![Sample our Area Studies journals, sign in here to start your access, latest two full volumes FREE to you for 14 days]({"type":"image" , "src" : "/sda/5922/TOC-Subject-Sample-2021-Area-Studies.jpg"})
ABSTRACT
This article examines the evolving rivalry between Eritrea and Ethiopia in light of military clashes between the two countries that occurred in June 2016. Drawing on rationalist understandings of international politics, it illustrates the calculus that sustained the rivalry for nearly 16 years. These forces, while sufficient to have maintained the situation of “no war, no peace” for a considerable period of time, gave way to a new set of dynamics that significantly eroded the fragile status quo. In that context, a slow, but perceptible shift in the regional balance power seemed to have increased the risk of another round of military conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia. While Ethiopia’s recent selection of a new prime minister has created real possibility of a reset of Eritrea-Ethiopia relations, the underlying structural dynamics between the two countries remain volatile. For better or worse, Africa’s most intractable interstate rivalry sits at a critical juncture.
Acknowledgements
The author would like to thank Harry Verhoeven, Jason Mosley, Dan Connell, Alden Young, and Pythias Temesgen for feedback on this article, in addition to participants at Boston University’s Rodney Seminar and two anonymous reviewers.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
Notes
1. Maasho. “Ethiopia Says Will Not Escalate Border Clash with Eritrea.”
2. Joseph. “Eritrea, Ethiopia Trade Blame After Border Clash.”
3. Miles. “Eritrea Accuses Ethiopia of Contemplating Full-Scale War.”
4. Roessler and Verhoeven, Why Comrades Go to War.
5. Dunn and Shaw, Africa's Challenge to International Relations Theory.
6. Tronvoll and Negash, Brothers at War; Jacquin-Berdal and Plaut, Unfinished Business: Eritrea and Ethiopia at War; Woldemariam, “Partition Problems”; Woldemariam and Young, “After the Split.”
7. Reid, Eritrea's External Relations.
8. Mosley, “Beyond the Impasse.”
9. It should be acknowledged that there is some research on Eritrea-Ethiopia relations that explicitly draws on international relations theory. See Lyons, “Eritrea-Ethiopia and the Search for Peace,” for the use of “regional security complexes” in the context of Eritrea-Ethiopia relations and the broader Horn of Africa region. Also see Salih Nur's, “Foreign Policy of Eritrea,” for analysis of Eritrean foreign policy and the “democratic peace.”
10. Fearon, “Rationalist Explanations for War.”
11. Fearon, “Domestic Political Audiences.”
12. Author's interviews, former TPLF Central Committee Member, May 6, 2015, Eritrean Diplomat, July 2012, and multiple conversations with PFDJ cadres between 2009 and 2015. These beliefs are obvious to anyone that has listened to the standard historical narratives of TPLF and PFDJ cadres about their relations, either on social media or in other spaces.
13. Donald Yamamoto, “Ethiopia's Plans and Intentions for Eritrea”; For a more recent articulation of this perspective, see the comments of senior TPLF personality, Yemane Kidane, which can found in in Shushay Adane. “Ethiopia: Efforts to Normalize Ethio-Eritrea Conflict, Critical Challenges” Ethiopian Herald, April 25, 2018. http://allafrica.com/stories/201804250583.html [accessed: May 23, 2018]
14. Lie and Mesfin, “Ethiopia,” 32, 77.
15. Multiple conversations with PFDJ cadres between 2009 and 2015.
16. Lefort, “Leadership in Disarray”.
17. Addis Fortune. “Changing Ethio-Eritrea Standoff Seeks New Policy Approach.” Feb 29, 2016. http://addisfortune.net/columns/changing-ethio-eritrea-standoff-seeks-new-policy-approach/ [accessed: May 23, 2018]
18. Harbeson, “Ethiopia's Extended Transition,” 154–6.
19. Meles Zenawi articulated this point well in 2005 discussions with US diplomats, citing the potential for “political backlash domestically” and warning that “To agree to demarcation (without dialogue) would be like shooting ourselves in the head.” See Vikki Huddleston, “Ethiopia: Meles Says UNSC Draft Resolution on Border Jeopardizes Peace.”
