Adaptive management of jurisdictional REDD + programs: a methodology illustrated for Ecuador

Abstract

Jurisdictional REDD+ (JR) is based on the premise that results-based flows of finance can drive changes in complex land-use systems across entire nations or subnational jurisdictions to achieve large-scale reductions in carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. The early JR experiments demonstrate that the promise of payments is, alone, insufficient to drive a jurisdictional land-use system transition. Effective JR strategies are needed that translate finance – or the prospect of finance – into forest-friendly changes in the land-use system that are embedded in public policies and programs aligned to achieve that end. Adaptive management has yet to be incorporated into JR programs and could potentially improve the performance of JR. To address this gap, we present a methodology for adaptively managing JR programs that features (a) a “living” mechanistic model of the jurisdictional land-use system, (b) an operational theory of change that describes how the JR strategy will intervene in this system to lower emissions, (c) an annual or biennial assessment process that revisits the theory of change through an independent group of experts and quantitative analysis of spatially-explicit components of the strategy, and (d) a decision-making body for adaptively refining the strategy based on the assessment. The methodology is illustrated for Ecuador’s national JR program, the “REDD + Action Plan” (AP), that has secured commitments of results-based payments and international cooperation funds totaling ∼ US $120 million.

Keywords:

• Environmental impact evaluation
• adaptive management
• REDD+
• deforestation
• rural development

Acknowledgements

This study was developed in cooperation with ProAmazonia, a program of the Ministry of Environment and the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock of Ecuador funded by the The Green Climate Fund (GCF) and the Global Environment Facility (GEF) implemented with the support of UNDP. The authors acknowledge the special collaboration of the staff of ProAmazonia, Socio Bosque, the Amazon Productive Transformation Agenda (ATPA) and Water Funds in Ecuador who invited this study and facilitated its execution at every step. The Government of Norway’s International Development Agency through its grant to the Earth Innovation Institute entitled “Building Bridges between Local Policies, REDD + and Sustainable Supply Chain Initiatives: Phase 3 of the Forest, Farms and Finance Initiative” also supported this work. In particular we acknowledge the collaboration of Fernanda González (UNDP); Patricia Serrano and Francisco Moscoso (ProAmazonia); Raúl Galeas (FONAG); José Riofrio (MAG); Jeanneth Alvear, Ximena Herrera, Lenin Beltrán, Danilo Granja and Cristina Garcia (MAE).

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Correction Statement

This article has been republished with minor changes. These changes do not impact the academic content of the article.