Terrorist retaliation? An analysis of terrorist attacks following the targeted killing of top-tier al Qaeda leadership

Abstract

One controversial counterterrorism method employed by the United States is the targeted killing of terrorist leadership. Much has been written on this topic, but little of it is based on empirical research. Building on that existing empirical work, this study examined the attacks of al Qaeda and al Qaeda-related terrorist groups before and after the targeted killing of four of its top-tier leaders (Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, Abu Ayub al-Masri, Osama bin Laden, and Anwar al-Awlaki). Using data obtained from the Global Terrorism Database, the frequency, severity, type, and success of over 300 terrorist attacks were analysed with the primary goal of determining if there was any evidence of retaliation from these terrorist groups in the two months following the killing of one of their leaders. The results of the statistical analyses gave no indication of such retaliation. There were no significant changes in the type or target of attacks, no change in the frequency of attacks, and, in one regression model, evidence that the average number of fatalities per attack actually decreased following the targeted killings.

Keywords:

• al Qaeda
• retaliation
• targeted killing