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ABSTRACT
Devolution introduced new local-level political offices in order to transform Kenyan politics by reducing the high stakes around the presidential race. The controversy over the 2017 presidential election rerun, however, saw pressure on county-level politicians to support either the ruling party or opposition coalition, underlining the important intersection between national and county politics. Using a broadened definition of ‘political linkages’, this paper explores the logics shaping how and why county-level politicians responded to the rerun as they did, comparing ruling party and opposition areas. Different forms of linkage politics indicate that devolution’s effect on central power is not uniform across counties, challenging the view that devolution simply leads to a recentralisation of power. The reproduction of national partisan divides at the county level suggests that devolution’s effect on central power is contingent partly on the way that national and county political alliances intersect. Given Kenya’s fluid national electoral alliances, devolution’s effect on central power is therefore not stable and may change with each electoral cycle.
Acknowledgements
The research for this article would not have been possible without the assistance and insights of Kevin Obware, Mohammed Seif Mbaruk and Mahmoud Noor. The author would also like to thank Elena Gadjanova, Dan Hodgkinson, Dan Paget and Sam Wilkins and the two anonymous reviewers for their help in strengthening this article.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.
Notes
1 Ernest Cornel. “NASA Stages Peaceful Demos, Chants ‘No Reforms No Election.” The Star, 3 October. https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/10/03/nasa-stages-peaceful-demos-chantsno-reforms-no-election_c1645481.
2 ‘County politicians’ refers to all elected positions within the county as a political unit: governor, senator, member of parliament, women’s representative and member of county assembly.
3 Jason Burke. “Kenyan President Declared Winner of Disputed Election Rerun.” The Guardian, 30 October 2017. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/30/kenyan-police-hunt-oppositionpoliticians-they-blame-for-violence. Turnout figures for Kenyan elections are typically high: 2013 (86%), August 2017 (78%).
4 Kramon and Posner, “Kenya’s New Constitution,” 89.
5 Cornell and D’Arcy, Devolution, Democracy and Development, 8.
6 Kitschelt, “Linkages between Citizens Politicians.” On Kenya, see: Barkan and Okumu, “Linkage Without Parties” and Barkan and Okumu, “Legislators, Elections Political Linkage.”
7 On the role of intermediaries in linkages, see: Stokes et al., Brokers, Voters and Clientelism.
8 For mobilisation around the defence of community interests see Lynch, I Say to You; Chome, “Devolution Only for Development,” and Carrier and Kochore, “Navigating Ethnicity and Electoral Politics.”
9 Mombasa and Kisumu are the examples used for this paper, but other parts of the country were also affected. Protests took place in Nairobi, as well as parts of former Western and Eastern provinces. Like Kisumu, the rerun did not take place at all in Siaya, Homa Bay and Migori counties given popular resistance.
10 Boone, “Decentralisation as Political Strategy”; Boone, “State Building in African Countryside”. and Lewis, “Decentralization Leads to Recentralization.”
11 Cheeseman et al., “Decentralisation in Kenya,” 8.
12 I volunteered as a short-term observer for the Carter Center’s international election observation mission to Kenya.
13 Throup and Hornsby, Multi-Party Elections in Kenya.
14 Mueller, “Political Economy Kenya Crisis” and Chege, “Back from the Brink.”
15 Kasfir, “Agency Across Changing Sites.”
16 Ghai, “Devolution: Restructuring Kenyan State.”
17 MCAs replaced local councillors that existed under the local government system. See Moss, “The Dilemma of Councillors.”
18 Cheeseman et al., “Decentralisation in Kenya,” 15.
19 Lewis, “Decentralization Leads to Recentralization”, Ndegwa, “Decentralization in Africa.”
20 Boone, “Decentralisation as Political Strategy.”
21 Barkan and Chege, “Decentralising the State.”
22 Cheeseman, “Kenya Since 2002.”
23 Cheeseman et al., “Decentralisation in Kenya,” 8.
24 Kitschelt, “Linkages between Citizens Politicians”; Kitschelt and Wilkinson, Patrons, Clients and Policies and Dalton, Political Parties and Democratic Linkage.
25 For a detailed discussion of the variety of clientelist linkages, see Stoker et al., Brokers, Voters and Clientelism. Also see: Lemarchand, “Political Clientelism and Ethnicity” and Van de Walle, “Presidentialism and Clientelism.”
