=(Svp,bSvp/μv) and Ep+:=(Svp+,bSvp+/μv). We investigate the stability of the positive equilibria as follows.

The Jacobian matrix at an equilibrium has the form J(2):=J11(2)aμv2Sv2(1ξvSv)(μv+(μv+b)Sv)2bμv, where J11(2)=SvaSv(1ξvSv)1+Sv+SgμvSv=aSv(1+Sv+Sg)2ξvSv2+(12ξvSv)(1+Sg)=aμvSv(μv+(μv+b)Sv)2((μv+2b)ξvSv2+(2μvξvb)Svμv). Thus, writing Δ1:=(μv+(μv+b)Sv)2aμv2SvdetJ(2), we have (18) Δ1=(μv+2b)ξvSv2+(2μvξvb)Svμv+bSv(1ξvSv)=(μv+b)ξvSv2+2μvξvSvμv.(18) It follows from Equation (Equation15) that, at an equilibrium, ξvSv=1a((r0b)Svμv). Substituting it into Equation (Equation18) yields (19) aΔ1=(μv+b)((r0b)Svμv)+2aμvξvSvaμv=((μv+b)(r0b)+2aμvξv)Sv(a+μv+b)μv.(19) Then substituting (Equation16) into Equation (Equation19), we have 2a2ξvΔ1=((μv+b)(r0b)+2aμvξv)(r0b)2aξv(a+μv+b)μv±((μv+b)(r0b)+2aμvξv)(r0b)24aξvμv. Notice that ((μv+b)(r0b)+2aμvξv)(r0b)2aξv(a+μv+b)μv=(μv+b)(r0b)2+2aμvξv(r0b(a+μv+b))=(μv+b)(r0b)24aμvξv(μv+b)=(μv+b)((r0b)24aμvξv). Then 2a2ξvΔ1=(μv+b)((r0b)24aμvξv)±((μv+b)(r0b)+2aμvξv)(r0b)24aξvμv, and thus we have the determinant of the Jacobian at Ep+, detJ(2)(Svp+)>0.

At Ep, writing Δ2:=2a2ξvΔ1(r0b)24aξvμv, we have Δ2=(μv+b)(r0b)24aμvξv((μv+b)(r0b)+2aμvξv)=(μv+b)2((r0b)24aμvξv)((μv+b)(r0b)+2aμvξv)2(μv+b)(r0b)24aμvξv+((μv+b)(r0b)+2aμvξv)=4aμvξv((μv+b)2+(μv+b)(r0b))+4a2μv2ξv2(μv+b)(r0b)24aμvξv+((μv+b)(r0b)+2aμvξv)=4aμvξv((μv+b)(μv+r0))+aμvξv)(μv+b)(r0b)24aμvξv+((μv+b)(r0b)+2aμvξv)<0, which implies that the determinant of J(2) at Ep has detJ(2)(Svp)<0. Hence Ep is an unstable saddle point.

Moreover, at Ep+, trJ(2)(Sv)=aμvSv(μv+(μv+b)Sv)2((μv+2b)ξvSv2+(2μvξvb)Svμv)μv=μvΔ3(μv+(μv+b)Sv)2, where (20) Δ3:=aSv((μv+2b)ξvSv2+(2μvξvb)Svμv)+(μv+(μv+b)Sv)2=aSv((μv+2)ξvSv2+2μvξvSvμv)+bSvaξvSv2abSv2+(μv+(μv+b)Sv)2=aSvΔ1+bSvaξvSv2abSv2+(μv+(μv+b)Sv)2.(20) It follows from Equation (Equation15) that aξvSv2=(r0b)Svμv. Substituting it into Equation (Equation20) then yields Δ3= aSvΔ1+bSv(r0b)SvbSvμvabSv2+μv2+2μv(μv+b)Sv+(μv+b)2Sv2=aSvΔ1+bSv2(r0ba)+μv2+μv(2μv+b)Sv+(μv+b)2Sv2=aSvΔ1bSv2(μv+b)+μv2+μv(2μv+b)Sv+b(μv+b)Sv2+μv(μv+b)Sv2=aSvΔ1+μv2+μv(2μv+b)Sv+μv(μv+b)Sv2>0. Thus trJ(2)(Svp+)=Δ3<0 and hence positive equilibrium Ep+ is a locally asymptotically stable node or spiral.

In summary, we have the following results.

Theorem 4.1:

The origin (0,0) is a trivial equilibrium of system (Equation14), which is always locally asymptotically stable. Assume r0>2aξvμv. Then system (Equation14) has no, one, or two positive equilibria if b>bcp, b=bcp, or b<bcp, respectively, where the release threshold bcp is given in (Equation17). If there exist two positive equilibria, Ep=(Svp,bSvp/μv) and Ep+=(Svp+,bSvp+/μv), where Svp± are given in (Equation16), equilibrium Ep is an unstable saddle point and Ep+ is a locally asymptotically stable node or spiral.

