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ABSTRACT
Could there be coattail effects in the absence of strong parties? How would such effects manifest in countries with ethnic and personality-based politics? Kenya’s 2017 election presents an opportunity for a theoretical and empirical contribution to the study of coattail effects in plural societies. With the newly-created and highly attractive positions of county governors, down-ticket races became a lot more competitive, forcing parties to make difficult choices: which races to focus on, how to apportion limited resources across the ballots, and how to forge alliances with local leaders whose networks were key to success in the battlegrounds. Presidential candidates found themselves in a precarious position: endorsing governor aspirants in competitive races could cause a backlash, failing to endorse could signal a lack of confidence in key figures and jeopardize all six positions on the ballot. I argue that coattail effects in Kenya’s 2017 election were conditional on governors receiving clear and public endorsements by the presidential candidates and that effects flowed from presidential candidates to governor aspirants in parties’ strongholds, and vice-versa in battleground counties. The findings have implications for theories of coattail effects, campaign strategy, legislative fragmentation, and citizen-politician linkages in settings with personality-based politics and weakly-institutionalised parties.
Acknowledgements
The fieldwork for this research was supported by the Max Planck Institute for the Study of Religious and Ethnic Diversity, Goettingen, Germany.
Disclosure Statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.
Notes
1 Habil Onyango. “No Riding on Baba’s Coattails, three told as they eye Homa Bay top job.” The Star, May 16, 2017.
2 Hilton Otenyo. “Raila must stop call for 6-piece voting.” The Star, June 7, 2017.
3 Ignatius Odanga. “ODM leaders clash over 6-piece voting pattern.” The Standard, June 2, 2017.
4 The Standard, “Uhuru’s tough balancing act as he pursues Mt Kenya vote.” July 8, 2017.
5 Ibid.
6 Ibid.
7 Cheeseman, Lynch, and Willis, “Decentralisation in Kenya.”
8 Cornell and D’Arcy, “Plus Ça Change ?”
9 Martha Karua, Anne Waiguru, Charity Ngilu and Peter Kenneth are just a few of the politicians with national profile who entered the race for governor.
10 Ames, “The Reverse Coattails Effect.”
11 Ichino and Nathan, “Do Primaries Improve Electoral Performance?”
12 Throup and Hornsby, Multi-Party Politics in Kenya; Rutten, Mazrui, and Grignon, Out for the Count; Wanyama, “Voting without Institutionalized Political Parties”; Willis and Chome, “Marginalization and Political Participation on the Kenya Coast”; Gona, “Changing Political Faces on Kenya’s Coast, 1992–2007”; Mitullah, “Negotiated Democracy: A Double-Barrelled Sword.”
13 “Three-piece suit” refers to calls for voting straight ticket for presidential, parliamentary, and local candidates in Kenya since 1992.
14 Miller, “Presidential Coattails.”
15 Ibid, 354.
16 Ames, “The Reverse Coattails Effect”; Broockman, “Do Congressional Candidates Have Reverse Coattails?”
17 Campbell and Sumners, “Presidential Coattails in Senate Elections.”
18 Egner and Stoiber, “A Transferable Incumbency Effect in Local Elections”; Cox, “How Electoral Reform Might Affect the Number of Political Parties in The Netherlands”; Langston, “Governors and ‘Their’ Deputies”; Samuels, “The Gubernatorial Coattails Effect.”
19 Campbell and Sumners, “Presidential Coattails in Senate Elections.”
20 Egner and Stoiber, “A Transferable Incumbency Effect in Local Elections.”
21 Oloo, “The Contemporary Opposition in Kenya,” 100.
22 Throup and Hornsby, Multi-Party Politics in Kenya, 445–51.
23 Throup and Hornsby, Multi-Party Politics in Kenya; Rutten, Mazrui, and Grignon, Out for the Count; Gona, “Changing Political Faces on Kenya’s Coast, 1992–2007”; Oloo, “The Contemporary Opposition in Kenya.”
24 Kanyinga, “Mix-and-Match Parties and Persons.”
25 Ames, “The Reverse Coattails Effect.”
26 Oloo, “The Contemporary Opposition in Kenya”; Wanyama, “Voting without Institutionalized Political Parties.”
27 Throup and Hornsby, Multi-Party Politics in Kenya, 412–17; Oloo, “The Contemporary Opposition in Kenya.”
28 Throup and Hornsby, Multi-Party Politics in Kenya; Rutten, Mazrui, and Grignon, Out for the Count.
29 Masese, “Negotiating History for Negotiated Democracy,” 137.
30 David Muchui, “Uhuru Laikipia visit Yield Bittersweet Fruit for Hopefulls Eyeing Various Seats,” Daily Nation, July 30, 2017.
31 David Muchui, “Munya’s to Battle Kiraitu as he Prepares for Presidency,” Daily Nation, July 6, 2017.
32 Daily Nation, “Uhuru meets disgruntled voters, aspirants in Nyandarua,” June 4, 2017.
33 John Wanjohi, “Blow to Kabogo as Uhuru Endorses Waitutu for Kiambu Governor,” Mwakilishi, June 19, 2017. Accessed March 9, 2018. http://www.mwakilishi.com/article/kenya-news/2017-06-19/blow-to-kabogo-as-uhuru-endorses-waititu-for-kiambu-governor. Cf. Lockwood, “The Buffalo and the Squirrel,” in this issue, for a different analysis of Kabogo’s popularity troubles.
