Chapter Two: The dynamics of militarisation

Abstract

Latin American countries embraced liberal democracy as the antidote to the past ills of military dictatorships, human-rights abuses and extreme poverty. Yet, more than twenty years on, states are still embroiled in armed combat with rebels who export their violence and traffic drugs across borders, threatening to draw neighbouring states into conflict with one another. Throughout the region, there is a tendency to supplement diplomatic action with military posturing. As ideological rivalries reassert themselves and competition for resources increases, so does the risk that political confrontation may once again get out of hand and destabilise regional relations.

The regional security architecture is not well-suited to controlling these risks, and neither the US nor rising power Brazil is playing the role of regional mediator. Though few incidents have escalated into war over the last two decades, the shifting regional power balance, together with a rise in authoritarian government and growth in defence spending, give cause for concern. This Adelphi analyses the sources of inter-state conflict in Latin America and the potential policy options to tackle the region's cycle of instability.

Notes

See Mares, Violent Peace.

Jorge Martín, ‘The Handing over of Pérez Becerra and the Strategy of the Venezuelan Revolution’, 5 May 2011, venezuelanalysis.com, http://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/6168.

David Scott Palmer, ‘Peru–Ecuador Border Conflict Missed Opportunities, Misplaced Nationalism, and Multilateral Peacekeeping’, Journal of InterAmerican Studies and World Affairs, vol. 39, no. 3, autumn 1997, pp. 109–48.

Alex Sanchez, ‘Bolivia's Military: It's a Difficult Life, but Certainly There Is No Sign of a Pending Military Coup’, Council on Hemispheric Affairs, 5 November 2008, http://www.coha.org/bolivia_E280_99s-militaryit_E2_80_99s-a-difficult-life-but-no-signof-a-military-coup-yet/.

‘ALBA Tells OAS to Stay Out of Venezuela's Affairs’, Caribbean Net News, 22 February 2011, http://www.caribbeannewsnow.com/venezuela.php?news_id=5151&start=0&category_id=12.

David A. Baldwin, Economic Statecraft (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1985); I.M. Destler and John Odell, assisted by Kimberly Ann Elliott, AntiProtection: Changing Forces in United States Trade Politics (Washington DC: Institute for International Economics, 1987); Lisa L. Martin, Coercive Cooperation: Exploring Multilateral Economic Sanctions (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1992).

‘Guyana Recommits to Peaceful Resolution of Border Issue with Venezuela’, Caribbean Net News, 10 July 2010, http://www.caribbeannewsnow.com/caribnet/venezuela/venezuela.php?news_id=23915&start=0&category_id=12; ‘Caribbean Leaders Welcome Move to Settle Border Dispute between Guyana and Venezuela’, Caribbean Net News, 5 March 2011, http://www.caribbeannewsnow.com/venezuela.php?news_id=5345&start=0&category_id=12.

Alex Sanchez, ‘All is Not Well in Georgetown: Guyana's Emerging Hemispheric Role’, Council on Hemispheric Affairs, 23 January 2008, http://www.coha.org/although-all-isnot-well-in-georgetown-guyana_E2_80_99s-emerging-hemispheric-role/.

Inter-American Development Bank, ‘High Taxes and Evasion Eroding Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean’, 4 March 2010, http://www.iadb.org/en/news/webstories/2010-03-04/tax-burdenand-evasion-in-latin-america-idbstudy.6619.html.

John Baffes, ‘Placing the 2006/08 Commodity Price Boom into Perspective’, World Bank Blog ‘Prospects for Development’, 26 July 2010, http://blogs.worldbank.org/prospects/placing-the-200608commodity-price-boom-into-perspective; ‘Commodity Markets’ The World Bank, available at http://econ.worldbank.org.

‘Costa Rica Sends New Police Unit to Border’, TicoTimes.net, 31 March 2011, http://www.ticotimes.net/Current-Edition/News-Briefs/CostaRica-sends-new-police-unit-to-border_Thursday-March-31-2011.

Mares, Violent Peace, pp. 132–55.

‘La Renovación es Justificada, pero la Cantidad Adquirida No’, Correo, 1 November 2009, reproduced in Enfoque Estratégico, 9 November 2009, http://www.enfoque-estrategico.com/reportajes/cesar_cruz.htm.

Mike Ceaser, ‘Chávez's “Citizen Militias” on the March’, BBC, 1 July 2005; Kiraz Janicke, ‘Venezuela Creates Peasant Militias, Enacts Federal Government Council’, Venezuelanalysis.com, 22 February 2010, http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/5150.

‘Colombia y Brasil Negocian Plan Binacional de Seguridad Fronteriza’, 2 July 2011, http://maquina-de-combate.com/blog/archives/16566.

