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Original Articles

Electing the ‘alliance of the accused’: the success of the Jubilee Alliance in Kenya's Rift Valley

Pages 93-114 | Received 05 Jul 2013, Accepted 16 Aug 2013, Published online: 19 Nov 2013
 

Abstract

Against a history of a divided Kalenjin/Kikuyu vote and election-related violence, and a contemporary context of high levels of inter-communal mistrust and intervention by the International Criminal Court (ICC), this article explains the Jubilee Alliance's success amongst Kalenjin and Kikuyu voters in the Rift Valley in the 2013 election. To do this, it examines the pre-election context, election results in Kalenjin- and Kikuyu-dominated areas, local political debates, and election campaigns to reveal how the ‘Uhuruto’ team persuaded local residents to support this seemingly unlikely political marriage in all six elections. It is argued that the alliance used existing and emergent communal narratives of justice and competition to recast socio-economic and political debates in a way that persuaded the majority of Kalenjin and Kikuyu to support Jubilee – and to vote against Raila Odinga and the Coalition for Reform and Democracy (CORD) – as a way to protect and further their individual and collective interests. In making this argument, particular attention is given to relations between community members, and to popular support and investment in peace; negotiations between Uhuru and Ruto, and Kalenjin ‘hosts’ and Kikuyu ‘guests’; the reinterpretation of the ICC as a performance of injustice; and successful presentation of ‘Uhuruto’ as a youthful team that could bring about peace and meaningful change as compared with an old, vengeful, incumbent Odinga Odinga.

Acknowledgements

This chapter draws upon research that was conducted as part of an Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) funded project entitled “Truth and Justice: The search for peace and stability in modern Kenya.” I would like to thank all of those who spared their time to speak with me in Kenya, and Leonard Baraza, Nic Cheeseman, and Justin Willis for their comments and feedback, and Patrick Githinji, Keffa Magenyi, Albert Mshonda, Ngengi wa Njuguna, Job Wandania, and Cyrus Yugi for their help and excellent insights as research assistants.

Notes

1. The final percentage later increased, somewhat erroneously, to 50.07%.

2. These areas refer to two former provinces – Kenya's eight provinces now replaced by 47 counties following the inauguration of a new constitution in August 2010. However, Kenyans – and analysts of Kenyan politics – still regularly refer to these geographic areas as they are the administrative units with which ordinary people are most familiar, while they continue to have political meaning given remembered histories of collective justice and injustice.

3. CitationShah, “Ethnicity and Electoral Legitimacy.”

4. CitationLynch, I Say to You.

5 CitationLynch, “Durable Solution, Help or Hindrance,” p. 604.

6. Cf. CitationHorowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict.

7 CitationLynch, I Say to You, p. 2.

8. CitationLynch, “Courting the Kalenjin,” p. 541.

9. Mueller, “Political Economy of Kenya's Crisis,” p. 201.

10 Lynch, I Say to You, p. 9.

11. Interview with a Kikuyu peace activist, Eldoret, 24 February 2013.

12. Interview with a Kikuyu peace activist from Burnt Forest, Eldoret, 10 December 2012.

13. Republic of Kenya. “2009 Population and Housing Census.”

14. Namely Kapenguria, Sigor, Kacheliba, Pokot South, Cherangany, Soy, Turbo, Moiben, Ainabkoi, Kapseret, Kesses, Marakwet East, Marakwet West, Keiyo North, Keiyo South, Tinderet, Aldai, Nandi Hills, Chesumei, Emgwen, Mosop, Tiaty, Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Mogotio, Eldama Ravine, Kipkelion East, Kipkelion West, Ainamoi, Bureti, Belgut, Sigowet/Soin, Sotik, Chepalungu, Bomet East, Bomet Central, Konoin, Kuresoi South, and Kuresoi North constituencies.

15. Namely West Pokot, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Nandi, Baringo, Kericho, and Bomet counties.

16. CitationRepublic of Kenya. “2009 Population and Housing Census.”

17. Namely Laikipia East, Laikipia West, Molo, Njoro, Naivasha, Gilgil, Subukia, Rongai, Bahati, and Nakuru Town East constituencies.

