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Abstract
In the 2013 elections, northern Kenya – previously seen as peripheral to national politics – took on great significance as a potential ‘swing’ region, and became the focus of much campaigning and strategizing by presidential and other candidates. It was also seen as a region especially at risk of violence given its history of ethnic politics and the new context of the devolved county system. This paper explores how the north's ethnic dynamics played out in 2013, looking in particular at case studies of three northern counties: Isiolo, Mandera and Marsabit. It traces the history of ethnic politics in these counties, and the strategies used to secure votes in 2013 through strategic alliance formation, exclusionary politics and the anointing of candidates by ‘councils of elders’. While such strategies were not uniformly successful, they led to a remarkable swing to the Jubilee Alliance of Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto in Mandera. Ruto's United Republican Party did especially well in the north, and he appears to have navigated the ethnic and clan politics of the north expertly, playing up his pastoralist background as he did so. While a success for Jubilee, the ethnic strategizing has had serious ramifications, especially in Mandera and Marsabit where exclusion has led to resentment and conflict.
Notes
1. The media emphasized this significance during the campaigning, suggesting that while the north may not be the most populous region, candidates would ignore these ‘swing communities’ of pastoralists ‘at their peril’; e.g. CitationAbdullahi, Ahmednasir, “Areas that Will Determine Kenya's 4th President.”
2. On the low registration, see CitationNg'etich, “Low Voter Roll in North Eastern.”
3. In campaigning in Moyale, for example, Odinga remarked how the town remained almost as it had been 50 years earlier at Independence: http://cordkenya.blogspot.com/2013/01/cord-plans-to-wrap-up-elections-in.html/.
4. There was considerable emphasis on the high stakes of the election in such counties, and this was reflected in media coverage: http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/High-stakes-in-contest-for-governor-seat-/-/1064/1458624/-/cqfkkiz/-/index.html/.
5. See Muiruri in The Link: Enhancing Governance for All, issue 91. http://www.kas.de/wf/doc/kas_31089-1522-1-30.pdf?120522093027/.
6. CitationNzioka, “Kenya: High Stakes in Contest.”
7. CitationGovernment of Kenya, Vision 2030.
8. Hassan Huka, “Kibaki Commissions Isiolo Airport.” http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000076927&story_title=-Kibaki-commissions-Isiolo-airport/.
9. CitationSchlee, “Territorializing Ethnicity.”
10. CitationFratkin and Roth, “Setting,” 40.
11. CitationHogg, “New Pastoralism,” 319.
12. CitationFratkin and Roth, “Setting,” 40.
13. CitationLewis, Modern History of the Somali, 191.
14. CitationFratkin and Smith, “Women's Changing Economic Roles.”
15. CitationWhittaker, “Pursuing Pastoralists.”
16. CitationArero, “Coming to Kenya.”
17. CitationSheikh, Blood on the Runway.
18. CitationTruth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission of Kenya, The Final Report 2013.
19. CitationTablino, The Gabra, 236.
20. CitationHornsby, Kenya, 519.
21. CitationFox, “Bleak Future for Multi-Party Elections,” 603.
22. CitationBratton and Kimenyi, “Voting in Kenya”; CitationLynch, I Say to You.
23. CitationSobania, “Pastoralist Migration and Colonial Policy,” 230.
24. For an account of such processes in central Kenya, see CitationParsons, “Being Kikuyu in Meru.”
25. CitationWatson, “‘Hardening of Lines.’”
26. For a recent overview of anthropological approaches to ethnicity, see CitationEriksen, “Ethnicity.”
27. CitationSchlee, “Territorializing Ethnicity,” 864.
28. CitationHuman Rights Watch, High Stakes, 41.
29. CitationMenkhaus, “Rise of a Mediated State,” 25.
30. CitationMenkhaus, Kenya–Somalia Border Conflict Analysis, 43.
31. CitationKenya Human Rights Commission, Forgotten People Revisited, 74–114.
32. CitationMenkhaus, Kenya–Somalia Border Conflict Analysis, 52–3.
33. CitationHuman Rights Watch, Bring the Gun or You'll Die.
34. CitationMkutu, Guns and Governance.
35. The first political party in Somalia that aimed to unite all Somali territories.
36. CitationTurton, “Somali Resistance to Colonial Rule,” 136.
37. CitationMenkhaus, Kenya–Somalia Border Conflict Analysis, 24.
38. For the government website for Vision 2030, see http://www.vision2030.go.ke/; Isiolo features as a future ‘resort city’: http://www.vision2030.go.ke/index.php/projects/details/Economic/27/.
