The Political Economy of Kenya's Crisis

Abstract

Using political economy analysis, this paper discusses three precipitating factors that were ignited by Kenya's 2007 election, which was too close to call beforehand and highly contested afterwards. These factors were: the gradual loss of the state's monopoly of legitimate force and the consequent diffusion of violence; the deliberate weakening of institutions outside the executive in favour of personalized presidential power, raising questions about the credibility of other institutions to resolve the election on the table rather than in the streets; and a lack of programmatic political parties which gave rise to a winner take all view of parties that were inherently clientist and ethnically driven, something that raised the stakes of winning and gave rise to violence. The paper discusses each of these factors in historical perspective. It explains how and why they arose and what made each so dangerous. It also aims to place what happened in Kenya into a wider framework of understanding by drawing on a broad range of literature in political economy ranging from Max Weber to Douglas North. Of the three factors discussed, the diffusion of violence followed by institutional issues constitute serious challenges. The resilience of both has the potential to undermine Kenya's transition to democracy.

Acknowledgements

I dedicate this article to the memory of Appollo Njonjo, my life-long friend and colleague, who spent his life fighting for democracy and against the twin evils of tribalism and violence. I would like to thank Phil Keefer for his astute comments on an earlier draft of this article as well as many unnamed colleagues in Kenya, the UK and Europe whose ideas, writings, and friendship have enhanced my understanding of Kenya over the years most of whose names are listed in my bibliography. I would also like to thank the editors of the journal for many interesting exchanges and for their collegiality.

Notes

1. World Bank, Governance Indicators. Available from http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi2007/sc_country.asp; INTERNET.

2. Between 1999 and 2002 140 foreign companies left Kenya. Katumanga, ‘A City Under Siege’, 517.

3. This author mentioned this during visits to Kenya in 2005 and 2006 in discussions with individuals in government and with donors.

4. Weber, Basic Concepts in Sociology, 119–23.

5. Mueller, ‘Government and Opposition in Kenya’; Mueller, ‘Political Parties in Kenya’. Also see Branch and Cheeseman, ‘Politics of Control’, 11–28.

6. Mwangola, ‘Leaders of Tomorrow’, 147–48.

7. Mueller, ‘Government and Opposition in Kenya’, 407–26; and Mueller, ‘Political Parties in Kenya’.

8. Throup, ‘Construction and Destruction’, 34–36, 57–73; Throup and Hornsby, Multi-Party Politics, 26–27; Asingo, ‘Political Economy of Transition’, 23; Odhiambo-Mbai, ‘The Rise and Fall of the Autocratic State’, 65.

9. Throup, ‘Construction and Destruction’, 34–36, 57–73; Throup and Hornsby, Multi-Party Politics, 26–27; Asingo, ‘Political Economy of Transition’, 23; Odhiambo-Mbai, ‘The Rise and Fall of the Autocratic State’, 65.

10. Barkan ‘Divergence and Convergence’, 24–29; Chege, ‘Return of Multi-Party Politics’, 59; and Cowen and Kanyinga, ‘The 1997 Elections’, 135.

11. Stren, Halfani and Malombe, ‘Coping with Urganization’, 185–86.

12. Barkan, ‘Divergence and Convergence’, 27.

13. Katumanga, ‘City Under Siege’; KHRC, Where Terror Rules, 1–26; Carver and Kirschke, Deadly Marionettes, 15–25.

14. Katumanga, ‘City Under Siege’, 505, 508; Kagwanja, ‘Youth, Identity, Violence’, 90.

15. Moi, Nationalism, 174–83.

16. Asingo, ‘Political Economy of Transition’, 37–38; Anderson, ‘Vigilantes, Violence, and the Politics of Public Order’, 547–53.

17. Anderson, ‘Yours in the Struggle of Majimbo’, 563. For a further elaboration of this point also see Anderson, ‘Decline et Chute de la KANU’; Ngunyi, ‘Resuscitating the “Majimbo” Project’, 183–213; Kanyinga, ‘Contestation over Political Space’, 18.

18. The acronym KAMATUSA is a short hand for Kalenjin, Masai, Samburu, and Turkana.

19. Anderson, ‘Yours in the Struggle of Majimbo’, 552–53, 555.

20. Anderson, ‘Yours in the Struggle of Majimbo’, 561–63.

21. Bates, Beyond the Miracle of the Market, 61–63; Widner, The Rise of a Party State in Kenya, 55.

22. Quoted in ‘Is Majimbo Federalism’, The Nation, 20 May 2001.

23. Wilcove, No Way Home, 91–93.

24. Mwangi, ‘Subdividing the Commons’, 825–26, 829.

25. Glaeser and Schleifer, ‘The Curley Effect’, 1–2, 9–12.

26. See also Bates, ‘Institutions and Development’, 28, 31. Bates argues multi-party elections may distort economic policies if politicians feel at risk and there is no accountability.

27. Africa Watch, Divide and Rule, 70–72,79– 80; KHRC, Kayas of Deprivation, 48–49; KHRC, Kayas Revisited, 38–47; Republic of Kenya, Akiwumi Report.

28. Africa Watch, Divide and Rule, 30.

29. Republic of Kenya, Akiwumi Report, 78.

30. Boone, ‘Winning and Losing’, p. 9.

31. Boone, ‘Winning and Losing’, p.20.

32. Africa Watch, Divide and Rule, 52.

33. Republic of Kenya, Akiwumi Report, 88.

34. Kamungi, ‘The Current Situation’, 11–12, 23; Africa Watch, Divide and Rule, 70, 77, 2.

35. Boone, ‘Winning and Losing’, 19.

36. Kamungi, ‘The Current Situation’, 13, 15.

37. Collier, The Bottom Billion, 23–32; Collier and Hoeffler, ‘Greed and Grievance in Civil Wars’, 563–95; Ballentine and Sherman, Political Economy of Armed Conflict.