18. Namely Nakuru and Laikipia counties.

19. Interview with a Kikuyu civil society activist, Eldoret, 26 February 2013.

20. Lynch, I Say to You.

21. CitationIpsos Synovate, “Significant Shifts in Political Party Support.”

22. Interview, 26 February 2013

23. Lynch, I Say to You, p. 559.

24. Lynch, I Say to You; CitationBoone, “Politically Allocated Land Rights.”

25. Lynch, “Courting the Kalenjin,” p. 541.

26. Jenkins, “Ethnicity, Violence, and the Immigrant–Guest.”

27. CitationHarris, “Stain Removal.”

28. Lynch, I Say to You.

29. CitationHuman Rights Watch (HRW). High Stakes, p. 13.

30. CitationAmnesty International, “Police Reform in Kenya,” p. 6.

31. CitationInternational Crisis Group (ICG), Kenya's 2013 Elections, p. i.

32. CitationThe Star. “Sang Endorses Raila.”

33. Interview with a Kalenjin businessman, Mauche, 6 January 2013.

35. CitationKenya National Dialogue and Reconciliation (KNDR), “Kenya National Dialogue and Reconciliation Monitoring Project,” p. 8.

36. Interview with a Kalenjin youth, Sotik, 9 January 2013.

37. Interview with a Kikuyu clergyman, Eldoret, 19 May 2011.

38. Interview with a Kikuyu IDP leader, Nakuru, 8 March 2011.

39. CitationHuman Rights Watch (HRW), Turning Pebbles, p. 4.

40. Interview with a Kikuyu peace activist, Nakuru, 8 March 2011.

41. Interview with a Kikuyu peace activist, Burnt Forest, 31 July 2009.

42. Interview with a local Kikuyu election monitor, 15 December 2012.

43. Conversation with Nakuru, 14 December 2012.

44. Kikuyu man during a focus group discussion, 6 January 2013.

45. CitationWepundi et al., Availability of Small Arms and Perceptions of Security.

46. Conversations during a visit to Banita, 7 January 2013.

47. Interview with a youth leader, Nakuru, 30 July 2009.

48. Interview with a local journalist, Eldoret, 1 September 2011.

49. Cf. CitationGaltung, “Peace, and Peace Research.”

50. Interview with a Kikuyu peace activist, Nakuru, 13 December 2012.

51. Interview with a Kikuyu peace activist, Eldoret, 10 December 2012.

52. Ruto at a campaign rally in Nandi County, February 2013; CitationSalil, “‘Six-Piece Vote Will Earn Us Respect.’”

53. These numbers remain the same whether or not rejected votes are included in the calculation. This is an issue as, initially, rejected votes were included; however, according to the Supreme Court decision on the presidential election of 30 March, rejected votes should not have been included.

54. These statistics change to over 90% in six constituencies if rejected votes are ignored, as Uhuru's total in Njoro increases from 88.79% to 90.52%.

55. Correspondence with West Pokot resident, 13 June 2013.

56. Lynch, I Say to You.

57. CitationThe Star, “Ban Rev Kosgey.”

58. Interview with an IDP leader, Kuresoi, 2 March 2013.

59. Correspondence with a civil society activist, Kitale, 24 June 2013.

60. CitationThe Star, “Moi Son Raymond”

61. CitationFerree et al., “Voting Behaviour and Electoral Irregularities.”

62. CitationWillis, and Chome, “Pwani ni Kenya,” p. 15.

63. CitationThe Star, “Defectors Won't Get Jobs.”

64. Interview with a member of the Kalenjin Council of Elders, 17 July 2009.

65. Interview with a Kalenjin clergyman, Eldoret, 28 March 2013.

66. CitationJenkins, “Ethnicity, Violence, and the Immigrant–Guest,” p. 577.

67. For example, CitationThe Star, “Nakuru: The Dowry Uhuru Paid.”

68. Interviews in Nakuru County in December 2012 and January 2013.

69. Interview with a Kikuyu clergyman, Eldoret, 26 March 2013.

70. Interview with a Kikuyu IDP leader, Eldoret, 28 February 2011.

71. Anyang Nyong'o is a prominent Luo politician in ODM who played a very public role in rejecting the presidential results and in calling people out onto the streets in December 2007.