20. Kibreab, “The National Service/Warsai-Yikealo Development Campaign.”
21. World Development Indicators, World Bank.
22. Connell, “From resistance to governance”; Plaut, Understanding Eritrea; Stevis and Parkinson. “Thousands Flee Isolated Eritrea to Escape Life of Conscription and Poverty.”
23. Author's conversation, former high-ranking PFDJ official, May 2016.
24. For research on the broader theme of diversionary war, see Oakes, Diversionary War.
25. Tesfanews. “Let Ethiopia withdraw in the Morning to Start Dialogue in the Afternoon: Amb. Girma Asmerom.” January 29, 2013. https://www.tesfanews.net/let-ethiopia-withdraw-in-the-morning-to-start-dialogue-in-the-afternoon-amb-girma-asmerom/ [accessed: May 23, 2018]; Al Jazeera. “Ethiopia PM Willing to Talk to Eritrea.” Al Jazeera, December 6, 2012. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/12/2012125145129652231.html [accessed: May 23, 2018]
26. Powell, In the Shadow of Power.
27. Yamamoto, “Ethiopia's Plans and Intentions for Eritrea”; Weldemichael, “Formative Alliances.”
28. Schibbye, “Voices from the Other Side.”
29. VOA. “Proxy War Stokes Tension Between Ethiopia, Eritrea.”
30. According to one TPLF leader, the stalemate created a policy of “we shall see who dies first” on the part of both governments. Former TPLF Central Committee Member, May 6, 2015.
31. Although highly polemical, Y. Ghebrehiwet provides a good summary of the Ethiopian policy of containment and proportional response—what he calls the “waiting game.” See Ghebrehiwet, “Ethiopia and Eritrea.” It should be said that Ethiopia's Eritrea policy was a reflection of the Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy and Strategy released in 2002. See Ministry of Information, “FDRE Foreign Affairs and National Security Strategy.”
32. Indian Ocean Newsletter, “Air force in rapid decline,” July 21, 2012.
33. Efrem. “Warsai-Yikealo Secondary School”
34. It is important to recognize that the outflow of conscripts greatly enhanced the quality of Ethiopian intelligence, as most National Service conscripts were debriefed by Ethiopia's National Intelligence Security Services before their release into the refugee camps. Western intelligence services think that this had led to a situation where the ENDF had a fairly in-depth knowledge of the “order of battle” of the Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF). Author's interview, Western intelligence official, July 2016.
35. Conversation with former EDF member and NS recruit, July 2012. This description of EDF units was typical of what I have heard from former EDF members over the last several years.
36. Author's interview, Hizbawi Serawit member, June 2016.
37. Bruton, “A Frightening Flare-Up”.
38. Eritrea's Minister of Defense (now Minister of Mines), Sebhat Efrem has confirmed this point, noting that the lack of strategic depth was a major issue in the last border war. See Schibbye, “Voices from the other side”.
39. Tronvoll. “Mot en losning av Eritrea-Etiopia-krigen?”
40. Email communication with well-placed Ethiopian intellectual, who recounted what a senior EPRDF official had told him about the motives for the attack, April 2015.
41. Meet EBC. “Interview with Getachew Reda.” Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation, June 7, 2016. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IdlfrwK5pA [accessed: May 23, 2018]
42. Maasho. “Ethiopia Says Will Not Escalate Border Clash with Eritrea”
43. BBC News. “Migrant Crisis”
44. Kate Lyons. “Hundreds of Eritreans’ asylum applications still ‘incorrectly refused.’” The Guardian, July 28, 2016. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jul/28/hundreds-of-eritrea-asylum-applications-still-incorrectly-refused [accessed: May 23, 2018]; Stefania Summermatter. “Eritreans in Switzerland Come under Scrutiny.”
45. Salem Solomon. “EU Appears Poised to Resume Development Aid to Eritrea.”
46. Pelz. “Germany and Eritrea”
47. Many of the slated projects under the 11th European Development Fund targeted the energy sector, but it appears the funds were not dispersed due to Asmara's unwillingness to implement reforms in other areas. Blair. “Eritrea Won't Shorten National Service Despite Migration Fears.” ; Email communication with Europe-based scholar with knowledge of the situation, May 2018; Author's conversation, Dutch diplomat, June 2016; Author's conversation, senior European diplomat based in Asmara, November 3, 2015.