38. KHRC, Kayas of Deprivation; KHRC, Kayas Revisited.

39. Katumanga, ‘City Under Siege’, 513.

40. Anderson, ‘Vigilantes, Violence, and the Politics of Public Order’, 531–55; Kagwanja, ‘Facing Mount Kenya or Facing Mecca?’ 25–49; Kagwanja ‘Power to Uhuru’, 51–75; Gecaga, ‘Religious Movements and Democratization’, 58–89.

41. Katumanga, ‘City Under Siege’, 513.

42. Katumanga, ‘City Under Siege’, 512

43. Gecaga, ‘Religious Movements and Democratisation’, 78, 80, 83–85.

44. Katumanga, ‘City Under Siege’, 513.

45. Katumanga, ‘City Under Siege’, 513–17.

46. Collier, The Bottom Billion, 22–25; Levitt and Dubner, Freakonomics, 89–116.

47. Anderson, ‘Vigilantes and Violence’, 547–53; KHRC, Kayas of Deprivation; Katumanga, ‘City Under Siege,’ 512; Kagwanja, ‘Politics of Marionettes’, 72–100.

48. Anderson, ‘Vigilantes and Violence’, 547–53; KHRC, Kayas of Deprivation; Katumanga, ‘City Under Siege’, 512; Kagwanja, ‘Politics of Marionettes’, 72–100; Asingo, ‘The Political Economy of Transition in Kenya’, 37–38.

49. Bates, ‘Institutions and Development’, 57.

50. ‘Ethnicity, Violence, and the 2007 Election in Kenya’, 3.

51. North, ‘Economic Performance through Time’, 360–62; 366.

52. Kibara, ‘The Challenges and Efficiency of Election Monitoring’, 284–302. Nyamu, ‘Managing Elections in Kenya’, 284–85; Aywa and Grignon, ‘As Biased as Ever?’, 102–05.

53. Africa Confidential 48, nos. 23 and 25, 16 November and 14 December 2007. For a further elaboration of this point see the testimony of the US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Africa. Swan, ‘The Political Crisis of Kenya’.

54. International Crisis Group, “Kenya in Crisis”, 13.

55. Africa Confidential 48, no. 25, 14 December 2007.

56. Odhiambo-Mbai, ‘The Rise and Fall of the Autocratic State’, 60–63.

57. Odhiambo-Mbai, ‘The Rise and Fall of the Autocratic State’, 64.

58. Mueller, ‘Government and Opposition in Kenya’, 406–26.

59. Quotation from field notes of Malcolm Valentine, cited in Mueller, ibid., 423

60. Odhiambo-Mbai, ‘The Rise and Fall of the Autocratic State’, 69.

61. Kanyinga, ‘Limitations of Political Liberalization’, 103–04.

62. Gimonde, ‘The Role of the Police’, 239, 252; Africa Watch, Divide and Rule, 49–52.

63. Cowen and Kanyinga, ‘1997 Elections in Kenya’, 136.

64. Odhiambo-Mbai, ‘The Rise and Fall of the Autocratic State’, 68.

65. Republic of Kenya, Report of the Judicial Commission, 43–44.

66. wa Wamwere, The People's Representative and the Tyrants, 25.

67. wa Wamwere, The People's Representative and the Tyrants, 99–100.

68. See Africa Confidential 48, no. 18, 7 September 2007.

69. Asingo, ‘The Political Economy of Transition in Kenya’, 26.

70. Asingo, ‘The Political Economy of Transition in Kenya’, 42–47; Oloo, ‘The Contemporary Opposition in Kenya’, 100–08.

71. Acemoglu and Robinson, ‘Economic Backwardness in Political Perspective’, 117.

72. Oloo, ‘The Contemporary Opposition in Kenya’, 95, 100–03.

73. See Jonyo, ‘The Centrality of Ethnicity in Kenya's Political Transition’, 155–79.

74. For discussions of why politicians in ‘young democracies’ find it cheaper and more efficient to deliver targeted private, as opposed to public goods, see Keefer, ‘Clientism, Credibility and Policy Choices’, 804–21 and Keefer and Vlaicu, ‘Democracy, Credibility, and Clientism’.

75. Cowen and Kanyinga, ‘The 1997 Elections’, 170.

76. Wanyande, ‘The Politics of Alliance Building in Kenya’, 128–84; Ajulu, ‘Kenya's 1992 Election’; Ajulu, ‘Kenya: Reflection on the 2002 Elections’.

77. Africa Confidential 48, no. 25, 14 December 2007.

78. Kasara, ‘Tax Me If You Can’, 159–72.

79. Kasara, ‘Tax Me If You Can’, 161.

80. Collier, The Bottom Billion, 25–26; Posner, ‘The Political Salience of Cultural Differences’, 529–45,

81. Posner, ‘Regime Change and Ethnic Cleavages’, 1302, 1304–05.

82. Daily Nation, 15 February 2008.**

83. Fearon and Laitin, ‘Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War’, 88.

84. The examples discussed below come from discussions and news reports from the Nation, the East African Standard, and the international media.

85. Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (KNHCR). Still Behaving Badly.

86. Treisman, ‘The Causes of Corruption: A Cross-National Study’, 399–457.

87. See Carothers, ‘Democracy Without Illusions’’ 22–43; Joseph, ‘Democratization in Africa’, 363–82; Joseph, ‘Africa, 1990–1997’, 5–19.

88. North, ‘Economic Performance through Time’, 365–67.