26 Barkan, “Comment: Further Reassessment,” 453 and Barkan and Okumu, “Linkage Without Parties,” 297–9.
27 Cheeseman, “Political Linkage,” 17.
28 Stokes et al., Brokers, Voters and Clientelism.
29 Cheeseman et al., “Decentralisation in Kenya,” 5.
30 Kitschelt and Wilkinson, Patrons, Clients and Policies.
31 Hassan, “Continuity Without Change” and Cheeseman et al., “Decentralisation in Kenya,” 23–8.
32 Although the Supreme Court did not overturn these results, many in the opposition continued to contest their legitimacy.
33 Interview with a local political analyst, Nairobi, 19 August 2017.
34 Field notes from Jubilee election rally in Marsabit, 26 July 2017.
35 Burbidge, “Where Devolution Should Not be Working.”
36 Ibid.
37 Hannah Waddilove. “Kenya Voted for Change and Got it…at the Local Level.” African Arguments, 18 August 2017. http://africanarguments.org/2017/08/18/kenya-voted-for-changeand-got-it-at-the-local-level-elections/.
38 Interviews in Nairobi, Marsabit, Mombasa and Bungoma between April and October 2017.
39 Conversion with Nairobi-based political analyst, 1 November 2017.
40 Oliver Mathenge. “Jubilee MPs to be Uhuru’s Chief Agents.” The Star, 27 September 2017. https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/09/27/jubilee-mps-to-be-uhurus-chief-agents_c1642435.
41 Jacob Ng’etich and Geoffrey Mosoku. “Uhuru and Ruto Push for Numbers in Their Campaigns.” The Standard, 21 October 2017. https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001257935/uhuru-and-ruto-push-for-numbers-in-their-campaigns.
42 Justus Wanga and Wanjohi Githae. “Uhuru and Ruto Stick with Original Campaign Teams for Re-run.” Daily Nation, 10 September 2017. https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Uhuru--Raila-retain-campaign-teams-for-re-run/1064-4089580-156f41kz/index.html.
43 European Union, Kenya: Final Report.
44 Imende Benjamin. “Uhuru Aims for Big Gains in 13 Swing Vote Counties.” The Star, 1 April 2017. https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/04/01/uhuru-aims-for-big-gains-in-13-swing-vote-counties_c1534904.
45 Interview with MCA, Marsabit, 15 July 2017.
46 Email communication with local researcher, February 28, 2018.
47 Stephen Rutto. “I Will Work with Uhuru to Develop Turkana, Governor Nanok Now Says.” The Star, 16 August 2017. https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/08/16/i-will-work-with-uhuru-to-develop-turkana-governor-nanok-now-says_c1616368.
48 Daily Nation. “Jubilee, NASA All Out to Win Over Voters in Election Countdown.” 9 September 2017. https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Jubilee--Nasa-all-out-to-win-over-voters-inelection-countdown-/1064-4088982-3akt4az/index.html.
49 Haugerud, The Culture of Politics, 26.
50 NASA’s coalition parties and co-principals included Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement, Kalonzo Musoyoka’s Wiper Democratic Movement-Kenya, Musalia Mudavadi’s Amani National Congress, and Moses Wetangula’s FORD-Kenya. Isaac Ruto, former Bomet governor, was in the alliance up until the 8 August poll.
51 Field notes, Taita Taveta during election observation, 9 August 2017.
52 The main geographical exception was Turkana, where ODM governor Josephat Nanok was running again.
53 These included: Narok, Nyamira, Kisii, Turkana, Tana River, Wajir, Trans Nzoia, Samburu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Lamu and Nairobi. These counties saw both candidates receive around 50% of the vote for the 8 August results.
54 The two exceptions were Kitui and Machakos, where the presidential result went overwhelmingly to Odinga but locally popular gubernatorial candidates won on non-NASA party tickets. Otherwise, NASA won 17 county governorships.
55 Daily Nation, “Nasa to Increase Anti-IEBC Demos.” 7 October 2017. https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Nasa-to-increase-anti-IEBC-demos/1064-4128902-1jxei5/index.html.
56 Interviews conducted across counties with MCAs from January – September 2017.
57 Daily Nation, “Business in County Assemblies Starts as Speakers Sworn in.” 5 September 2017. https://www.nation.co.ke/counties/County-Speakers-sworn-in/1107872-4083326-1m3n8sz/index.html.
58 D’Arcy and Cornell, “Devolution and Corruption.”
59 Jubilee counties were also forming their governments; however, given fewer stakes in the rerun, in NASA counties, local politics were prioritised to a greater extent.
60 ‘Baba’ refers to Raila Odinga. Field notes, Nairobi, 1 June 2017.
