Causality between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Tourism Using Three-dimensional Wavelet-based Approaches

ABSTRACT

This study provides new insights into the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and tourism activities in the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries. We used continuous three-dimensional wavelets based on Granger causality analysis to investigate the relationship between EPU and tourism using the annual data. The finding shows that the relationships between the variables evolve through time and frequencies. We uncover significant wavelet coherence and strong lead–lag relationships changing over time, displaying low- to high-frequency cycles over the whole sample period.

摘要

这项研究主要探讨金砖四国 (巴西, 俄罗斯, 印度与中国) 的经济政策不确定性 (EPU) 与旅游活动之间的关系提供了新的观点。本研究基于Granger因果关系使用连续三维小波方法與年度数据来研究经济政策不确定性与旅游活动之间的关系。研究结果表明, 变量之间的相互关系随时间和频率变化而变化。我们发现随时间变化有显着的小波相干性和强大的超前-滞后关系, 并且在整个采样周期内显示出从低频到高频的周期。

KEYWORDS:

• BRIC tourism activities
• economic policy uncertainty
• three-dimensional wavelet analysis
• time domains
• frequency domains

关键词:

• 金砖四国的旅游活动
• 经济政策的不确定性
• 三维小波分析
• 时域
• 频域

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1. Without smoothing, the squared wavelet coherence is always one at any frequencies and time. Smoothing is achieved by convolution in time and frequencies; see Torrence and Compo (1998) for details.

Additional information

Funding

This study was supported by Department of Education of Guangdong Province (Grant Number 2018WTSCX214).

Notes on contributors

Tsung-Pao Wu

Tsung-Pao Wu is Professor in School of Accounting and Finance at Beijing Institute of Technology, Zhuhai, Guangdong Province, China. He received his Ph.D. in finance from Feng Chia University. His research interest focuses on tourism economics (E-mail: [email protected]).

Hung-Che Wu

Hung-Che Wu is Associate Professor in Business School at Nanfang College of Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangdong Province, China. He received his Ph.D. in marketing and economics from Lincoln University. His research interests include tourism economics, green marketing, hospitality management, service quality, customer satisfaction and consumer behavior (E-mail: [email protected]).

Yu-Yu Wu

Yu-Yu Wu is Postdoctoral Fellow in Faculty of Business Administration at University of Macau, Macau SAR, China. She received her Ph.D. in tourism economics from Sun Yat-Sen University (E-mail: [email protected]).

Su-Tsung Wu

Su-Tsung Wu is Postdoctoral Fellow in School of Tourism Management at Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangdong Province, China. He received his Ph.D. in tourism economics from Sun Yat-Sen University (E-mail: [email protected]).

Shu-Yen Liao

Shu-Yen Liao is Postdoctoral Fellow in School of Economics and Management at Tsinghua University, Beijing, China. She received her Ph.D. in economics from Oklahoma State University (E-mail: [email protected]).