https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7213-4337
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ABSTRACT
This article uses a longitudinal comparative perspective to analyse Zambia's 2021 transfer of power. The article takes the previous elections since the transition to multi-party democracy in 1991 as a body in which patterns of incumbency failure can be seen. It identifies five pervasive patterns that seem present in all polls that have resulted in leadership change or turnovers: a struggling economy with a clear blame orientation, a unified opposition, a depoliticised military, a rather impartial electoral commission, and collective memory of incumbent defeat. The importance of each of these factors varies over time, but collectively they shape election outcomes in decisive ways. Drawing on interviews and newspaper sources, I apply these variables to the 2021 election that resulted in the defeat of President Edgar Lungu and the victory of the opposition candidate. I argue that the repeated failure of incumbency advantage in Zambia reflects the institutionalisation of democratic processes, notably embodied in competitive elections, an increasingly independent electoral commission, effective opposition parties that can devise robust campaign strategies, and a military that continues to choose non- intervention whenever an incumbent is defeated. More broadly, I demonstrate why alternation is becoming routine while the power of incumbency is in decline.
Acknowledgements
I am grateful to the two anonymous JEAS reviewers, whose constructive feedback helped to improve the final version of this article.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1 Nicole Beardsworth, Nic Cheeseman, and O’Brien Kaaba, “Five things to watch in the Zambian election”, Mail & Guardian, 26 July 2021.
2 Hinfelaar et al., “Legal autocratisation.”
3 McDermott, “Zambia’s election is crucial, but it’s not a fair fight”, The Economist, 7 August 2021.
4 Sishuwa Sishuwa, “In a fair election, Lungu can’t win. In an unfair one, he can’t lose”, African Arguments, 8 August 2021.
5 Electoral Commission of Zambia, “Past Election Results.” http://www.elections.org.zm/past_election_results.php (accessed on 11 November 2021).
6 See, for instance, Bleck and van de Walle, Electoral Politics in Africa since 1990; and Cheeseman, “African Elections as Vehicles for Change”.
7 Cheeseman, Willis, and Lynch. “Ghana: The Ebbing Power of Incumbency.”
8 See Beardsworth, Siachiwena and Sishuwa, “Autocratisation, electoral politics.”
9 A good example of work that emphasises economic voting is Dulani and Chunga, “When Incumbency is No Longer an Advantage”.
10 S. Sishuwa and N. Cheeseman, “Three lessons for Africa from Zambia’s landslide opposition victory”, African Arguments, 22 August 2021.
11 See Phiri, “Civil Control of the Zambian Military”; and Maringira, Soldiers and the State in Zimbabwe.
12 See Sishuwa, “Surviving on borrowed power”, 484–487.
13 See for instance, Bratton, “Zambia Starts Over”; and Baylies and Szeftel, “Democratisation and the 1991 Elections in Zambia”.
14 Tip, Gadin and Moloi, “Zambia,” 573.
15 Nikuv of Israel conducted the registration of voters ahead of the election, attracting criticism from opposition parties and civil society groups who alleged it was not a credible organisation.
16 Rakner, Political and Economic Liberalisation in Zambia, 195.
17 Sishuwa, “I am Zambia’s Redeemer,” 131.
18 See for instance Bratton and Posner, “A First Look at Second Elections in Africa”; Baylies and Szeftel, “The 1996 Zambian election”; and Gould, “Contesting Democracy”.
