Examining the persistence of telecommuting after the COVID-19 pandemic

ABSTRACT

This study focuses on the long-term impacts of COVID-19 on telecommuting behavior. We seek to study the future of telecommuting, in the post-pandemic era, by capturing the evolution of observed behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic. To do so, we implemented a comprehensive multi-wave nationwide panel survey (the Future Survey) in the U.S. throughout 2020 and 2021. A panel Generalized Structural Equation Model (GSEM) was used to investigate the effects of two perceptual factors on telecommuting behavior: (1) perceived risk of COVID-19; and (2) perceived telecommuting productivity. The findings of this study reveal significant and positive impacts of productivity and COVID-risk perception on telecommuting behavior. Moreover, the findings indicate a potential shift in preferences toward telecommuting in the post-pandemic era for millennials, employees with long commute times, high-income, and highly educated employees. Overall, a potential increase in telecommuting frequency is expected in the post-pandemic era, with differences across socio-economic groups.

KEYWORDS:

• Telecommute
• work from home
• COVID-19
• productivity
• risk perception
• generalized structural equation model

Acknowledgments

This research was supported in part by the National Science Foundation (NSF) RAPID program under grants no. 2030156 and 2029962 and by the Center for Teaching Old Models New Tricks (TOMNET), a University Transportation Center sponsored by the U.S. Department of Transportation through grant no. 69A3551747116, as well as by the Knowledge Exchange for Resilience at Arizona State University. This COVID-19 Working Group effort was also supported by the NSF-funded Social Science Extreme Events Research (SSEER) network and the CONVERGE facility at the Natural Hazards Center at the University of Colorado Boulder (NSF Award #1841338) and the NSF CAREER award under grant no. 155173. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the funders.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the National Science Foundation [2030156].