Domestic Election Monitoring and Advocacy: An Emerging Research Agenda

ABSTRACT

Holding elections has become a global norm, even in autocracies; at the same time, there is mounting evidence to suggest that flawed or failed elections pose serious risks for political stability, legitimacy, and participation. Scholars and practitioners alike increasingly see domestic election monitoring groups to be a partial remedy to electoral malpractice. At least half of elections globally are monitored by such groups and large sums of international aid spent on them. However, scholarly research about the causes, dynamics, and consequences of domestic election monitoring and advocacy is scattered. This article sets out to present an overview of the academic literature on domestic monitoring. It discusses activities and actors, and presents empirical insights on the prevalence, accuracy, credibility and impartiality of monitors, as well as participation in monitoring, and its impacts on electoral integrity. It outlines gaps and open questions for a future research agenda. The review contributes to the practice, empirics and theory of election monitoring and links to broader scholarly inquiries about the embedding of human rights norms in national elections.

KEYWORDS:

• Domestic Election Monitoring
• NGOs
• Democracy Assistance
• Democratisation
• Electoral Reform
• Advocacy
• Electoral Integrity

Acknowledgement

This work was supported by a PhD scholarship provided under the Australian Research Council Kathleen Fitzpatrick Australian Laureate Fellowship Award [FL110100093].

ORCID

Max Grömping http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1488-4436

Notes

1 David Carroll, as quoted in Eric Bjornlund and others, ‘Lessons from the Ground: What Have We Learned? What Do We Do next? Roundtable Discussion’ in Pippa Norris, Richard W Frank Frank and Ferran Martinez i Coma (eds), Advancing Electoral Integrity (Oxford University Press 2014) 275.

2 Anna Lührmann, Kelly McMann and Carolien van Ham, ‘The Effectiveness of Democracy Aid to Different Regime Types and Democracy Sectors’ (2016) 40 V-Dem Working Paper Series.

3 Based on the AidData database <http://aiddata.org/> accessed 18 November 2017.

4 See e.g. National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI), How Domestic Organizations Monitor Elections: An A to Z Guide (NDI 1995); OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), Handbook for Domestic Election Observers (ODIHR 2003); Paul O’Grady, Rafael Lopez-Pintor and Mark Stevens, The Work of Domestic Election Observer Groups Around the World (Electoral Reform International Services (ERIS)/European Commission 2004); NDI, Monitoring and Mitigating Electoral Violence Through Non-Partisan Citizen Election Observation (NDI 2014).

5 NDI, How Domestic Organizations Monitor Elections (n 4) vii.

6 In the context of this article, ‘electoral integrity’ refers to elections that adhere to ‘international conventions and global norms, applying universally to all countries worldwide throughout the electoral cycle, including during the pre-electoral period, the campaign, on polling day, and its aftermath. Conversely, the notion of ‘electoral malpractice’ is used to refer to […] violations of these global norms’: see Pippa Norris, ‘The New Research Agenda Studying Electoral Integrity’ (2013) 32(4) Electoral Studies 563, 564.

7 For a concise review of that literature see Judith G Kelley, ‘International Influences on Elections in New Multiparty States’ (2012) 15(1) Annual Review of Political Science 203. Since the publication of that review, other important works have been published, e.g. Ursula E Daxecker, ‘The Cost of Exposing Cheating International Election Monitoring, Fraud, and Post-Election Violence in Africa’ (2012) 49(4) Journal of Peace Research 503; Alberto Simpser and Daniela Donno, ‘Can International Election Monitoring Harm Governance?’ (2012) 74(2) The Journal of Politics 501; Daniela Donno, Defending Democratic Norms: International Actors and the Politics of Electoral Misconduct (Oxford University Press 2013); Susan D Hyde and Nikolay Marinov, ‘Information and Self-Enforcing Democracy: The Role of International Election Observation’ (2014) 68(2) International Organization 329.

8 Supplementary materials to this paper available online at <http://maxgromping.com/njhr-2017-35-4-supplementary-materials>

9 European Commission, Methodological Guide on Electoral Assistance (European Commission/EuropeAid Co-operation Office 2006).

10 See Eric Bjornlund, Beyond Free and Fair: Monitoring Elections and Building Democracy (Woodrow Wilson Center Press 2004) 41.

11 ibid 40.

12 Neil Nevitte and Santiago A Canton, ‘The Role of Domestic Observers’ (1997) 8(3) Journal of Democracy 45, 48.

13 Sharon F Lean, Civil Society and Electoral Accountability in Latin America (Palgrave Macmillan 2013) 7.

14 Seiichi Igarashi, ‘The Dilemma of Democratic Consolidation in the Philippines: The Contested Role of Civic Organizations in Electoral Governance’ (2008) 29(52) Philippine Political Science Journal 79, 90.

15 Sarah Birch and Carolien Van Ham, ‘Getting Away With Foul Play? The Importance of Formal and Informal Oversight Institutions for Electoral Integrity’ (2017) 56(3) European Journal of Political Research 487, 489.

