Impact of uncertainty in indirect land-use changes and life-cycle carbon intensity for biofuels under climate legislation: a case study of British Columbia

ABSTRACT

British Columbia's (BC) Greenhouse Gas Reduction (GHGR) Targets Act (GHGRTA) contains ambitious goals of reducing province-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 80% in 2050 (relative to 2007). With ∼38% of BC's GHG emissions stemming from transportation (in 2012), it is clear that BC's climate goals can only be realized with an effective climate policy for transport fuel activities. Enacted in December 2009, the GHGR Renewable and Low Carbon Fuel Requirement (RLCFR) Act and Regulation have achieved significant life cycle GHG emissions reductions accredited to its enforcement: 904,900 t CO₂eq (2012). At face value, this is a great success. However, several accounting issues suggest that these GHG emissions reductions are inaccurate. In this study, the GHG emissions reductions achieved with the RLCFR are first analyzed by fuel source and transport mode. Next, the methodology for determining the life-cycle carbon intensity (CI) factors of each fuel are analyzed, with a particular focus on how indirect land use change (iLUC) is dealt with. The findings of this study suggest that the RLCFR legislation has not been nearly as effective as proclaimed by the BC government. Nevertheless, this transport fuel regulation is essential if BC wants to achieve its future GHG emissions reduction targets. Several recommendations are provided.

KEYWORDS:

• Renewable fuel
• climate policy
• LCA
• iLUC
• British Columbia

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1. This issue is equally apparent for natural gas derived from fracking because it has generally been found to be more GHG intense and this is due to significantly greater rates of methane leakage [38].

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada [grant number J000486].