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ABSTRACT
This article offers an analysis of the causes and consequences of the Ethio-Eritrean rapprochement. The causes are both internal (each side had their reasons) and external (under the influence of the UAE and Saudi Arabia). As for the consequences, the peace served as a catalyst of Eritrea’s reintegration: it boosted bilateral visits, had a limited regional snowball effect, lifted the UNSC sanctions, and accelerated the engagement of multilateral organizations and the EU in Eritrea. However, this reintegration is limited because of the persistent ambivalence of the regime, the degradation of the relations with Saudi Arabia and the US, and the fact that the peace with Ethiopia has stalled. Moreover, there is no peace dividend for the Eritrean population: after a glimpse of freedom when the border opened a couple of months, it is all back to the status quo ante, and even worse in some human rights respects. The conclusion shows the paradoxical nature of a rapprochement that also had negative effects and draws some lessons from the deeper problem explaining the stalled peace, that is institutional imbalance between a totalitarian state and a democratic one.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1 Bereketeab, “The Complex Roots of the Second Eritrea – Ethiopia War”; Reid, Shallow Grave.
2 State of Eritrea, Eritrea: Initial National Report (1999–2016) prepared on the African Charter on Human and People’s Rights (ACHPR). achpr.org, 28 March 2017, para. 268.
3 Himbara, D. “Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Inaugural Address Is Africa’s Speech of The Century,” Medium.com, 13 November 2018.
4 Gladstone, R. “Ethiopia to ‘Fully Accept’ Eritrea Peace Deal From 2000,” The New York Times, 5 June 2018.
5 Notable exceptions are Clapham, “The Foreign Policies of Ethiopia and Eritrea”; Reid (ed.), Eritrea’s External Relations; Nur, “Foreign Policy of Eritrea”; Woldemariam, “The Making of an African ‘Pariah’.”
6 Tronvoll and Mekonnen, The African Garrison State.
7 Tronvoll, The Lasting Struggle for Freedom in Eritrea; Ogbazghi, “Personal Rule in Africa”; Hirt, “The Eritrean Diaspora,” 118. The specific nature of the Eritrean totalitarianism is not detailed here as it will be the object of a distinct article.
8 UN Doc. A/HRC/32/47 (9 May 2016), para. 112.
9 Tecle and Luin, “From ‘Remittance’ to ‘Tax’.”
10 De Waal, The Real Politics of the Horn of Africa, 153.
11 Nur, “Foreign Policy of Eritrea,” 87.
12 Connell, Historical Dictionary of Eritrea, 254.
13 Johar, S. “In Labor,” awate.com, 6 February 2020.
14 Venkataramen, “Eritrea’s Relations with the Sudan since 1991”; Kibreab, “Eritrean-Sudanese relations in historical perspective.”
15 Stansfield, “The 1995–96 Yemen-Eritrea Conflict.”
16 Mesfin, “The Eritrea-Djibouti Border Dispute”; Frank, “Ripeness and the 2008 Djibouti-Eritrea Border Dispute.”
17 Venkataraman, “Eritrea’s Relations with the Sudan since 1991,” 73.
18 Bereketeab, “The Morality of the U.N. Security Council Sanctions against Eritrea.”
19 Yemane Ghebremeskel’s interview on Shaebia (the PFDJ’s website), 9 July 2007 (reproduced in an American diplomatic telegram, Wikileaks, 07ASMARA620_a, 16 July 2007). See also Isaias’ interview in The Los Angeles Times (2 October 2007).
20 Lyammouri, The Outbreak of Peace, 2.
21 Eritrea (three weeks in Spring 2012, in Asmara, Keren, Massawa, Mendefera, Dekemhare, Segeneiti, Senafe, Gelalo, the Buri Peninsula, the Dahlak islands, Foro, Nefasit, Ghinda, Dogali, Filfil and rural areas), Ethiopia (December 2010 – January 2011; January 2019), Djibouti (December 2013 – January 2014; January 2016), Kenya (January 2019), Uganda (January 2019).
22 Tronvoll, “Brothers at peace,” 66.
23 Ibid., 67–8.
24 Fick, F. and A. Cornwell. “In Peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea, UAE lends a Helping Hand,” Reuters, 8 August 2018.