16 Max Grömping, ‘Domestic Monitors’ in Pippa Norris and Alessandro Nai (eds), Election Watchdogs: Transparency, Accountability, and Integrity (Oxford University Press 2017).

17 See GNDEM, ‘Declaration of Principles for International Election Observation and a Code of Conduct for International Election Observers’ (commemorated at the United Nations, New York, 27 October 2005) <www.gndem.org/declaration-of-global-principles> accessed 18 November 2017.

18 NDI, How Domestic Organizations Monitor Elections (n 4).

19 ibid 4.

20 Nevitte and Canton (n 12).

21 Bjornlund (n 10) 40.

22 Lean (n 13) 7.

23 Ying Hooi Khoo, ‘Malaysia’s 13th General Elections and the Rise of Electoral Reform Movement: Rise of Malaysia’s Electoral Reform Movement’ (2016) 8(3) Asian Politics & Policy 418.

24 See Andrey Semenov, Olesya Lobanova and Margarita Zavadskaya, ‘When Do Political Parties Join Protests? A Comparative Analysis Of Party Involvement In “For Fair Elections Movement” (2016) 32(1) East European Politics 81; Eva-Lotta E Hedman, ‘Mapping the Movement: NAMFREL in Six Philippine Cities’ (1999) 7(2) South East Asia Research 189, respectively.

25 Jack Vowles, ‘The Politics of Electoral Reform in New Zealand’ (1995) 16(1) International Political Science Review 95.

26 Karen Celis, Mona Lena Krook and Petra Meier, ‘The Rise of Gender Quota Laws: Expanding the Spectrum of Determinants for Electoral Reform’ (2011) 34(3) West European Politics 514.

27 Jeffrey M Berry, Lobbying for the People: The Political Behavior of Public Interest Groups (Princeton University Press 1977) 9.

28 Patrick Merloe, ‘Election Monitoring vs Disinformation’ (2015) 26(3) Journal of Democracy 79. However, for a different view see William A Callahan, Pollwatching, Elections and Civil Society in Southeast Asia (Ashgate 1999).

29 Steven Livingston, ‘Digital Affordances and Human Rights Advocacy’ (2016) 69 SFB-Governance Working Paper Series.

30 Archon Fung, ‘Popular Election Monitoring: How Technology Can Enable Citizen Participation in Election Administration’ in Guy-Uriel E Charles, Heather K Gerken and Michael S Kang (eds), Race, Reform, and Regulation of the Electoral Process: Recurring Puzzles in American Democracy (Cambridge University Press 2011).

31 Thomas N Smyth and others, Lessons in Social Election Monitoring (ACM 2016).

32 Max Grömping, ‘Many Eyes Of Any Kind? Comparing Traditional and Crowdsourced Election Monitoring and Their Contribution to Democracy’ (2nd International Conference on International Relations and Development [ICIRD 2012], 26–27 July 2012); Catie Snow Bailard and Steven Livingston, ‘Crowdsourcing Accountability in a Nigerian Election’ (2014) 11(4) Journal of Information Technology & Politics 349.

33 Bailard and Livingston (n 32).

34 Max Bader, ‘Crowdsourcing Election Monitoring in the 2011–2012 Russian Elections’ (2013) 29(4) East European Politics 1.

35 Erkan Saka, ‘Tracking Digital Emergences in the Aftermath of Gezi Park Protests’ (2017) 2(1) Research and Policy on Turkey 62.

36 Uuf Brajawidagda and Akemi Takeoka Chatfield, Roles of Social Media in Open Data Environments: A Case Study of the 2014 Indonesian Presidential Election Voting Results (ACIS 2014); Dini Suryani, ‘Defending Democracy: Citizen Participation in Election Monitoring in Post-Authoritarian Indonesia’ (2015) 6(1) Jurnal Studi Pemerintahan 1; Diego F Aranha, Helder Ribeiro and André Luis Ogando Paraense, ‘Crowdsourced Integrity Verification Of Election Results’ (2016) Annals of Telecommunications 1; Carlos R Arias, Jorge Garcia and Alejandro Corpeño, ‘Population as Auditor of an Election Process in Honduras: The Case of the VotoSocial Crowdsourcing Platform’ (2015) 7(2) Policy & Internet 185.

37 Max Grömping, ‘“Echo Chambers”: Partisan Facebook Groups during the 2014 Thai Election’ (2014) 24(1) Asia Pacific Media Educator 39; Paul O Lazarus and Tulika A Saraf, Social Media Fostering Social Good: A Case of Election Monitoring in Nigeria (ACM 2015); Smyth and others (n 31).

38 ‘Initiative’ is preferred to ‘organisation’ because it does not bias the analysis towards legacy brick-and-mortar organisations or NGOs. See also Grömping, ‘Domestic Monitors’ (n 16).

39 Lean (n 13).

40 Merloe (n 28) 79.

41 Grömping, ‘Domestic Monitors’ (n 16).

42 ibid

43 Yulia Skokova, ‘НАБЛЮДАТЕЛИ НА ВЫБОРАХ В РОССИИ [Observers at the elections in Russia]’ [2015] Sotsiologicheskie Issledovaniya 57.

