Potential leverage points for development of the cellulosic ethanol industry supply chain

Abstract

The potential long-term impacts and systemic effects of incentives are of great interest to the biofuels industry and decision makers, particularly with regards to forthcoming mandates for biofuels. We have used the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) to build a theoretical understanding of the role of incentives on the evolution of the biomass-to-biofuels market. It models a broad range of biofuels such as renewable gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel. In this paper, we focus on cellulosic ethanol as we describe model-based insights into potential incentives that are aimed at stimulating industry growth while tempering overall incentive-related government expenditures. Subsequent research can test the key insights gained through BSM simulations against actual policy implementation and actual outcomes.

Keywords:

• ethanol
• supply chain
• Biomass Scenario Model
• system dynamics
• cellulosic
• incentives

Disclosure statement

The authors declare no competing financial interest.

Acknowledgment

The authors would like to acknowledge the Biomass Scenario Model developers and analysts. Robert Wallace (Booz Allen Hamilton) and John Sheehan (The University of Minnesota) were instrumental in initial model development. Zia Haq, Kristen Johnson, and Alicia Lindauer of the US Department of Energy have supported analyses to shed light on the biofuels system. Dana Stright of Lexidyne LLC was responsible for creating many of the graphics in the report. In addition, the other BSM team members have provided helpful insights, discussions, and reviews: Mark Paich of Lexidyne LLC and Laura Vimmerstedt, Daniel Inman, David Hsu, Yolanda Lin, Ryan Elmore, Andrew Argo, and Amy Schwab of NREL.