25 Gardner, “The Rehabilitation of Africa’s Most Isolated Dictatorship.”
26 Lawson, “Egypt versus Ethiopia.”
27 RFI, “Barrage de la Renaissance: Abiy Ahmed en visite officielle en Erythrée,” 19 July 2020.
28 I am grateful to one of the journal’s anonymous reviewers for making this point.
29 Mosley, Ethiopia’s Transition, 16.
30 Ylönen, “Is the Horn of Africa’s ‘Cold War’ over?,” 3; Bruton, “Ethiopia and Eritrea Have a Common Enemy.”
31 Maasho A. “On Ethiopia-Eritrea frontline, anger at Addis' olive branch,” Reuters, 11 June 2018.
32 UN Doc. A/HRC/44/23 (11 May 2020), para. 35.
33 Plaut, “The Birth of the Eritrean Reform Movement.”
34 UN Doc. S/2011/433 (18 July 2011), para. 421–4 and S/2012/545 (13 July 2012), para. 86; Plaut, “Eritrea: A Mafia State?” 4.
35 Reid, “Conflict between Tigray and Eritrea.”
36 Informant 3, Addis Ababa, 23 January 2019.
37 Hirt, Der unvollkommene Frieden.
38 Maru, Beyond Borders and Leaders, 10.
39 Mosley, “Eritrea-Ethiopia Rapprochement,” 7.
40 Woldemariam, “The Making of an African ‘Pariah’,” 333.
41 Ibid., 328.
42 Lefebvre, “Iran in the Horn of Africa,” 127.
43 UN Doc. A/HRC/42/CRP.1 (3 September 2019), para. 244–6.
44 UN Doc. S/2015/802 (19 October 2015), para. 32.
45 Plaut, M. “How Eritrea’s President Isaias Refused to take a Call from Ethiopian PM Abiy,” martinplaut.wordpress.com, 30 May 2018.
46 Fikade, B. “US Says Committed to Resolving Ethio-Eritrean Standoffs,” The Reporter, 18 November 2017.
47 Hirt, Der unvollkommene Frieden.
48 Cheng, “Will Djibouti become Latest Country to Fall Into China’s Debt Trap?”.
49 Plaut, M. “The Glow of the Historic Accord between Ethiopia and Eritrea has Faded,” Quartz Africa, 9 July 2019.
50 Africa intelligence, “Asmara to Train Somalian Recruits,” 23 August 2019.
51 Mutambo, A. “Once a Pariah, Eritrean President Comes up with Regional Bloc Idea,” The East African, 3 February 2020.
52 Henneberg and Stapel, “Cooperation and Conflict at the Horn of Africa.”
53 State of Eritrea. “Turkish-Qatari-Sudanese Subversive Regional Agenda,” tesfanews.net, 3 April 2019.
54 Atta-Asamoah and Mahmood, Sudan after Bashir, 9.
55 See Hirt, “Commentary: UN Security Council Resolution 2444.”
56 According to a high-level official of the US National Security Council in November 2018 (diplomatic source).
57 Statement of former EU Commissioner for International Cooperation and Development Neven Mimica, https://twitter.com/mimicaeu/status/1093876797710704647
58 De Groote, “The EU and its ‘No More Roads Approach’ in Eritrea.”
59 State of Eritrea. “AU Stance May Exacerbate the Situation in the Sudan,” shabait.com, 5 June 2019.
60 Weldemichael, “Ethio-Eritrea Peace Deal,” 7.
61 Osman, F. “A Tale of Two Red Sea Banks,” erena.org, 25 February 2020.
62 State of Eritrea. “Interview with President Isaias Afwerki,” shabait.com, 21 February 2020.
63 State of Eritrea. “Eritrea Express Unhappiness Over Saudi Minister’s ‘Islamic Role’ Remark,” tesfanews.net, 14 January 2020.
64 Africa intelligence, “MbZ keeps Issayas Afeworki Flying High,” 15 October 2020.
65 State of Eritrea. “From Recent Confidential Archives,” shabait.com, 1 November 2019.
66 Informant 1, Addis Ababa, 23 January 2019.
67 Tesfaye and Gebrehiwot, “A Party at the Border.”
68 Aljazeera.com, “Ethiopia or Eritrea? Border Community Fears Split,” 20 July 2018.
69 Mohamed, H. “Ethiopia PM Abiy Ahmed Ready to Open New Chapter in Eritrea Ties,” Al Jazeera, 27 June 2018.
70 Kjetil Tronvoll, interviewed by BBC Tigrinya Service, transcribed on asmarino.com, “Eritrea: Diverse International Views on the Nobel Peace Prize Awarded to PM Abiy Ahmed,” 20 October 2019.