48. Muller, “Representing Eritrea.”
49. Author's conversation, Dutch diplomat, June 2016.
50. This is not an EPRDF source, but it is a good articulation of what an alternative policy approach would look like. See Gebreleul, “Out of Eritrea.”
51. Juneau, “Iran's Policy Towards the Houthis.”
52. Shabait, “Statement of the Foreign Ministry.”
53. Cannon and Rossiter, “Ethiopia, Berbera Port and the Shifting Balance of Power,” 14–15.
54. Mello and Knights, “West of Suez.”
55. “Somalia-Eritrea Monitoring Group Report,” 11–15. November 2, 2015. http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/un-documents/search.php?IncludeBlogs=10&limit=15&tag=%22Sanctions%20Committee%20Documents%22+AND+%22Eritrea%22&ctype=Eritrea&rtype=Sanctions%20Committee%20Documents&cbtype=eritrea [accessed: May 23, 2018]; Blair, “Crisis Give Eritrea Routes for Closer Global Engagement.”; Email communication in May 2018 with a Europe-based scholar with knowledge of the situation indicates that Riyadh and Abu Dhabi provided “in kind” assistance to the Eritrea, in the form of “refined fuel products” and “investments in energy,” presumably as a way of avoiding any sanctions violations.
56. Kaplan, “Eritrea's Economy.”
57. Erlich, Saudi Arabia and Ethiopia.
58. Cannon and Rossiter, “Ethiopia, Berbera Port and the Shifting Balance of Power.”
59. Oxford Analytica Daily Brief. “Gulf alliances leave Eritrea in hostile neighborhood.” April 27, 2018.
60. The Reporter. “Ethiopia: Aggrandized Hailemariam.” November 28, 2015. http://allafrica.com/stories/201511300817.html [accessed: May 23, 2018]
61. Lefort, “The ‘Ethiopian Spring.’”
62. Neamin Zeleke. “The Myth of a Stable Ethiopia under a Minority Regime.”
63. BBC News. “Ethiopia Blames Egypt and Eritrea Over Unrest.”
64. Davison. “Ethiopian Military-Run Company Seeks More Foreign Partners.”
65. Lefort, “A Leadership in Disarray.”
66. Ibid.
67. For an example of the military top brass blocking more conciliatory approaches towards Asmara, see Indian Ocean Newsletter, “Hailemariam Desalegn bows down to the military.” July 15, 2016.
68. Indian Ocean Newsletter, “Desalegn wants to put paid to Eritrean threat.” March 24, 2017; Indian Ocean Newsletter, “Ethiopia adopts war-like stance against Asmara.” April 7, 2017; Indian Ocean Newsletter, “Eritrea, everybody's favorite enemy.” June 23, 2017; Lie and Mesfin, “Ethiopia,” 33–34.
69. The relationship between signaling, resolve, and deterrence is a key part of “rational deterrence theory” in the field of international relations. See Huth, “Deterrence and International Conflict;” For more on the preventative logic of war in international relations, see Levy, “Preventative War”; For more on “limited war,” see Ladwig, “A Cold Start for Hot Wars.”
70. Ezega. “Ethiopia to Have a New Policy Direction on Eritrea?
71. Email communication with Western intellectual who has discussed the matter with EPRDF officials, May 2018.
72. Tronvoll. “Mot en losning av Eritrea-Etiopia-krigen?”
73. BBC News. “Ethiopia PM Abiy Ahmed Wants to Resolve Eritrea Disputes.”
74. “Getachew Reda on speculations … ” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IdlfrwK5pA&t=12s [accessed: May 23, 2018]; Fana. “State Minister Hirut receives UN Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea,” May 9, 2018. http://www.fanabc.com/english/index.php/component/k2/item/12026?Itemid=674 [accessed: May 23, 2018]
75. BBC News. “Ethiopia PM Abiy Ahmed Wants to Resolve Eritrea Disputes.”
76. Consider the fact that in his opening countrywide tour, PM Abiy raised the Eritrea issue in his public speech in Mekelle, but as far as this author is aware, not in his speeches in other regions.
77. “Ethiopian Tigrayans say that they should give Badme to Eritrea.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PCjjm32GQtg [accessed: May 23, 2018]; Adane. “Ethiopia.”