A numerical example for the proportional releases of sterile mosquitoes is given below.

Example 2:

With the same parameters as in Example 1, that is, (21) a=10,μv=0.5,ξv=0.3,(21) the release threshold is bpc=7.0505.

When b=6<bpc, there exist two positive equilibria Ep=(0.6667,2) and Ep+=(1,12). Equilibrium Ep is a saddle point and Ep+ is a locally asymptotically spiral. Solutions approach either Ep+ or the origin depending on their initial values as shown in the left side of Figure . For b=9>bpc, there exists no positive equilibrium and the origin is globally asymptotically stable. All solutions approach the origin as shown in the right side of Figure .

Figure 2. Parameters are given in (Equation21) and the release threshold is bpc=7.0505. For b=6<bpc, there are two positive equilibria Ep=(0.6667,2) and Ep+=(1,12). Equilibrium Ep is a saddle point and Ep+ is a locally asymptotically spiral. Solutions approach either Ep+ or the origin depending on their initial values as shown in the left-side figure. For b=9>bpc, there exists no positive equilibrium. The origin is globally asymptotically stable. All solutions approach the origin as shown in the right-side figure.

Figure 2. Parameters are given in (Equation21(21) a=10,μv=0.5,ξv=0.3,(21) ) and the release threshold is bpc=7.0505. For b=6<bpc, there are two positive equilibria Ep−=(0.6667,2) and Ep+=(1,12). Equilibrium Ep− is a saddle point and Ep+ is a locally asymptotically spiral. Solutions approach either Ep+ or the origin depending on their initial values as shown in the left-side figure. For b=9>bpc, there exists no positive equilibrium. The origin is globally asymptotically stable. All solutions approach the origin as shown in the right-side figure.

5. Proportional releases with saturation

A new strategy to compromise the two strategies studied in Sections 3 and 4 was proposed in [Citation9,Citation17], where the release rate is proportional to Sv as Sv small, but is saturated and approaches a constant as Sv sufficiently large. Let B(Sv)=bSv/(1+Sv), and the interactive dynamics of the wild and sterile mosquitoes are governed by the following system (22) dSvdt=aSv1+Sv+Sg(1ξvSv)SvμvSv,dSgdt=bSv1+SvμvSg.(22)

Define set Ω3 as Ω3:=(Sv,Sg):0SvSvw+,0Sgbμv, where Svw+ is given in (Equation6). Then Ω3 is a positive invariant set for system (Equation22). We assume (Sv,Sg)Ω3 in this section.

The origin (0,0) is a trivial equilibrium and is always locally asymptotical stable. A positive equilibrium of system (Equation22) satisfies the following equation aSv(1ξvSv)1+Sv+bSvμv(1+Sv)μv=μvQ3(Sv)μv(1+Sv)2+bSv=0, where Q3:=aξvSv3+(aξvr0)Sv2+(b+μvr0)Sv+μv. Clearly, the positive equilibria of (Equation22) correspond to the positive roots of Q3(Sv)=0. Since there exist at most two positive roots of Q3(Sv)=0, there exist at most two positive equilibria of (Equation22).

Rewrite Q3(Sv)=Qw(Sv)(1+Sv)+bSv, where Qw is given in (Equation5). For fixed parameters, if there is no positive root for Qw(Sv)=0, that is, no intersection between the curve of Qw(Sv) and the positive Sv-axis, the curve of Q3(Sv) has no intersection with the positive Sv-axis for b0. Hence there is no positive equilibrium of system (Equation22) if r02aξvμv.

Suppose r0>2aξvμv. The curve of Q3(Sv) for b=0, that is the curve of Qw(Sv), intersects the positive Sv-axis twice. It is clear that the curve of Q3(Sv) moves up as b increases and is completely above the positive Sv-axis as b sufficiently large. Hence, there exists a threshold value of b, denoted by bHc, such that the curve is tangent to the positive Sv-axis, for all of other parameters fixed. Thus system (Equation22) has no, one, or two, positive equilibria, if b>bHc, b=bHc, or b<bHc, respectively. Indeed, the threshold value bHc can be determined as follows.