34 Infotrak, “Governors Approval Rating | County Trak Kenya.” Accessed March 27, 2018. http://countytrak.infotrakresearch.com/governors-approval-rating/.
35 Okoth and Omenga, “New Constitution, Odingaism and the State of Internal Democracy.”
36 Ibid.
37 Quoted in ibid, p. 205
38 Philip Muasya, “Battle to Oust Alfred Mutua Will Be Vicious- Kilonzo Jnr,” City News, September 5, 2016.
39 Kenya Today, “Governor Alfred Mutua COMPLETELY FINISHED As Hon Wavinya Ndeti WINS Wiper Party Nominations and BAGS VP Kalonzo ENDORSEMENT,” May 7, 2017; Stanley Kiwia, “Why Mutua May Not Retain Machakos Seat in 2017,” Hivisasa, May 19, 2015.
40 Op. cit., “Governors Approval Rating.”
41 Ibid, 198–199.
42 Brian Ojamaa, “Jubilee loses as novice sends its pointman Lusaka packing,” The Star, August 11, 2017.
43 Cited in Dan Kasina, “Homa Bay town turned frenzy shortly after Raila’s speech,” July 17, 2017. Accessed March 10, 2018. https://kasinadan.wordpress.com/2017/07/17/homa-bay-town-went-to-frenzy-shortly-after-railas-speech-video/.
44 Daily Nation, “High turnout, forays into Nasa strongholds pay off for Uhuru,” August 13, 2017.
45 Interview with Wafula Buke, Nairobi, June 30, 2017.
46 Linda Shiundu, “Council of Governors thank Uhuru for rewarding political losers with cabinet jobs,” Accessed March 27, 2018. https://www.tuko.co.ke/262321-council-governors-uhuru-rewarding-political-losers-cabinet-jobs.html#262321.
47 Elischer, “Ethnic Coalitions of Convenience and Commitment’; Khadiagala, ‘Political Movements and Coalition Politics in Kenya”
48 Interviews with ODM, Wiper, Amani, and Jubilee party strategists, Nairobi, June 15–20, 2017.
49 Scarritt, “The Strategic Choice of Multiethnic Parties in Zambia’s Dominant and Personalist Party System.”
50 Anderson, “Vigilantes, Violence and the Politics of Public Order in Kenya”; Boone, “Politically Allocated Land Rights and the Geography of Electoral Violence”; De Smedt, ‘‘No Raila, No Peace!”; on the impact of rumours, see also, Lockwood, “The Buffalo and the Squirrel.”
51 Tsuma Nyassy, Daniel and Fadhili Fredrick, “Mvurya shows his might as he retains governor’s seat,” Daily Nation, August 10, 2017.
52 George Jaramba, “Report on Political Campaigns in Kwale County for the Month of July 2017,” Kenya Human Rights Commission, July 2017.
53 Ibid.
54 Gerald Bwisa, “Sibling rivalry headache for Khaemba, Nasa in polls,” Daily Nation, July 28, 2017.
55 Citizen Digital, “I don’t regret ditching NASA – Governor Hussein Dado,” March 28, 2017. Accessed March 11, 2018. https://citizentv.co.ke/news/i-dont-regret-ditching-nasa-governor-hussein-dado-162050/.
56 See Masese, “Negotiating History for Negotiated Democracy”; and Mitullah, “Negotiated Democracy: A Double-Barrelled Sword.”
57 The Standard, “Governor thrown under the bus in clan nominations,” August 16, 2016.
58 Daily Nation, “Land, water shape agenda in race for Tana River governor’s seat,” June 9, 2017.
59 The Star, “Tana River elites make deal to share county seats in 2017,” May 17, 2016.
60 The Standard, “Kisii Wiper party governor running mate endorses re-election of Governor Ongwae,” August 7, 2017.
61 Mitullah, “Negotiated Democracy: A Double-Barrelled Sword”
62 Kenya Today, “IPSOS Synovate poll names Uhuru, Mike Sonko and Raila top most popular leaders nationwide” September 14, 2014.
63 Author interview with Jubilee campaign official, Nairobi, June 21, 2017.
64 Dauti Kahura, “The Sonkonization of Nairobi: How Mike Sonko is Reshaping City Politics” The Elephant, August 7, 2017. https://www.theelephant.info/features/2017/08/07/the-sonkonization-of-nairobi-how-mike-sonko-is-reshaping-city-politics/
65 Musdaf Abdullahi, “Negotiated democracy’s dark side,” The Star, February 20, 2017.
66 Ichino and Nathan, “Do Primaries Improve Electoral Performance?”
67 Adams and Merrill, “Candidate and Party Strategies in Two-Stage Elections Beginning with a Primary”; Serra, “Why Primaries?”
68 Lengle, “Divisive Presidential Primaries and Party Electoral Prospects, 1932–1976”; Southwell, “The Politics of Disgruntlement.”
69 Ichino and Nathan, “Do Primaries Improve Electoral Performance?”
70 Kanyinga, “Mix-and-Match Parties and Persons”; Wanyama, “Voting without Institutionalized Political Parties”; Rutten, Mazrui, and Grignon, Out for the Count; Throup and Hornsby, Multi-Party Politics in Kenya; Gona, “Changing Political Faces on Kenya’s Coast, 1992–2007”; Willis and Chome, “Marginalization and Political Participation on the Kenya Coast.”
