Ensemble of Kernel Regression Models for Assessing the Health State of Choke Valves in Offshore Oil Platforms

Abstract

This paper considers the problem of erosion in choke valves used on offshore oil platforms. A parameter commonly used to assess the valve erosion state is the flow coefficient, which can be analytically calculated as a function of both measured and allocated parameters. Since the allocated parameter estimation is unreliable, the obtained evaluation of the valve erosion level becomes inaccurate and undermines the possibility of achieving good prognostic results. In this work, cluster analysis is used to verify the allocated parameter values and an ensemble of Kernel Regression models is used to correct the valve flow coefficient estimates.

Keywords:

• AHP
• Choke Valve Erosion
• Ensemble
• Kernel Regression
• Prognostics and Health Management