At a positive critical point (SvH,bHc), the following two equations are satisfied simultaneously: (23) Q3(Sv)=Qw(Sv)(Sv+1)+bSv=(aξvSv2r0Sv+μv)(Sv+1)+bSv=0,Q3(Sv)=Qw(Sv)(Sv+1)+Qw(Sv)+b=(2aξvSvr0)(Sv+1)+aξvSv2r0Sv+μv+b=0,(23) which results in a unique SvH satisfying (24) 2aξv(SvH)3+aξv(SvH)2μv=0,(24) and then (25) bHc:=r0μv3aξv(SvH)2+2(r0aξv)SvH.(25)

We next work on the stability of the positive equilibria.

The Jacobian matrix at an equilibrium has the form J(3):=J11(3)J12(3)b(1+Sv)2μv, where J11(3)=SvaSv(1ξvSv)1+Sv+SgμvSv=Sva(1ξvSv)1+Sv+SgaSv(1+ξv(1+Sg))(1+Sv+Sg)2=μvaSv2(1+ξv(1+Sg))(1+Sv+Sg)2, and J12(3)=SvaSv(1ξvSv)1+Sv+SgμvSg=aSv2(1ξvSv)(1+Sv+Sg)2=μvSv1+Sv+Sg.

It follows from Equations (Equation23) that, at a positive equilibrium, (26) aξvSv2r0Sv+μv=aSv(ξvSv1)+μv(1+Sv)=bSv1+Sv.(26) Since Sg=bSvμv(1+Sv), then Equation (Equation26) leads to Sg=aSv(1ξvSv)μv(1+Sv). Thus (27) 1+Sv+Sg=aSv(1ξvSv)μv,(27) and 1+ξv(1+Sg)=1+ξvaSv(1ξvSv)μvSv=1ξvSvμv(aξvSv+μv). We then have (28) J11(3)=μvaSv2(1+ξv(1+Sg))(1+Sv+Sg)2=μvaSv2(1ξvSv)(aξvSv+μv)μv2a2Sv2(1ξvSv)2μv=μv(aξvSv+μv)μva(1ξvSv)=μva(1ξvSv)(a(1ξvSv)aξvSvμv)=μva(1ξvSv)(a(12ξvSv)μv).(28)

On the other hand, it follows from Equations (Equation23) and (Equation26) that Q3=(2aξvSvr0)(Sv+1)bSv1+Sv+b=(a(2ξvSv1)+μv)(Sv+1)+b1+Sv=(a(12ξvSv)μv)(Sv+1)+b1+Sv. Then a(12ξvSv)μv=11+Svb1+SvQ3, and thus J11(3)=μva(1ξvSv)(1+Sv)b1+SvQ3. Hence, we have detJ(3)=μvJ11(3)b(1+Sv)2J12(3)=μv2Q3a(1ξvSv)(1+Sv)bμv2a(1ξvSv)(1+Sv)2+baSv2(1ξSv)(1+Sv)2(1+Sv+Sg)2, and it follows from Equation (Equation27) that (29) detJ(3)=μv2Q3a(1ξvSv)(1+Sv)bμv2a(1ξvSv)(1+Sv)2+bμv2(1+Sv)2a(1ξvSv)=μv2Q3a(1ξvSv)(1+Sv).(29)

Suppose there exist two positive equilibria E1H:=(Sv{1},Sg{1}) and E2H:=(Sv{2},Sg{2}) with Sv{1}<Svc<Sv{2}. Then Q3(Sv{1})<0,Q3(Sv{2})>0, which implies, from Equation (Equation29) that detJ(3)(Sv{1})<0,detJ(3)(Sv{2})>0. Thus, E1H is an unstable saddle.

Moreover, we have, from Equation (Equation28), trJ(3)=J11(3)μv=μva(1ξvSv)(a(12ξvSv)μv)μv=μva(1ξvSv)(a(12ξvSv)μva(1ξvSv))=μva(1ξvSv)(aξvSv)μv)<0. Therefore, positive equilibrium E2H is a locally asymptotically stable node or saddle.

In summary, we have

Theorem 5.1:

The origin (0,0) is a trivial equilibrium of system (Equation22), which is always locally asymptotically stable. If r02aξvμv, system (Equation22) has no positive equilibrium. If r0>2aξvμv, there exists a threshold value bHc=bHc(SvH) given in (Equation25) with SvH being the unique positive solution to Equation (24). System (Equation22) has no, one, or two positive equilibria if b>bHc, b=bHc, or b<bHc, respectively. If there exist two positive equilibria E1H=(Sv{1},Sg{1}) and E2H=(Sv{2},Sg{2}) with Sv{1}<SvH<Sv{2}, equilibrium E1H is an unstable saddle and E2H is a locally asymptotically stable node or spiral.

We give a numerical example for system (Equation22) as follows.

Example 3:

Given the parameters (30) a=10,μv=0.5,ξv=0.3,(30) the solution SvH to system (Equation23) is SvH=0.31899 and then bHc=12.231 in (Equation25).