‘11 April 2011: World military spending reached $1.6 trillion in 2010, biggest increase in South America, fall in Europe according to new SIPRI data’, http://www.sipri.org/media/pressreleases/milex.

‘15 Mar 2010: New SIPRI data on international arms transfers reflect arms race concerns’, http://www.sipri.org/media/pressreleases/2010/100315armstransfers.

‘Arms-R-Us: South America Goes Shopping: A WOLA Report on South American Defense Expenditures’, March 2010, http://www.seguridadfip.org/boletinestudiosdefensa/boletin40estudios/ArmsRUsSouthAmericaGoesShopping.pdf.

Chile's submarines have significantly better technology than Peru's, giving Chile advantages in days at sea, detection of targets and combat capabilities. ‘La Renovación es Justificada, pero la Cantidad Adquirida No’.

The Military Balance 2011 (London: Routledge for IISS), pp. 352–3.

James Brooke, ‘Fiery Nationalism Drove Venezuelan Plotters’, New York Times, 11 February 1992, p. A6.

Venezuelan military posturing is not new. In 1979, Venezuelan planes overflew Costa Rica as a warning to the Somoza government about pursuing rebels into Costa Rican territory.

Alfred Stepan, Military in Politics: Changing Patterns in Brazil (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1971); Luigi R. Einaudi, The Peruvian Military (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 1969).

John Sweeney, ‘Venezuela and Colombia: The FAN is Outmatched’ Hispanic American Center for Economic Research, 2006, http://www.hacer.org/current/Vene035.php.

Sara Miller Llana, ‘Venezuela's Chávez Softens Stance’, Christian Science Monitor, 14 July 2008.

Stephen J. Blank, ‘Russia and Latin America: Motives and Consequences’, Center for Hemispheric Policy, University of Miami, 13 April 2010, p. 10.

R. Evan Ellis, China–Latin America Military Engagement: Good Will, Good Business, and Strategic Position (Carlyle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, 2011).

Latin American Data Base, ‘Nicaraguan Missiles and Honduran Warplanes on Political Collision Course’, NotiCen, 2 August 2007.

Susan Abad, ‘Fábricas de armas y municiones de Venezuela desequilibrarían la región’, El Comercio, Peru, www.elcomercioperu.com.pe?EdicionImpresa/Html/2006-12-17/ImEcMundo0634393.html; Matthew Walter, ‘Chávez Goes Weapons Shopping in Russia Amid Arms Race (Update2), Bloomberg.com, 21 July 2008.

‘Supplemental Agreement for Cooperation and Technical Assistance in Defense and Security between the governments of The United States of America and the Republic of Colombia, 11 November 2009’, cited in ‘Arms R Us’.

Nathaniel Frandino, ‘Chile to Send Army to Guard Bolivian Border’, Santiago Times, 13 July 2011, http://santiagotimes.cl/atacama-times/regional-news/21960-chile-to-sendarmy-to-guard-bolivian-border.

J.C. Arancibia, ‘Bolivian Troops Cross Into Chile’, Chile's Defense and Military, 17 June 2011, http://chiledefense.blogspot.com/2011/06/bolivian-troopscross-into-chile.html.

‘Autoridades de ambos países coincidirán en Mercosur y luego en CELAC: Chile y Bolivia se reencuentran en citas cumbres tras tensas semanas’, El Mercurio, 27 June 2011, http://diario.elmercurio.com/detalle/index.asp?id={32f7156b-a74e4cd5-a721-3e6c3beb5d1a}.

The combination of nationalism and populism can come together across a wide spectrum of political ideologies, from left to right; hence the concept of national populism doesn't necessarily imply fascist-style, right-wing nationalist movements. See Yannis Papadopoulos, ‘NationalPopulism in Western Europe: An Ambivalent Phenomenon’, unpublished MS, Institut d'Etudes Politiques et Internationales, Université de Lausanne; see also, Kurt Weyland, ‘Clarifying a Contested Concept: Populism in the Study of Latin American Politics’, Comparative Politics, vol. 34, no. 1, October 2001, pp. 1–22.

John Daly, ‘Bolivia's Natural Gas Reserves Now on Political Firing Line’, OilPrice.com, 7 March 2012, http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Bolivias-Natural-Gas-Reserves-Nowon-Political-Firing-Line.htm.

‘Bolivia: Investment Dries Up’, Petroleum Economist, July 2008 http://www.petroleum-economist.com/default.asp?page=14&PubID=46&ISS=24836&SID=708318.

See Richard K. Betts, Soldiers, Statesmen and Cold War Crises (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1977).