Kenya's Hopes and Impediments: The Anatomy of a Crisis of Exclusion

Abstract

This paper examines the underlying causes of the December 2007, post-election Kenyan crisis. We argue that the crisis is best understood not as simply ethnic rivalry for power but rather as a product of the rising expectations due to the increase in democratic space in the last five years combined with the frustration of over a millennium of exclusion on the economic and political fronts. Kenyan institutions have not accommodated the building of an inclusive multi-ethnic nation for reasons of their design and specific political economy and this failure resulted in the crisis. We argue that for Kenya to retain its stability and achieve peace there must be a broad political and economic programme that puts inclusion at the centre of its design. This programme must address historic demands as well as deal with immediate issues of peace and justice and it must be more than an agreement between the principals in the political crisis. We also contend that the crisis provides an opportunity to redress some of the concerns and we explore some specific constitutional changes and economic policies that the government may consider to achieve these aims.

Notes

1. A prior short version of this paper appeared in two parts as ‘Using Our Failures to Create a New Political and Economic Agenda’ in Business Daily, 20 March 2008 and as ‘The Restructuring that Kenya Needs’ in Business Daily, 1 April 2008.

2. The issue agenda was expanding and coming from multiple sources. That was the good news. The bad news was that it was hard to find popularly based, national level, policy-based movements or organizations that might move new agendas over the long haul.

3. Wainaina, ‘Generation Kenya’, is a vigorous near ethnographical account of a once floundering urban middle class that suddenly gained new opportunity and confidence in the economic advance in the aftermath of the 2002 election. S. McCrummen, ‘Kenya's Middle Class’, paints a similar picture.

4. Deininger and Squire, ‘A New Data Set’; Gĩthĩnji, Ten Millionaires; Gĩthĩnji, ‘Gini Coefficient’; UNDP, National Human Development Report; KNBS, Household Budget Survey.

5. Gĩthĩnji, Ten Millionaires.

6. Gĩthĩnji, Ten Millionaires. Hunt, ‘Land Privatisation’; Jayne et al., ‘Smallholder Income’; Pickney and Kimuyu, ‘Land Tenure Reform’.

7. Pollin, Gĩthĩnji, and Heintz, Economic Plan.

8. Leo, Land and Class.

9. SID, Readings on Inequality.

10. Ndungu Commission, Report on Illegal and Irregular Allocation of Land.

11. Anderson, Histories.

12. MARS Group website. Available from www.marsgroupkenya.org; INTERNET.

13. At the time of writing, a Truth Justice and Reconciliation Committee has just been accepted as part of the power sharing framework.

14. This suggestion is inspired by Guinier, ‘The Triumph of Tokenism’.

15. MARS Group website. Available from www.marsgroupkenya.org; INTERNET.

16. Barkan, ‘Elections’; and Barkan, Densham, and Rushton, ‘Space Matters’.

17. Barkan, Densham, and Rushton, ‘Space Matters’.

18. We note here again this existence is not separate from the political and economic exclusion that forces people to organize around ethnicity. We are not making a claim for it being an inherent organizing principle.

19. We leave the determination of how large a CDC would be and which specific ministry officers to debate amongst Kenyans.

20. We are of course also aware of community land claims such as those of the Maa community that stem back to agreements made with the colonial government. We do not address these claims here. These claims would have to be addressed via a different approach and given the degree of settlement that has taken place on most of the lands are more likely settled via compensation rather than land redistribution. For an example of the claims see Kantai, ‘Vampire State’.

21. Gĩthĩnji and Cullenberg, ‘Deconstructing the Peasantry’.

22. Ndungu Commission, Report on Illegal and Irregular Allocation of Land.

23. For good discussions of redistribution, see Griffin, Khan, and Ickowitz, ‘Poverty and the Distribution of Land’ and ‘In Defence’.

24. Akran-Lodhi, Borras, and Kay, Land, Poverty and Livelihoods.

25. Jayne et al. , ‘Smallholder Income’.

26. We assume that these are quality corrected acres and that the median price reflects this. That is to say in some areas the average acreage per household will be less and in others more depending on the quality of the land.

27. KNBS, Household Budget Survey.

28. For both the second and third economic planks a detailed attempt at increasing employment in Kenya can be found in Pollin, Gĩthĩnji, and Heintz, Economic Plan for Kenya.

29. Interview with Principal Economist Ministry of Water David Kiboi, 24 Oct. 2006.

30. Moore and White, ‘Meeting the Challenge’.