19 Bratton and Posner, “A First Look at Second Elections in Africa”, 402.
20 See, for instance, Sishuwa, “Surviving on Borrowed Power”; and Burnell, “Zambia’s 2001” Elections.
21 See, for instance, Larmer and Fraser, “Of Cabbages and King Cobra”.
22 Larmer, Rethinking African Politics, 260.
23 Sishuwa, “I am Zambia’s Redeemer,” 201.
24 Sishuwa “Multi-ethnic Vision or Ethnic Nationalism?”
25 Cheeseman and Hinfelaar, “Parties, Platforms and Political Mobilization”.
26 Uzar, “Contested Labour and Political Leadership”; and Bwalya and Maharaj, “Not to the Highest Bidder”.
27 Sishuwa, “I am Zambia’s Redeemer,” 201.
28 Ibid.
29 Sishuwa, “Join Me to Get Rid of This President”.
30 Sishuwa, “I am Zambia’s Redeemer,” 201.
31 The best example of this literature is Goldring and Wahman, “Democracy in Reverse”.
32 Ibid, p.107.
33 Interview, Neo Simutanyi, prominent Zambian political scientist, Lusaka, 15 April 2022.
34 Beardsworth, “From a ‘Regional Party’ to the Gates of State House,” 40.
35 Sishuwa, “Multi-ethnic Vision or Ethnic Nationalism?”.
36 Siachiwena, “The 2011-2016 Elections.”
37 Goldring and Wahman, “Democracy in Reverse”.
38 Sishuwa and Cheeseman, “Three lessons for Africa”.
39 Ibid.
40 Ibid.
41 UPND Facebook page, “HH promises jobs for youth once in power”, 24 August 2019. (Accessed on 11 July 2022).
42 Mukosha Funga, “HH to reinstate, increase student bursaries”, News Diggers, 29 August 2019, 4.
43 Radio Phoenix News, “HH promises better pay for civil servants”, 12 June 2021.
44 Ernest Chanda, “I will not remove street venders from trading places – HH”, The Mast, 12 May 2018, 3.
45 Ulande Nkomesha, “We will double social cash transfers amount, promises HH”, News Diggers, 6 August 2021; “HH promises to lower the price of fertiliser from K800 to K250 when elected”, Lusaka Times, 29 July 2021.
46 See “Press Statement on the 2021 Zambian general Elections By His Excellency Mr Rupiah Bwezani Banda, Fourth Republican President of Zambia, Issued on Monday 9th August 2021”.
47 Electoral Commission of Zambia, “Past Election Results”.
48 Ibid.
49 See Afrobarometer Round 8 Survey in Zambia, 2020, 26 and Afrobarometer Round 2 Survey in Zambia, 2003, 31.
50 Phiri, “Civil Control of the Zambian Military”.
51 Interview, former military commander, Lusaka, 12 June 2022; Interview, former Zambia Air Force commander, Lusaka, 3 April 2022.
52 See for example, Cheeseman, Democracy in Africa, 5.
53 Sishuwa Sishuwa, “In Zambia, Covid-19 has claimed democracy, not human life”, Mail & Guardian, 15 June 2020.
54 Ulande Nkomesha, “Police teargas, attempt to block HH from entering Nakonde”, News Diggers, 4 August 2021, 1.
55 Interview, Senior Military Official, Lusaka, 24 January 2022.
56 Interview, Retired Director in the Zambia Security and Intelligence Services, Lusaka, 10 October 2021.
57 Interview, Retired Military Commander, Lusaka, 11 October 2021.
58 Interview, Lieutenant Colonel in the Zambia Army, Lusaka, 12 October 2021.
59 Interview, Captain Class in Zambia Army, Lusaka, 12 October 2021.
60 Interview, Gen. William Sikazwe, Lusaka, 11 October 2021.
61 Interview, Edgar Lungu, Lusaka, 3 April 2023.
62 Interview, Davies Chama, Lusaka, 3 February 2022.
63 Ibid.
64 A good example of this literature is Clark, “The Decline of the African Military Coup”.
65 Telephone interview, Ernest Bai Koroma, 14 October 2021.
66 Interview, Rupiah Banda, Lusaka, 19 October 2021.
67 Telephone Interview, Jakaya Kikwete, 23 October 2021.
68 Sishuwa, “Surviving on Borrowed Power”
69 Interview, Edgar Lungu, Lusaka, 3 April 2023.
70 Examples of this literature include Pottie, “Electoral Management and Democratic Governance in Southern Africa”; Elklit, “The Structure and Performance of African Electoral Commissions”; and O Kaaba, and Haang’andu, “The Electoral Commission and the Conduct of Democratic Elections in Zambia”. For a collection of studies on electoral commissions in the southern African region, see OSISA, Electoral Management Bodies in Southern Africa.
