Hacking Back: Trump’s “Madman Theory” Approach to Cybersecurity

Abstract

With the swift advancement in communication technology, there has been an increase in computer-related attacks targeting both the software and hardware of nations’ computer systems. Historically, the United States has taken a cautious, defensive-oriented approach to deal with its adversaries in cyberspace. The Trump administration strategy is a hyper-aggressive, offense-first approach to deter its enemies from attacking. This shift in tactics, i.e., the “Madman Theory” approach against one’s adversaries, is a similar posture to that of President Nixon in his administrations’ effort to end the War in Vietnam. Just like Nixon in Vietnam, there is a tradeoff with this approach. As the United States has stepped up its aggressiveness against cyber adversaries, the possibility is now very real for the Trump administration of an all-out war in cyberspace.

Keywords:

• Cyber-intelligence
• cyber-terrorism
• national cyber strategy
• Madman Theory
• privacy

Notes

1 The Stuxnet worm has been labeled the most complex malware ever and has also earned the name of the world's "first real cyberweapon." The reason why the Stuxnet virus is so dangerous is because of its "method of infection" in that the malware was "self-replicating and designed to infect systems that were not connected to the Internet." It is estimated that Stuxnet was specifically directed at solely targeting the Iranian centrifuges and caused severe physical damage to as many as 1,000 centrifuges. The Stuxnet attack on a piece of Iran's critical infrastructure is an example of a cyber weapon causing physical damage, that some argue constituted a use of force. For more, see Berger (2017).

2 Hard law is defined as the rules and regulations that make up legal systems in the traditional sense, and soft law consists of those informal rules that are non-binding but, due to cultural norms or standards of conduct, have practical effect (Power and Tobin, 2011).

3 In the 10 years [2008] to 2018 a large number of national policies and strategies have been published specifically addressing cybersecurity and cyberdefense. Although these policies and strategies address similar issues, there is significant variation in approaches given national priorities and conceptualizations of the issues at hand. The Trump administration’s National Cyber Strategy reflects this administrations’ national priorities and conceptualization of the issues. For more on this, see Dewar, R. S. National cybersecurity and cyberdefense policy snapshots. Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich. https://css.ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/gess/cis/center-for-securities-studies/pdfs/Cyber-Reports_National_Cybersecurity_and_Cyberdefense_Policy_Snapshots_Collection_1.pdf.

4 Cyber tools are network security tools that can be either software- or hardware-based and help security teams protect their organization’s networks, critical infrastructure, and sensitive data from attacks (Network Security Tool Examples & Usage, 2019).

5 It is important to note that the United States has continued to work with its international partners. One initiative the US is involved with is the Global Cybersecurity Agenda (GSA), which is a UN agency whose "framework for international cooperation is aimed at enhancing confidence and security in the information society." The GCA is designed for cooperation and efficiency, encouraging collaboration with and between all relevant partners and building on existing initiatives to avoid duplicating efforts. For more on this, see https://www.unodc.org/e4j/en/cybercrime/module-8/key-issues/international-cooperation-on-cybersecurity-matters.html and https://www.itu.int/en/action/cybersecurity/Pages/gca.aspx.

6 During Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to the US in 2015, the two major powers agreed not to hack each other's critical infrastructure during peacetime. For more, see Lin (2019).

7 The NotPetya campaign, in particular, scored some major hits. Courier firm FedEx warned its shareholders of significant losses—up to $300m—as a result of disrupted operations, remedial costs, inability to invoice, potential litigation and other legal costs, reputational damage and more. It also said that some of the damage might be permanent, probably as a result of the fact that the attackers behind NotPetya did not seem to have much interest in collecting ransoms and letting people recover their data. Container shipping firm Maersk, responsible for around 15% of global shipping, was forced to shut down 76 terminals at ports around the world. For more on this, see Mansfield-Devine (2017).

8 In addition, targeted cyberattacks could pose a great threat to the public due to interconnectivity and reliance on public switch telecommunications. This could create an untenable situation for public safety officials and health providers and decimate public trust and social integrity. For more on this, see Visvizi (2015) and Boussios (2019).

9 On explaining what actions international law determines are an act of war, see Eichensehr (2014).