72. Interview with a Kalenjin peace activist, Eldoret, 3 March 2011.

73. CitationRepublic of Kenya, Commission of Inquiry into Post-Election Violence, p. 473.

74. For further details, see CitationBrown and Sriram, “Big Fish Won't Fry Themselves”; CitationLynch and Zgonec-Rožej, “ICC Intervention in Kenya.”

75. CitationMueller, “Kenya and the International Criminal Court.”

76. Cited in CitationCole, Performing South Africa's Truth Commission, p. 1 (emphasis added).

77. Interview with a human rights activist, Nairobi, 19 August 2011.

78. Interview with a peace activist, Eldoret, 1 September 2011.

79. Kalenjin man during a focus group discussion, Burnt Forest, 20 May 2011.

80. CitationMiguna, Peeling back the Mask, p. 300.

81. Interview with a Kalenjin peace activist, Eldoret, 3 March 2011.

82. Interview with a member of the Kalenjin Council of Elders, 23 February 2011.

83. Interview with a civil society activist, Eldoret, 24 February 2013.

84. CitationWainaina, “Kenyans Elected a President.”

85. Interview with a Kikuyu elder, Ndeffo, 6 January 2013.

86. Interview with a civil society activist, Eldoret, 24 February 2013.

87. Cf. CitationPeskin, “Caution and Confrontation.”

88. Miguna, Peeling Back the Mask, p. 394.

89. Interview with a Kikuyu peace activist from Burnt Forest, Eldoret, 24 February 2013.

90. Interview with a civil society activist, Eldoret, 12 December 2012.

91. Cf. CitationComaroff and Comaroff, Ethnicity, Inc., p. 58.

92. Interview with a Kalenjin academic, Eldoret, 24 February 2013.

93. CitationJalloh, “Situation in the Republic of Kenya.”

94. Dennis Itumbi, tweet, 5 February 2013.

95. CitationMueller, “Kenya and the International Criminal Court.”

96. Republic of Kenya, Commission of Inquiry into Post-Election Violence, p. viii.

97. Interview with a Kalenjin elder, Kericho, 21 September 2011.

98. Interview with a Kalenjin academic, Eldoret, 5 March 2011.

99. Interview with a Kikuyu peace activist, Nakuru, 7 March 2011.

100. Interview with a Kikuyu elder, Ndeffo, 6 January 2013.

101 Interview with a Kikuyu peace activist from Burnt Forest, Eldoret, 10 December 2012.

102. Interview with a Kikuyu clergyman, Njoro, 16 December 2012.

103. Ruto speaking in Iten, Elgeyo-Marakwet County, 8 February 2013; CitationMayabi, “Jubilee Leaves Nothing to Change.”

104. Interview with a Kikuyu businessman, Molo, 14 December 2012.

105. CitationThe Standard, “Balala Accuses PM of Betrayal.”

106. Miguna, Peeling Back the Mask, pp. 155, 175, 502, 334.

107. CitationDeacon, “God Did It For Us,” p. 4.

108. Cf. CitationAllahyari, “Micro-Politics of Worthy Homelessness.”

109. Conversation with a Kikuyu security guard, Kerugoya, Central Province, 6 May 2011.

110. Interview with a civil society activist, Eldoret, 26 March 2013.

111. Interview with a Kikuyu peace activist, Eldoret, December 2012.

112. Interview with a Kalenjin businessman, Kapsokwony, Mt Elgon, August 2012.

113. Interview with a Kalenjin youth leader, Eldoret, 27 March 2013.

114. CitationKimutai, “Ruto: I Will Put My Detractors to Shame.”

115. Interview with a local Kikuyu radio presenter, Nakuru, 3 April 2013.

116. Interview with a Kalenjin youth leader, Eldoret, 27 March 2013.