39. As noted in CitationNoor and Koross, “Politics to Blame for Clashes”; and CitationJamah, “NCIC Slams State Over Moyale.”
40. CitationAbdi, “Bandits Shoot Dead Four People.”
41. CitationKochore, “Devolution Goodies Driving Conflict.”
42. CitationFox, “Bleak Future for Multi-Party Elections,” 603.
43. CitationSchlee and Shongolo, Pastoralism and Politics, 116–18.
44. On the Worr Liban alliance, see CitationSchlee, “Interethnic Clan Identities”; and CitationSchlee, Identities on the Move.
45. ‘The Gabbra and Boran have intermarried and practically a new tribe is in existence’; notes on Marsabit affairs 1925: Col. Muirhead Kenya National Archives: PC NFD 4/1/2.
46. CitationWatson, “‘Hardening of Lines.’”
47. CitationWatson, “‘Hardening of Lines.’”
48. CitationMwangi, “Kenya,” 81.
49. CitationSalesa, “Cops Blames Dead MPs.”
50. CitationSchlee and Shongolo, Pastoralism and Politics.
51. This reflects the partial immunity of the north from the violence of 2007–08: northern Kenya was least affected although it could not easily procure supplies of basic commodities from Nairobi. In the case of Marsabit and Moyale towns, they could access supplies instead from Ethiopia.
52. See the blog post by Kochore at: http://focusonthehorn.wordpress.com/2012/11/08/we-shall-return-elections-anxiety-and-prophecies-in-northern-kenya/.
53. CitationSobania, “Pastoralist Migration and Colonial Policy.”
54. CitationSchlee, “Interethnic Clan Identities.”
55. CitationSchlee and Shongolo, Pastoralism and Politics, 141.
56. CitationHuman Rights Watch, Bring the Gun or You'll Die, 15.
57. CitationHuman Rights Watch, Bring the Gun or You'll Die, 17.
58. CitationHuman Rights Watch, Bring the Gun or You'll Die, 16–17.
59. See the blog post “Billow Kerrow and Murulle Leaders Decry Police and Military Operation” at: http://www.somalipost.net/billow-kerrow-and-murulle-leaders-decry-police-and-military-operation/.
60. CitationAnonymous, “Ethnic Clashes Claims Four More Lives.”
61. CitationMenkhaus, Kenya–Somalia Border Conflict Analysis, 51.
62. CitationMenkhaus, Kenya–Somalia Border Conflict Analysis, 51.
63. The Mandera Times January 1, 2013.
64. The Mandera Times January 1, 2013.
65. CitationOngeri, “Mandera Sacrifices Democracy.”
66. CitationOngeri, “Mandera Sacrifices Democracy.”
67. CitationThe Standard, “Borana Seek Ethiopian Elder's Help.”
68. CitationSalesa, “Marsabit Race for Governor.”
69. CitationLegesse, Gada.
70. CitationAbdi, “Ethiopian Elders Pick Borana Candidate.”
71. CitationAbdi, “Borana's Ethiopian King Fails.”
72. A remark made by Ruto at a campaign rally in Mandera, as reported by a Garre resident of Eastleigh.
73. CitationRiba, “Grenade Explodes.”
74. CitationMenya, “Uhuru Got More Votes.”
75. CitationSchlee, Identities on the Move, 14.
76. North Horr Constituency. http://election.marsgroupkenya.org/2013/places/constituencies/046/north-horr/.
77. CitationSalesa, “Clan Politics Gives URP Win.”
78. See the blog post “Signed, Sealed and Delivered by the Garre Council of Elders” at: http://manderastar.wordpress.com/2013/05/19/signed-sealed-and-delivered-by-the-garre-council-of-elders-2/.
79. See the blog post “We Didn't Leave ODM. ODM Left Us” at: http://manderacounty.wordpress.com/2013/03/19/we-didnt-leave-odm-odm-left-us/.
80. CitationLivingstone, A Comparative Study, 17.
82. CitationSchlee and Shongolo, Pastoralism and Politics, 15.
83. CitationCowen and Kanyinga, “1997 Elections in Kenya,” 156.
84. CitationWachira, “Clan Rivalry and Politics Spark Killings.”
85. CitationIRIN, “Insecurity Hampers Access to Aid.”
86. CitationNTV, “Cord MPs Say Ruto Broke the Law.”
87. CitationSugow, “Insecurity Soars in Wajir.”
88. For the results, see . On the clashes, see, for example: http://mobile.nation.co.ke/News/GSU+deployed+in+volatile+northern+Kenya+counties+/-/1950946/1970972/-/format/xhtml/-/kxr44xz/-/index.html/.