61 Joho won re-election with 65% (220,265 votes), an improvement on his 49% in 2013 (132,583 votes).
62 Philip Mwakio. “Nelson Marwa Threatens to Arrest Governor Joho Over 22-acre Plot Dispute.” The Standard, 3 October 2016. https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000218201/nelsonmarwa-threatens-to-arrest-governor-joho-over-22-acre-plot-disput.
63 Ngala Chome. “Joho and Sonko Lead Rise of Defiant Politics.” The Standard, 16 April 2017. https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001236481/joho-and-sonko-lead-rise-of-defiant-politics.
64 Fadhili Frederick. “Joho Unhappy with Move to Set Up Dry Port in Naivasha.” Daily Nation, 13 February 2017. https://mobile.nation.co.ke/counties/Naivasha-dry-port-angers-Joho/1950480-3811436-10q7sa6z/index.htm.
65 Linah Benyawa. “State Now Withdraws Governors Hassan Joho and Amason Kingi’s Security.” The Standard, 11 March 2016. https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000194524/statenow-withdraws-governors-hassan-joho-and-amason-kingi-s-security.
66 Interview with Governor Hassan Joho, Mombasa, 7 April 2017.
67 Interviews with five MCAs, Mombasa, June 2018.
68 Mohamed Ahmed. “No Presidential Election in Mombasa County, Only Anti-IEBC Protest: MCAs.” Daily Nation, 19 October 2017. https://www.nation.co.ke/counties/mombasa/Noelection-Mombasa-MCAs-warn-IEBC/1954178-4147030-146eitxz/index.html.
69 Interview with Governor Hassan Joho, Mombasa, 7 April 2017.
70 Interview with MCA, Mombasa, 21 June 2018.
71 Phone conversation with a political campaigner, Mombasa, 28 October 2017.
72 Mjikendas are considered to be an important voting bloc in Mombasa and all main gubernatorial candidates had Mjikenda running mates in the 2017 elections. For 2013 elections, see: Willis and Chome, “Marginalization and Political Participation.”
73 Phone conversation with a political campaigner, Mombasa, 28 October 2017.
74 Cyrus Ombati and Protus Onyango. “Controversy Over Matiang’i ban on demos in CBD.” The Standard, 13 October 2017. https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001257219/controversyover-matiang-i-ban-on-demos-in-cbd.
75 Phone conversation with a local journalist, Mombasa, 27 October 2017.
76 Haki Africa, What do we tell the families?
77 Written conversation over social media, 15 October 2017.
78 Phone interview with a civil society activist, Mombasa, 8 February 2018.
79 Ibid.
80 Waddilove, “Kenya voted for change”, op. cit.
81 In Mombasa, Kenyatta received 23.79% of the vote in 2013 and 29.09% on 8 August 2017.
82 Morrison, “The nature of decline,” 118 and Lonsdale, “Soil, Work, Civilisation,” 310.
83 Morrison, “The nature of decline,” 117.
84 Phone interview with a local radio journalist, Kisumu, 23 February 2018.
85 Human Rights Watch, Kill Those Criminals.
86 Interview with MCA, Kisumu, 17 June 2018.
87 Press conference recording of Nyong’o, Kisumu, 25 October 2017. Supplied by Reuters.
88 Interview with a grassroots activist, Kisumu, 16 June 2018.
89 Interview with MCA, Kisumu, 17 June 2018; phone interview with a civil society activist, Kisumu, 23 February 2018.
90 Ibid.
91 Phone interview with Nairobi-based foreign correspondent, 19 February 2018.
92 Phone interview with a civil society activist, Kisumu, 26 February 2018.
93 Phone interview with a local newspaper journalist, Kisumu, 23 February 2018.
94 Daily Nation, “Looting as Nasa’s Anti-IEBC Demos Turn Ugly in Nyanza.” 6 October 2017. https://www.nation.co.ke/news/Looting-as-Nasa-anti-IEBC-demos-turn-ugly-in-Nyanza/1056-4128108-h4tc1vz/index.html.
95 Phone interview with a civil society activist, Kisumu, 26 February 2018.
96 Phone interview with a civil society activist, Kisumu, 23 February 2018.
97 Ibid.
98 Interview with a grassroots activist, Kisumu, 16 June 2018.
99 Phone interview with a civil society activist, Kisumu, 26 February 2018.
100 Ibid.
101 Press conference recording of Nyong’o, Kisumu, 25 October 2017. Supplied by Reuters.
102 Cheeseman, “The Kenyan elections of 2007.”
103 Phone interview with a civil society activist, Kisumu, 23 February 2018.
