Somalia rising: things are starting to change for the world's longest failed state

Abstract

This article examines some of the challenges facing the new Somali National Government in Mogadishu, following the conclusion of the Transitional Federal Charter, and the resulting surprises in the emergence of the post-Transitional leadership. The article also assesses the dynamics which allowed the emergence of relative newcomers into important roles, especially President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. A sense of optimism surrounds the Mogadishu administration, which is a marked departure from the previous two decades; is it justified? Will it be sustained?

Keywords:

• Somalia
• Somaliland
• governance
• transition
• federalism
• refugees
• al-Shabaab
• failed state

Acknowledgements

The title takes its name from a Twitter hashtag given to discussions about Somalia by Somalis and Somalia-analysts the days following the end of the transition. The author would like to thank two anonymous reviewers for comments on a draft of the paper.

Notes

1. Garowe Principles I, Dec. 24, 2011 and Garowe Principles II, Feb. 17, 2012.

2. Healy, “Somalia: After the London Conference.”

3. International Crisis Group, “Somalia: From Troubled Transition to a Tarnished Transition?”

4. The target of 30% female representation in the Constituent Assembly was also missed.

5. Uluso, “Provisional Constitution Heightens Tensions in Somalia”; BBC, “Somali Leaders Back New Constitution”; Aden, “Somalia: The Consequences of a Crooked Constitution.”

6. For useful analyses of the immediate post-transition challenges see Menkhaus, “Somali Spring,” and Marchal, “Somalia: A New Era?”

7. See for instance Dunida Online, “The Governance Plan of Damul Jadid in Somalia.”

8. See UK Ambassador Baugh, “Politics, Partnership, Patience.”

9. Menkhaus, “Somalia's Sarajevo,” and Aynte, “Somalia: The Kismaayo Conundrum(S).”

10. London 2012 Conference Communique.

11. Yabarag, “President Mahmoud Should Replace the New Foreign Minister.”

12. Aynte, “Al-Shabaab and Post-Transition Somalia.”

13. Majid and McDowell, “Hidden Dimensions of the Somalia Famine”.

14. Aynte, “Al-Shabaab and Post-Transition Somalia.”

15. Al Jazeera, “Somali Leader Outlines Concerns.”

16. Hammond, “What Role for the Diaspora in Somalia's Future?”

17. Hammond and Vaughan-Lee, “Humanitarian Space in Somalia: A Scarce Commodity.”

18. UNOCHA Financial Tracking System.