Probabilistic forecasting and the reshaping of flood risk management

Abstract

Advances in probabilistic forecasting, notably based on ensemble prediction systems, are transforming flood risk management. Four trends shaping the assimilation of probabilistic flood forecasting into flood risk management are longer forecasting lead times, advances in decision-making aids, inclusion of probabilistic forecasting in hazard mitigation and collaboration between researchers and managers. Confronting how to use probabilistic flood forecasts to make binary management decisions for reducing flood losses requires developing institutional capacity while acknowledging flood risk estimation is one component of decision making under uncertainty in an evolving policy landscape.

Keywords:

• flood risk management
• flood forecasting
• water resources management
• probabilistic forecasting
• uncertainty in decision making
• ensemble prediction systems

Acknowledgements

The research for this paper was made possible with faculty development leave support from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln and a faculty fellowship from the Advanced Study Program, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado. Three anonymous reviewers provided constructive comments on an earlier draft and Dr. Dannele Peck, Associate Editor, Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research provided technical editing.