With b=11<bHc, there exist two positive equilibria E1H=(0.60312,8.2768) and E2H=(1.7239,13.9232), in addition to the trivial equilibrium (0,0) which is a locally asymptotically stable node. Equilibrium E1H is a saddle point while E2H is a locally asymptotically stable spiral, as shown in the upper left side of Figure . As b increases but is less than bHc, the two positive equilibria move closer. For b=12.07, E1H is still a saddle point, E2H becomes a locally asymptotically stable node as shown in the upper right side of Figure . There is an unstable saddle-node point as b=bcH, and as b=13>bcH, there exists no positive equilibrium and all solutions approach the origin as shown in the lower part of Figure .

Figure 3. Parameters are given in (Equation30) and the release threshold is bHc=12.231. For b=11<bHc, there are two positive equilibria, one of which is a saddle point and one of which is a locally asymptotically stable spiral, as shown in the upper left-side figure. For b=12.07, the two positive equilibria move closer, where one is still saddle point and the other becomes a locally asymptotically stable node as shown in the upper right-side figure. For b=13>bHc, there exists no positive equilibrium and all solutions approach the origin as shown in the lower figure.

Figure 3. Parameters are given in (Equation30(30) a=10,μv=0.5,ξv=0.3,(30) ) and the release threshold is bHc=12.231. For b=11<bHc, there are two positive equilibria, one of which is a saddle point and one of which is a locally asymptotically stable spiral, as shown in the upper left-side figure. For b=12.07, the two positive equilibria move closer, where one is still saddle point and the other becomes a locally asymptotically stable node as shown in the upper right-side figure. For b=13>bHc, there exists no positive equilibrium and all solutions approach the origin as shown in the lower figure.

6. Concluding remarks

Based on the models in [Citation9,Citation17], we revised and formulated new simple models for the interactive wild and sterile mosquitoes in this paper. The main goal is to make the models more appropriately describing the biological situations, and in the meantime mathematically more tractable.

While mosquitoes undergo complete metamorphosis going through distinct stages of development during a lifetime, and hence stage-structured models are needed, the investigations on the stage-structured models in [Citation17] and the simplified homogeneous models without stage structure in [Citation9] showed that they exhibited very similar dynamical features. Since our fundamental goal of these studies is to eventually have the interactive mosquitoes models incorporated into transmission models of mosquito-borne diseases in higher dimensional spaces, a reduction of even one dimension in the model formulation could benefit our further research. Hence, it seems reasonable to keep using two-dimensional homogeneous models for the interaction of wild and sterile mosquitoes but with modifications.

We note that the released sterile mosquitoes are all adults. The competition for resources between the adult mosquitoes are relatively weak and as a result, it seems reasonable to assume density independent death rates for both wild and sterile mosquitoes. In the meantime, the intraspecific competition could represent a major density dependent source for the larvae development, and in particular, the crowding basically takes place in water. Thus, we need to have the density dependence more focused on the birth terms, more specifically, on the survivals of the newborns. Comparing to the models in [Citation9], we thus assume that the birth rate has the form of aSv(1ξvSv) with a the maximum reproduction rate. With such revisions, we believe that the models are more biologically appropriate and better fitting our research design.

We fully studied the dynamical features for the models formulated in this paper. We determined the existence of all possible equilibria and completely investigated their stability for the three models with different strategies of releases in Sections 3,4, and 5. We established release threshold values of sterile mosquitoes for each model. As the release rate of sterile mosquitoes exceeds the threshold value, there exists no positive equilibrium, and the boundary equilibrium for the constant releases and the trivial equilibrium for the other two strategies are globally asymptotically stable, which means all wild mosquitoes go extinct eventually. On the other hand, it the release rate is less than the threshold value, all of the three models have two positive interior equilibria one of which is always a saddle point, and one of which is locally asymptotically stable. The stable equilibrium for the constant releases is a node, but it can be either a node or a spiral for the other strategies of releases. This is different from the model dynamics in [Citation9,Citation17].

The model dynamics are relatively simple compared to the models in [Citation9,Citation17], but again since the focus of modelling mosquitoes interactions is on our fundamental goal of having the mosquito models incorporated into disease transmission models, this is exactly what we need. Further studies on the impact of releases of sterile mosquitoes on disease transmissions, based on the interactive mosquito models in this paper, will benefit from such revisions, and will appear in the near future. We would also like to point out that the new models in this paper can be applied to other interacting species as well.

Acknowledgments

The author thanks the handling editor and two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

This research was supported partially by U.S. National Science Foundation grant [DMS-1118150].

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