The self-fulfilling prophecy of failed states: Somalia, state collapse and the Global War on Terror

Abstract

Over recent decades, several states have experienced mounting difficulties in fulfilling classic state functions such as guaranteeing territorial integrity and law and order. Some “failing states” have even seen the disappearance of all central authority: “state collapse”. Since 11 September 2001, this phenomenon has been particularly associated with terrorism, trans-border criminality and global instability. The international community presents this “Orthodox Failed States Narrative” as an objective, apolitical analysis of a “new” problem. The hegemonic account cherishes ideological assumptions that are seldom made explicit and veil power asymmetries in the international political economy. The securitisation of the Global South provides the pretext for confrontation and top-down restructuring of domestic politics by Coalitions of the Willing in the context of the Global War on Terror (GWOT). Through analysis of America's Somalia policy, this article illustrates theoretical flaws underpinning the Orthodox Narrative together with the disastrous implications of America's new “Long War” in Africa's Horn. The absence of central government produced state collapse's archetype in Somalia: anarchy, lawlessness and an “Al-Qaeda safe-haven”, dixit Washington. This article challenges conventional wisdom by highlighting spontaneous emergences of new political complexes amidst the “chaos”, capable of providing order and stability. It explores the rise and fall of the Union of Islamic Courts. The Courts resembled a national liberation movement, based on their concoction of Sharia-justice, security and welfare provision. However, the Islamists’ tangible improvements in livelihoods were not permitted to continue. Imprisoned analytically by the Orthodox Narrative, Washington perceived the Courts as Somalia's “neo-Taliban”. This reductionist stance led to a self-fulfilling prophecy: as bellicose rhetoric radicalised positions in Mogadishu and Washington, an American-backed invasion by Ethiopia pushed-out the Islamists. Today, an insurgency is ravaging Somalia and the humanitarian situation has worsened dramatically: the GWOT's narrow world-vision has hindered the re-emergence of legitimate authority and blocked bottom-up responses to human security questions.

Keywords:

• Somalia
• failed states
• Global War on Terror
• Horn of Africa
• radical Islamism

Notes

1. Fukuyama, The End of History.

2. Kaplan's The Ends of the Earth is the most prominent example of the new era's dystopian views.

3. Duffield, Global Governance and the New Wars, 1–15. See also Castells, End of Millennium.

4. For an excellent overview see the 2002 special issue of Development and Change, 33, no. 5.

5. Milliken, State Failure, Collapse and Reconstruction, 1–19.

6. Zartman, Collapsed States, 5.

7. Kraxberger, “Failed States,” 1055–71.

8. Ignatieff, Empire Lite.

9. Fearon and Laitin, “Neotrusteeship and the Problem of Weak States.”

10. The classic analysis on failed states is made by Rotberg, When States Fail, in particular chapter 1.

11. Frum and Perle, An End to Evil, 117–21; Ledeen, The War against the Terror Masters.

12. Center for Global Development, “On the Brink.”

13. Rashid, Taliban; Napoleoni, Terror Inc.

14. National Security Council, “Strategy for Winning the War on Terror.”

15. Berger and Borer, “The Long War,” 207–9.

16. Berger and Borer, “The Long War,” 209–11; Frum and Perle, An End to Evil.

17. Solana, “A Secure Europe in a Better World.”

18. Winkler, In the Name of Terrorism, 1–16, 156–75.

19. Abrahamsen, “A Breeding Ground for Terrorists?,” 679–80.

20. Straw, “Failed and Failing States.”

21. Ahmed and Green, “The Heritage of War”; Rawson, “Dealing with Disintegration.”

22. Prunier, “A World of Conflict Since 9/11.”

23. Samatar, “Ethiopian Invasion of Somalia.”

24. Gettleman, “Islamists Calm Somali Capital with Restraint.”

25. “By Dawn the Islamists Were Gone,” The Economist.