71 Yewondwossen, M. “Djibouti to Host Ethiopia’s Navy,” capitalethiopia.com, 2 December 2019.
72 Verhoeven, “Amid Red Sea Rivalries.”
73 Tronvoll, “Brothers at Peace,” 73.
74 Müller, The Ethiopian-Eritrean Rapprochement After Year One, 11.
75 York, G. “In secretive Eritrea, Historic Reforms across the Border have Sparked Hopes for the Future,” The Globe and Mail, 25 December 2018.
76 Müller, The Ethiopian-Eritrean Rapprochement After Year One, 17.
77 Hirt, Der unvollkommene Frieden.
78 Mosley, Ethiopia’s Transition, 17.
79 European Commission. “Ethiopia: Influx of Eritrean Refugees,” 20 December 2018.
80 Lyammouri, The Outbreak of Peace, 4.
81 Ibid., 3.
82 I am grateful to one of the journal’s anonymous reviewers for making this point.
83 Frank, “Eritrea: Is Political Change Really on the Horizon?”.
84 Hirt, “Commentary: UN Security Council Resolution 2444,” 272.
85 Since 2003, high school students are forced to complete their 12th and final grade in the military camp of Sawa, where they face all kinds of abuse. That also marks the beginning of the indefinite conscription. See Bader, They Are Making Us into Slaves.
86 Hirt, “Stalled Peace and Blocked Reforms in Eritrea.”
87 Zere, A. “Eritreans have Peace, now they want Freedom,” aljazeera.com, 24 May 2019.
88 Frank, “Eritrea: Is Political Change Really on the Horizon?”.
89 State of Eritrea. “AU Stance May Exacerbate the Situation in the Sudan,” shabait.com, 5 June 2019.
90 Frank, “Eritrea: Is Political Change Really on the Horizon?”.
91 Lyammouri, The Outbreak of Peace, 4.
92 Ghebrehiwet, Y. “Deciphering the Peace Accord between Eritrea and Ethiopia,” asmarino.com, 13 August 2019.
93 Woldemikael, “The Promise and Pitfalls of the new peace for Eritrea,” 16.
94 eritreahub.org, “The Truth Behind the Hitsats Camp Crisis,” 14 April 2020.
95 UN Doc. A/HRC/44/23 (11 May 2020); AI, Human Rights in Africa, 38; HRW, Statement.
96 Osman, F. “A New Round of Forced Donations,” erena.org, 8 April 2020.
97 UN Doc. A/HRC/44/23 (11 May 2020), para. 43.
98 UNHCR. “UNHCR Appeals to Eritrea Over Refugee Camp Closure,” unhcr.org, 3 July 2019.
99 eritreahub.org, “The Truth Behind the Hitsats Camp Crisis,” 14 April 2020.
100 UNHCR, Eritrean refugees in Ethiopia: Tigray & Afar regions, situational update (as of 30 April 2020), unhcr.org, 26 May 2020.
101 Hagos, H. “Ethiopia Adopts New Criteria Excluding Eritrean Refugees,” eritreahub.org, 28 March 2020.
102 UN Doc. A/HRC/44/23 (11 May 2020), para. 71.
103 “Swiss Federal Administrative Court rules on returns of Eritreans in case of conscription to national service upon return,” asylumlawdatabase.eu, 10 July 2018.
104 Yaron, L. “Eritreans Should Be Deported Back to Their Country, Israeli Appellate Tribunal Says,” Haaretz, 15 August 2018.
105 RFI, “France: une femme expulsée en Érythrée, un des pays les plus répressifs au monde,” 12 June 2019.
106 UN Doc. A/HRC/44/23 (11 May 2020), para. 82.
107 Hirt, “Stalled Peace and Blocked Reforms in Eritrea.”
108 Bereketeab, The Ethiopia-Eritrea Rapprochement, 15.
109 Selam Tadesse Demissie, “Tensions in Both Countries Relating to Ethiopia’s Tigray Regional State are Hampering Progress,” ISS Africa, 11 September 2020.
110 Vincent L. “Ethiopie: l’implication des Erythréens dans le conflit au Tigré se confirme,” RFI, 10 December 2020.
111 Hirt, “Commentary: UN Security Council Resolution 2444,” 272.
112 Hirt, “Stalled Peace and blocked reforms in Eritrea.”
113 Hirt, Der unvollkommene Frieden.
114 Kidane, S., “Rethinking the Ethio-Eritrean Peace Deal,” eritreadigest.com, 31 December 2019.