Development of Ocean Pollution Prediction System for Shimokita Region Model Development and Verification

Abstract

A three-dimensional model system has been developed to predict oceanic dispersions of radionuclides released into the off Shimokita region. This prediction system is a combination of the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) for predicting ocean currents and a particle random walk model for oceanic dispersion of radionuclides. The model has been verified by using measured currents, temperature and salinity at the coastal area of Shimokita, Aomori-ken, Japan, where a nuclear fuel reprocessing plant is under construction. The results obtained from simulations are as follows; (1) Sea surface wind and the Tsugaru Warm Current (TWC) entering into the objective region through the Tsugaru Strait significantly affect the structure of current field over the region. (2) POM can represent seasonal variations of the TWC well with the input of monthly inflow data of the TWC. The calculation succeeded in reproducing the coastal mode from winter to spring and the gyre mode from summer to autumn.

KEYWORDS:

• dispersion of radionuclides
• ocean current model
• particle random walk model
• nuclear fuel reprocessing plants
• numerical experiments
• ocean
• Japan
• forecasting
• seasonal variations