Modeling malaria transmission in Nepal: impact of imported cases through cross-border mobility

ABSTRACT

The cross-border mobility of malaria cases poses an obstacle to malaria elimination programmes in many countries, including Nepal. Here, we develop a novel mathematical model to study how the imported malaria cases through the Nepal-India open-border affect the Nepal government's goal of eliminating malaria by 2026. Mathematical analyses and numerical simulations of our model, validated by malaria case data from Nepal, indicate that eliminating malaria from Nepal is possible if strategies promoting the absence of cross-border mobility, complete protection of transmission abroad, or strict border screening and isolation are implemented. For each strategy, we establish the conditions for the elimination of malaria. We further use our model to identify the control strategies that can help maintain a low endemic level. Our results show that the ideal control strategies should be designed according to the average mosquito biting rates that may depend on the location and season.

KEYWORDS:

• Cross-border mobility
• malaria elimination programme
• imported malaria cases
• mathematical model
• Nepal

MATHEMATICS SUBJECT CLASSIFICATIONS 2010:

• 34D20
• 37N25
• 92B05
• 92C50

Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the GRAID (Graduate Research Assistantships in Developing Countries) awards from the International Mathematical Union (IMU). RG acknowledges the University Grants Commission (UGC) for Ph.D. Faculty Fellowship and the Nepal Mathematical Society (NMS) for the NMS Ph.D. Fellowship Award 2020. KA acknowledges the Nepal Academy of Science and Technology (NAST) for Ph.D. Fellowship and the Nepal Mathematical Society (NMS) for the NMS Ph.D. Fellowship Award 2020. AP acknowledges the Nepal Mathematical Society (NMS) for the NMS Ph.D. Fellowship Award 2020. The work of NV was supported by NSF grants DMS-1951793, DMS-1616299, DMS-1836647, and DEB-2030479 from the National Science Foundation of USA, and the UGP Award from San Diego State University.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

This research was supported by the GRAID (Graduate Research Assistantships in Developing Countries) awards from the International Mathematical Union (IMU). RG acknowledges the University Grants Commission (UGC) for Ph.D.Faculty Fellowship and the Nepal Mathematical Society (NMS) for the NMS Ph.D. Fellowship Award 2020. KA acknowledges the Nepal Academy of Science and Technology (NAST) for Ph.D. Fellowship and the Nepal Mathematical Society (NMS) for the NMS Ph.D. Fellowship Award 2020. AP acknowledges the Nepal Mathematical Society (NMS) for the NMS Ph.D. Fellowship Award 2020. The work of NV was supported by NSF grants DMS-1951793, DMS-1616299, DMS-1836647, and DEB-2030479 from the National Science Foundation of USA, and the UGP Award from San Diego State University.