Transition, transformation, and the politics of the future in Uganda

ABSTRACT

While the framing of the past remains a critical terrain of political discourse in Uganda, competing political visions oriented towards the future have emerged as equally salient as the country undergoes significant social and economic changes. Against the image of gridlock that characterises Ugandan politics after President Yoweri Museveni’s latest controversial re-election in 2021, the aim of this article is to highlight these currents of change and the political narratives of the future that have emerged to address them. We address these changes in three categories: the ways in which the NRM regime has re-embraced a securitised developmentalism, the demographic and economic changes that in some ways condition and force these shifts, and the changes to presidential politics relating to Museveni’s succession on both the NRM and opposition sides.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 John Masaba, “Museveni to Grace CEOs’ Retreat at Kyankwanzi.” The New Vision, Kampala, 4 December 2021. https://www.newvision.co.ug/articledetails/121510.

2 Kagoro, “The Military Ethos in the Politics.”

3 National Resistance Movement, Manifesto 2016–21, 17 (emphases ours).

4 Derrick Wandera, “New Opposition Pressure Group Names Besigye Chairman, Lukwago Deputy.” The Monitor, 8 October 2021. https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/national/new-opposition-pressure-group-names-besigye-chairman-lukwago-deputy-3575710.

5 Interview with NTV’s Patrick Kamara, 8 October 2021. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRMaPleAd9A&t=1811s.

6 National Unity Platform, 2021–2026 Manifesto, 2.

7 For a more nuanced perspective on this, see Macdonald, Owor, and Tapscott, “Youth Politics in Uganda.”

8 Vokes and Wilkins, “Party, Patronage and Coercion.”

9 Vokes has completed 40 months of ethnographic fieldwork in Uganda, over 13 periods since 2000. Wilkins has completed eight months ethnographic fieldwork over three periods since 2011.

10 Vokes and Wilkins, “Party, Patronage and Coercion,” 583.

11 Ibid.

12 See especially journalist William Pike’s account of NRM ideology during, and immediately after, the Bush War: Pike, Combatants. Although Pike’s book was published recently, large parts of it were written at the time of the events it describes.

13 Peterson, “A History of the Heritage Economy,” 791–2.

14 Hansen and Twaddle, Developing Uganda, 7 and 13–14.

15 Lindemann, “Just Another Change of Guard?”

16 Lyons, “AIDS and Development in Uganda,” 194.

17 This was the period during which recorded HIV/AIDS prevalence rates were experiencing their steepest declines, at almost all of Uganda’s sentinel surveillance sites. See Allen, “Aids and Evidence,” 10.

18 The one exception was 2011, when growth reached 9.4%, driven largely by Uganda’s anticipated new oil revenues. See Vokes, “Briefing: The Politics of Oil.”

19 Wilkins, “Re-Electing the Local (Party) State.”

20 Ibid. See also Titeca, “The Commercialisation of Uganda’s 2011 Election.”

21 Lie, Developmentality.

22 Vokes, “Signs of Development.”

23 Bukenya, Mukwaya, and Oyana, “Politics and Covid-19 in Kampala.”

24 Vokes and Atukunda, “Fieldwork Through the Zoomiverse.”

25 Atuhura, “The Metaphor of War in Political Discourse,” 2.

26 Ibid., 1.

27 We thank Gertrude Atukunda for sharing her observations of these broadcasts with us.

28 See “Museveni Hails People Power for Contribution to Covid-19 Fight.” New Vision, 9 April 2020. https://www.newvision.co.ug/new_vision/news/1517731/museveni-hails-people-power-contribution-covid-19-fight.

29 Ronald Musoke, “Why Museveni Is Targeting Mailo.” The Independent, 16 August 2021. https://www.independent.co.ug/why-museveni-is-targeting-mailo/.

30 The Observer, “Museveni: Yes I’m Behind Pinetti Coffee Deal, Come Beat Me.” 10 October 2022. https://observer.ug/news/headlines/75456-museveni-yes-i-m-behind-pinetti-coffee-deal-come-beat-me.

31 Vokes, “Briefing: The Politics of Oil”; and Frederick Musisi, “Historic Day as Uganda Starts First Oil Drilling.” The Daily Monitor, 24 January 2023. https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/national/historic-day-as-uganda-starts-first-oil-drilling-4096912.