71 I am grateful to Nicolas van de Walle for this point. Email Correspondence, 18 February 2022.
72 Kaaba and Haang’andu, “The Electoral Commission”, 190.
73 Ibid.
74 The literature on political settlements has long recognised elite consensus as essential to the preservation of power and democracy. See, for instance, Behuria, Buur and Gray, “Studying Political Settlements in Africa”.
75 Email correspondence with Nicolas van de Walle, 18 February 2022
76 Kaaba and Haang’andu, “The Electoral Commission”, 175.
77 Interview, Eric Kamwi, former ECZ legal officer, Lusaka, 12 March 2022.
78 See Neo Simutanyi, “Zambia’s 2021 Election: Unfree, unfair, unpredictable”, African Arguments, 9 August 2021; and See Kaaba, and Haang’andu, “The Electoral Commission and the Conduct of Democratic Elections in Zambia”, 176.
79 Beardsworth, Cheeseman, and Kaaba, “Five things”; 1; Sishuwa Sishuwa, “This is how Lungu is planning to rig Zambia’s 2021 general election”, Mail & Guardian, 25 September 2020, 16.
80 Sipilisiwe Ncube, “2021 poll will Be a tight race – ECZ”, News Diggers, 25 February 2020, p.1.
81 Interview, Simutanyi.
82 Chamuka Shalubala, “Elections were not free and fair, laments Lungu”, News Diggers, 14 August 2021, p.1.
83 Interview, ECZ commissioner, Lusaka, 3 February 2022.
84 Ibid.
85 Sishuwa and Cheeseman, “Three lessons for Africa”
86 Interview, Fackson Shamenda, Former Union Leader and ex Minister of Labour, Lusaka, 8 October 2021.
87 Interview, Mining supplier, Luanshya, 12 September 2021.
88 Interview, Copperbelt resident, Kitwe, 12 September 2021.
89 Sishuwa and Cheeseman, “Three lessons for Africa”
90 Ibid.
91 Ibid.
92 Ibid.
93 See Siachiwena, “A Silent Revolution” and Resnick “How Zambia’s Opposition Won”.
94 See also Siachawena’s contribution to this special issue, “The urban vote.”
95 Sishuwa, “Patronage Politics and Parliamentary Elections”.
96 Telephone interview, Miles Larmer, 12 November 2021.
97 Telephone interview, Nic Cheeseman, 7 October 2021.
98 Ibid.
99 Sishuwa, “This is how Lungu is planning to rig Zambia’s 2021 general election”.
100 Sishuwa Sishuwa, “Class of 2021: Zambians who inspired last year”, News Diggers, 6 January 2022, 7.
101 I am grateful to Dylan Bwalya Kasonde, the ECZ Director for ICT, for providing this figure.
102 Interview, John Sangwa, Lusaka, 18 September 2021.
103 Diggers Correspondent, “Petition against Lungu a watershed moment for Zambia – Sishuwa”, News Diggers, 3 June 2021.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Sishuwa Sishuwa
Sishuwa Sishuwa is a senior lecturer in history at Stellenbosch University and an honorary research affiliate in the Institute for Democracy, Citizenship and Public Policy in Africa (IDCPPA) at the University of Cape Town. Previously, Sishuwa was a lecturer in history at the University of Zambia. He works on southern Africa's political history during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries and his research emphasises a historical approach to understanding contemporary issues. Sishuwa has published a series of articles on democracy, elections, ethnicity, civil society, populism, charismatic leadership, and “racialised nationalism and the rule of law” – for which he won the prestigious Terence Ranger prize from the Journal of Southern African Studies. He serves on the editorial board of the Journal of African History and regularly contributes to the print and broadcast media on African politics. Sishuwa obtained his doctorate in modern history from the University of Oxford, where he studied as a Rhodes Scholar. Research for this article was carried out when he was a post- doctoral research fellow at the IDCPPA.