Linkage mechanism of public transport subsidy: considering passenger ridership, cost, fare and service quality

ABSTRACT

Under the long-term implementation of the low fare policy for public transport in China, the phenomenon of unsustainable subsidies is increasingly obvious. We take into account three related stakeholders including the public, operators and government, and comprehensively consider various factors affecting public transport subsidies, and establish a linkage mechanism of the subsidy based on passenger ridership, cost, fare and service quality. We propose a combination forecasting model (CFM) composed of quadratic exponential smoothing model (QESM) and Grey theory model (GM) to forecast passenger ridership. The results show that the CFM improves the forecast accuracy of passenger ridership, the factors considered in the linkage mechanism are more comprehensive, and the results are reasonable. By using this linkage mechanism, the government or operators can establish long-term or mid-term development plans to provide a systematic and theoretical reference, which is conducive to the healthy and stable development of public transport.

KEYWORDS:

• public transport
• subsidy
• passenger ridership forecast
• cost regulation
• fare management
• linkage mechanism

Acknowledgments

The authors thank the managers and respondents at the sector of public transport in Shaoxing for providing data and information that were essential for this work. This paper is largely supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71901196), Humanities and Social Sciences Project, Ministry of Education in China (Grant No. 19YJCZH238), Major Humanities and Social Sciences Project of Universities in Zhejiang Province, China (Grant No. 2018QN028) and Philosophy and Social Science Project of Zhejiang Province, China (Grant No. 19NDQN361YB).

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1. Ministry of Transport: Opinions on Comprehensively Promoting the Development of Green Transport [EB/OL]. http://xxgk.mot.gov.cn/jigou/zcyjs/201712/t20171206_2973177.html

2. The data come from Statistical Yearbook of China City Construction (2019).

3. Public transport: Public transport in the conventional sense includes buses and trams, rail transit, taxis and other transport methods (cableways, etc.). The research scope of public transport in this paper is public buses and trams. Unless otherwise specified, it is replaced by public transport. Due to the particularity and relative independence of rail transit, it is not included in the scope of public transport in this paper.

4. https://www.sx.gov.cn/art/2008/8/4/art_1467567_158726.html

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [71901196]; Philosophy and Social Science Project of Zhejiang Province, China [19NDQN361YB]; Major Humanities and Social Sciences Project of Universities in Zhejiang Province, China [2018QN028]; Humanities and Social Sciences Project, Ministry of Education in China [19YJCZH238].