26. Refugees International, “Somalia. Policy Overhaul Required.”

27. Doornbos, “State Collapse and Fresh Starts,” 47–9.

28. Clapham, “Rethinking African States.”

29. Jackson, “Surrogate Sovereignty.”

30. Doornbos, “State Collapse and Fresh Starts,” 55–7.

31. Duffield, Global Governance and the New Wars, 13–15.

32. Rawson, “Dealing with Disintegration”; Meredith, The State of Africa, 464–84.

33. Giustozzi, “The Debate on Warlordism,” 5–8.

34. Spittaels and Hilgert, “Mapping Conflict Motives,” 6–8.

35. Bakonyi and Stuvoy, “Violence and Social Order”; Giustozzi, “The Debate on Warlordism.”

36. Simons and Tucker, “The Misleading Problem of Failed States.”

37. Prunier, “A World of Conflict Since 9/11.”

38. Clapham, “The Challenge to the State”; Milliken, State Failure.

39. Lund, “Twilight Institutions.”

40. On the state as a specific product of historical conditions and its not necessarily objective character, see: Tilly, Coercion, Capital, and European States; Doornbos, “Somalia.”

41. Among the best-known anthropological works on the Somali people are Lewis, A Pastoral Democracy, and Lewis, Saints and Somalis.

42. Doornbos, “Somalia,” Meredith, The State of Africa, 464–84.

43. Menkhaus, “Vicious Cycles.”

44. Marchal, “Islamic Political Dynamics.” See also Bakonyi and Stuvoyy, “Violence and Social Order,” 364–8.

45. Marchal, “Somalia: A New Front against Terrorism.”

46. Doornbos, “Somalia.” Also Clapham, “The Global–Local Politics of State Decay.”

47. Lewis, Saints and Somalis.

48. De Waal, Islamism and its Enemies in the Horn of Africa.

49. Marchal, “Islamic Political Dynamics,” 132–9.

50. Prunier, “A World of Conflict Since 9/11.”

51. Menkhaus, “The Crisis in Somalia,” 371–4. Gettleman, “Islamists Calm Somali Capital with Restraint,” Marchal, “Somalia.”

52. “Some Peace, But No Keepers,” Africa Confidential, 1–3; Prunier, “A World of Conflict Since 9/11.”

53. Samatar, “Ethiopian Invasion of Somalia.”

54. Meredith, The State of Africa, 464–84. According to The Economist, in its article “By dawn the Islamists were gone”; “Somalis object to Ethiopians on their soil much the same way that Irish citizens might object to a British military advance on Dublin.”

55. Kamel, “War without Borders.”

56. Gettleman, “Islamists Calm Somali Capital with Restraint”; Africa Confidential, “Some Peace, But No Keepers.”

57. Kamel, “War without Borders”; Marchal, “Somalia.”

58. International Crisis Group, “Somalia. The Tough Part is Ahead,” 2–7; “A Brittle Western Ally in the Horn of Africa,” The Economist.

59. Menkhaus, “The Crisis in Somalia,” 368, 377–8.

60. Frazer, “Testimony before the US Senate.”

61. Samatar, “Ethiopian Invasion of Somalia.”

62. Somali Diaspora Congress, “Stop the Genocide and End the Humanitarian Crisis in Somalia.”

63. Amnesty International, “Routinely Targeted. Attacks”; Human Rights Watch, “Shell Shocked. Civilians under Siege in Mogadishu.”

64. Amnesty International, “Routinely Targeted. Attacks”; Gettleman, “Somalia”s Government Teeters on Collapse.”

65. Marchal, “Somalia.”

66. “A Targeted Killing,” Africa Confidential.

67. Rice, “Testimony before the Subcommittee on Africa of the International Relations Committee.”

68. Doom, “Falende Staten”; Dexter, “New War,” 1055, 1068.

69. Abrahamsen, “A breeding ground for terrorists?,” 682

70. Duffield, Global Governance and the New Wars, 13–14; Dexter, “New War,” 1055–7.

71. Doom, “Falende Staten.”

72. Berger and Borer, “The Long War.”

73. Winkler, In the Name of Terrorism, 1–16, 175–81.

74. Read for instance the fairly moderate, nuanced analysis of the Center for Global Development, “On the Brink.”

75. Parker and Moore, “The War Economy of Iraq.”

76. Frazer, “Testimony before the US Senate”

77. Sen, Development as Freedom.

78. Doornbos, “Somalia.”

79. Clapham, “The Global–Local Politics of State Decay”; Menkhaus, “Vicious Cycles,” 163

80. Tilly, Coercion, 16–32.