44 Arias, Garcia and Corpeño (n 36).

45 Johan Hellström, ‘Crowdsourcing as a Tool for Political Participation? The Case of Ugandawatch’ (2015) 11(1) International Journal of Public Information Systems 1.

46 Khoo (n 23).

47 Nevitte and Canton (n 12) 60.

48 Miguel R Rueda, ‘Small Aggregates, Big Manipulation: Vote Buying Enforcement and Collective Monitoring’ (2017) 61(1) American Journal of Political Science 163.

49 Bader (n 34).

50 Aranha, Ribeiro and Paraense (n 36); Arias, Garcia and Corpeño (n 36).

51 Agustín Casas, Guillermo Diaz and André Trindade, ‘Who Monitors the Monitor? Effect of Party Observers on Electoral Outcomes’ (2017) 145 Journal of Public Economics 136.

52 Skokova (n 43).

53 Arias, Garcia and Corpeño (n 36).

54 Svitlana Chernykh and Milan W Svolik, ‘Third-Party Actors and the Success of Democracy: How Electoral Commissions, Courts, and Observers Shape Incentives for Electoral Manipulation and Post-Election Protests’ (2015) 77(2) The Journal of Politics 407.

55 Lean (n 13).

56 Merloe (n 28).

57 Alexander Boniface Makulilo, ‘“Watching the Watcher”: An Evaluation of Local Election Observers in Tanzania’ (2011) 49(2) The Journal of Modern African Studies 241.

58 Maria Debre and Lee Morgenbesser, ‘Out of the Shadows: Autocratic Regimes, Election Observation and Legitimation’ (2017) 23(3) Contemporary Politics 328.

59 Susan D Hyde, ‘Why Believe International Election Monitors?’ in Peter Alexis Gourevitch, David A Lake and Janice Gross Stein (eds), The Credibility of Transnational NGOs When Virtue Is Not Enough (Cambridge University Press 2012).

60 Sandra Botero and others, ‘Says Who? An Experiment on Allegations of Corruption and Credibility of Sources’ (2015) 68(3) Political Research Quarterly 493.

61 Sarah Sunn Bush and Lauren Prather, ‘The Promise and Limits of Election Observers in Building Election Credibility’ (2017) 79(3) The Journal of Politics 921.

62 Merloe (n 28).

63 Makulilo (n 57).

64 Debre and Morgenbesser (n 58).

65 Birch and Van Ham (n 15).

66 Celis, Krook and Meier (n 26).

67 Pippa Norris, ‘Cultural Explanations of Electoral Reform: A Policy Cycle Model’ (2011) 34(3) West European Politics 531.

68 Semenov, Lobanova and Zavadskaya (n 24).

69 Vowles (n 25).

70 Lean (n 13).

71 Horacio R Trujillo and others, ‘The Role of Information and Communication Technology in Preventing Election-Related Violence in Kenya, 2013’ (2014) 13(1–2) Perspectives on Global Development and Technology 111.

72 Nevitte and Canton (n 12).

73 James D Fearon, ‘Self-Enforcing Democracy’ (2011) 126(4) Quarterly Journal of Economics 1661; Andrew T Little, ‘Elections, Fraud, and Election Monitoring in the Shadow of Revolution’ (2012) 7(3) Quarterly Journal of Political Science 249; Chernykh and Svolik (n 54).

74 Bush and Prather (n 61).

75 Hyde and Marinov (n 7).

76 Joseph Asunka and others, ‘Electoral Fraud or Violence: The Effect of Observers on Party Manipulation Strategies’ (2017) British Journal of Political Science 1, doi:10.1017/S0007123416000491; Ruben Enikolopov and others, ‘Field Experiment Estimate of Electoral Fraud in Russian Parliamentary Elections’ (2013) 110(2) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 448; Nahomi Ichino and Matthias Schündeln, ‘Deterring or Displacing Electoral Irregularities? Spillover Effects of Observers in a Randomized Field Experiment in Ghana’ (2012) 74(1) The Journal of Politics 292; Stefanus Leeffers and Pedro C Vicente, Does Electoral Observation Influence Electoral Results? Experimental Evidence for Domestic and International Observers in Mozambique (2017); Fredrik M Sjoberg, ‘Making Voters Count: Evidence From Field Experiments about the Efficacy of Domestic Election Observation’ (2012) October 2012 Columbia University Harriman Institute Working Paper.

77 Michael Callen and James D Long, ‘Institutional Corruption and Election Fraud: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Afghanistan’ (2015) 105(1) The American Economic Review 354; Michael Callen and others, ‘Improving Electoral Integrity with Information and Communications Technology’ (2016) 3(1) Journal of Experimental Political Science 4.

78 Paul Collier and Pedro C Vicente, ‘Votes and Violence: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Nigeria’ (2014) 124(574) Economic Journal F327.

79 Andrei Buzin, Kevin Brondum and Graeme Robertson, ‘Election Observer Effects: A Field Experiment in the Russian Duma Election of 2011’ (2016) 44 Electoral Studies 184.

80 Birch and Van Ham (n 15).