Deciphering the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in India: optimal control and cost effective analysis

Abstract

In this paper we assess the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 utilizing a compartmental model. The local asymptotic stability of equilibria (disease-free and endemic) in terms of the basic reproduction number have been determined. We find that the system undergoes a backward bifurcation in the case of imperfect quarantine. The parameters of the model have been estimated from the total confirmed cases of COVID-19 in India. Sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number has been performed. The findings also suggest that effectiveness of face masks plays a significant role in reducing the COVID-19 prevalence in India. Optimal control problem with several control strategies has been investigated. We find that the intervention strategies including implementation of lockdown, social distancing, and awareness only, has the highest cost-effectiveness in controlling the infection. This combined strategy also has the least value of average cost-effectiveness ratio (ACER) and associated cost.

Keywords:

• Control strategies
• optimal control
• cost minimization
• COVID-19
• backward bifurcation

Maths:

• 92D30

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

Vijay Pal Bajiya receives funding as senior research fellowship from the Council of Scientific & Industrial Research (CSIR), India (File No. 09/1131(0006)/2017-EMR-I). The research work of Sarita Bugalia is supported by the CSIR, India (File No. 09/1131(0025)/2018-EMR-I). The research work of Jai Prakash Tripathi is supported by the Science and Engineering Research Board (SERB), India (File No. ECR/2017/002786).