System analysis of the fast global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread. Can we avoid future pandemics under global climate change?

ABSTRACT

The recent fast global spread of COVID-19 caused by a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) questions why and how the disease managed to be so effective against existing health protection measures. These measures, developed by many countries over centuries and strengthened over the last decades, proved to be ineffective against COVID-19. The sharp increase in human longevity and current transport systems in economically developing countries with the background of persisting cultural frameworks and stable local pools of high bacterial and viral mutations generated the wide gap between the established health protection systems and the new emerging diseases. SARS-CoV-2 targets human populations over the world with long incubation periods, often without symptoms, and serious outcomes. Hence, novel strategies are necessary to meet the demands of developing economic and social environments. Moreover, the ongoing climate change adds extra challenges while altering the existing system of interactions in biological populations and in human society. Climate change may lead to new sources of viral and microbial mutations, new ways of zoonotic disease transmission and to huge social and economic transformations in many countries. The present short Opinion applies a system approach linking biomedical, climate change, social and economic aspects and, accordingly, discusses the measures and more efficient means to avoid future pandemics.

Keywords:

• global climate change
• COVID-19
• system approach
• zoonosis
• pandemic

Acknowledgments

The Author thanks colleagues from ICL, London Metropolitan University and Russian Academy of Sciences who stimulated the way of biomedical thinking over long-term discussions within many years. The Author sincerely thanks Tim Flowers for comments on the first draft of the text. Due to the lack of space, very few publications on COVID-19 are cited in the text.

Author contribution

The author considered and prepared the Manuscript based on the present available information.

Disclosure statement

The author declares that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Additional information

Funding

The research was carried out within the state assignment of Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (theme No. 121040800153-1).