Spatiotemporal effects of Hurricane Ivan on an endemic epiphytic orchid: 10 years of follow-up

ABSTRACT

Background: Hurricanes have a strong influence on the ecological dynamics and structure of tropical forests. Orchid populations are especially vulnerable to these perturbations due to their canopy exposure and lack of underground storage organs and seed banks.

Aims: We evaluated the effects of Hurricane Ivan on the population of the endemic epiphytic orchid Encyclia bocourtii to propose a management strategy.

Methods: Using a pre- and post-hurricane dataset (2003–2013), we assessed the population asymptotic and transient dynamics. We also identified the individual size-stages that maximise population inertia and E. bocourtii’s spatial arrangement relative to phorophytes and other epiphytes.

Results: Hurricane Ivan severely affected the survival and growth of individuals of E. bocourtii, and caused an immediate decline of the population growth rate from λ = 1.05 to λ = 0.32, which was buffered by a population reactivity of ρ₁ = 1.42. Our stochastic model predicted an annual population decrease of 14%. We found an aggregated spatial pattern between E. bocourtii and its host trees, and a random pattern relative to other epiphytes.

Conclusion: Our findings suggest that E. bocourtii is not safe from local extinction. We propose the propagation and reintroduction of reproductive specimens, the relocation of surviving individuals, and the establishment of new plantations of phorophytes.

KEYWORDS:

• Caribbean
• cyclones
• integral projection models
• management strategies
• plant population dynamics
• stochastic growth rate
• transient behaviour
• transfer functions

Acknowledgements

We sincerely thank the Journal Editor, Laszlo Nagy, and the anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments on previous versions of the manuscript.

Authors’ contributions

J.R., E.M., and E.G. conceived and designed study, coordinated its design and gathered data in the field; I.A.O-R. and J.R. analysed data and wrote the paper; E.V.P., P.O.L., A.B., and C.M. gave feedback on the writing of the paper.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed here

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Inter-ministerial Commission for Science and Technology under Grant [CICYT-Spain, Project CGL2015-69985-R]; and the Havana Project of the University of Alicante.

Notes on contributors

Iván A. Ortiz-Rodríguez

Iván A. Ortiz-Rodríguez is an environmental scientist interested in the population and community dynamics of tropical plants for their conservation and sustainable use. He is also interested in the use of Big Data for planning conservation and management strategies in protected areas.

Jose Raventós

Jose Raventós has a particular interest in the composition, function and restoration of ecosystems, and plant population ecology.

Ernesto Mújica

Ernesto Mújica is interested in ecology, demography and orchid taxonomy.

Elaine González-Hernández

Elaine González-Hernández has a particular interest in the impacts of hurricanes on orchids and in the study of invasive plants.

Ernesto Vega-Peña

Ernesto Vega-Peña is a plant ecologist with experience in arid and tropical areas. He is interested in developing numerical simulation models related to the links between ecological and social processes.

Pilar Ortega-Larrocea

Pilar Ortega-Larrocea is a geobiologist interested in soil rehabilitation using microorganisms.

Andreu Bonet

Andreu Bonet focuses on Landscape Ecology and Conservation Biology. His main research is on land use change and disturbance effects on ecosystems, with an emphasis on spatio-temporal analysis of vegetation dynamics.

Cory Merow

Cory Merow is a quantitative ecologist interested in building mechanistic models to forecast population and community responses to environmental change.