32 Hansen and Twaddle, Developing Uganda, 3–10.

33 Vokes, “The Chairman’s Photographs.”

34 Wiegratz, Martiniello, and Greco, Uganda.

35 The Observer, “Concern as Uganda’s Public Debt Enters Danger Zone, 90 Years Needed to Clear.” 28 December 2022. https://observer.ug/news/headlines/76344-concern-as-uganda-s-public-debt-enters-danger-zone-country-needs-90-years-to-clear.

36 Nelson Naturinda, “China-Uganda Loan Deal for Entebbe Airport is Binding: MPs.” The East African, 7 March 2022. https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/chinese-entebbe-loan-deal-is-binding-3739346.

37 Khisa, “Uganda's Ruling Coalition and the 2021 Elections.”

38 Tumwesigye et al., “Spatial Patterns of Urbanisation in Sub-Saharan Africa,” 4.

39 This is from a range of official estimates collected by Bidandi and Williams, “The Challenges Facing Urbanisation Processes,” 3.

40 Tumwesigye et al., “Spatial Patterns of Urbanisation in Sub-Saharan Africa,” 4–6.

41 Vokes, “Before the Call”; and Bertrand, Natabaalo, and Hitchen, “Connecting with Constituents?”

42 Stephen Kafeero, “To Control Speech, Uganda Is Taxing Internet Usage by 30%.” Quartz, 3 July 2021. Accessed 10 January 2022. https://qz.com/africa/2028653/uganda-replaces-ott-social-media-tax-with-tax-on-internet-bundles/.

43 Ibid.

44 The Independent, “List of Videos that the EC Is to Investigate.” 21 January 2021. https://www.independent.co.ug/videos-list-of-fake-videos-that-the-ec-is-to-investigate/.

45 Lwanga-Ntale, “Inequality in Uganda,” 606.

46 Ibid., 602.

47 Alava and Ssentongo, “Citizenship Moods in the Late Museveni Era.”

48 UN-DESA/PD, The World’s Cities in 2018-Data Booklet.

49 Mampilly, “The Promise of Africa’s ‘Youth Bulge’.”

50 Reuss and Titeca, “When Revolutionaries Grow Old.”

51 McDoanld, Owor, and Tapscott, “Youth Politics in Uganda.”

52 Ofwono Opondo, “Elections will be Fair, Credible, Peaceful, and Uganda Secure.” Press Release from the Ugandan Media Centre, 9 January 2021. https://www.mediacentre.go.ug/Opinion/elections-will-be-fair-credible-peaceful-and-uganda-secure.

53 See Mubatsi Asinja Habati, “NEC Exposes Museveni’s Challenges.” The Independent, 20 January 2010. https://www.independent.co.ug/nec-exposes-musevenis-challenges/; and “Why Mbabazi Might Stay in the Queue a Little Longer.” The Daily Monitor, 29 January 2013. https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/national/why-mbabazi-might-stay-in-the-queue-a-little-longer-1554294.

54 Ashaba and Bareebe, “Uganda: A Police Chief.”

55 Tweet from @mkainerugaba, 23 March 2022. https://twitter.com/mkainerugaba/status/1506529963721252868.

56 Tweet from @mkainerugaba, 28 March 2022. https://twitter.com/mkainerugaba/status/1501146903249141763.

57 “I’m Tired of Waiting, I’ll Stand for Presidency in 2026 – Muhoozi.” The Daily Monitor, 16 March 2023. https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/national/i-m-tired-of-waiting-i-ll-stand-for-presidency-in-2026-muhoozi-4160712.

58 Baker Batte Lule, “Rwabwobo Attack Rekindles Museveni Succession Debate.” The Observer, Kampala, 3 March 2017. https://observer.ug/news/headlines/51572-rwabwogo-attack-rekindles-museveni-succession-debate.

59 For a summary of our interpretation of this, see Wilkins, Vokes, and Khisa, “Briefing: Contextualizing the Bobi Wine Factor.”

60 Khisa, “Uganda's Ruling Coalition and the 2021 Elections.”