Chapter Three: Latin American hot spots

Abstract

Latin American countries embraced liberal democracy as the antidote to the past ills of military dictatorships, human-rights abuses and extreme poverty. Yet, more than twenty years on, states are still embroiled in armed combat with rebels who export their violence and traffic drugs across borders, threatening to draw neighbouring states into conflict with one another. Throughout the region, there is a tendency to supplement diplomatic action with military posturing. As ideological rivalries reassert themselves and competition for resources increases, so does the risk that political confrontation may once again get out of hand and destabilise regional relations.

The regional security architecture is not well-suited to controlling these risks, and neither the US nor rising power Brazil is playing the role of regional mediator. Though few incidents have escalated into war over the last two decades, the shifting regional power balance, together with a rise in authoritarian government and growth in defence spending, give cause for concern. This Adelphi analyses the sources of inter-state conflict in Latin America and the potential policy options to tackle the region's cycle of instability.

Notes

Jeremy McDermott, ‘Colombia Border Province Sees Rebel Attacks Increase’, BBC News, 18 June 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-13762982.

Alberto Rovira, ‘Colombia's Santos Not Interested in Peace Talks with FARC’, Infosurhoy.com, 14 February 2011, http://www.infosurhoy.com/cocoon/saii/xhtml/en_GB/features/saii/features/main/2011/02/14/feature-03.

Adriaan Alsema, ‘Santos' Urban Approval Rating at 67%: Gallup’, Colombiareports.com, 1 July 2011, http://colombiareports.com/colombia-news/news/17333-santosurban-approval-rating-at-67-gallup.html; Arturo Wallace, ‘Colombia's FARC Rebels: Retreating or Resurgent?’, BBC News, 19 July 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-14186159.

‘Colombia's Santos Outlines New Tactics against Rebels’, BBC News, 8 August 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-14441241.

‘Colombia Defence Minister Resigns; Deep Reshuffle in Forces Anticipated’, MercoPress, 31 August 2011, http://en.mercopress.com/2011/08/31/colombia-defence-minister-resignsdeep-reshuffle-in-forces-anticipated.

César Morales Colón, ‘Colombia Security Force Score with “Operation Sword of Honor”’, Infosurhoy.com, 22 March 2012, http://infosurhoy.com/cocoon/saii/xhtml/en_GB/features/saii/features/main/2012/03/22/feature-03.

Jack Kimball, ‘Colombia Rebel Hit Doesn't Boost Santos Popularity’, Reuters, 16 November 2011, http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/colombia-rebelhit-doesnt-boost-santos-popularity.

Milburn Line, ‘Trying to End Colombia's Battle with FARC’, Foreign Affairs, 27 March 2012, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137354/milburn-line/trying-to-end-colombiasbattle-with-farc?page=2.

US Government Accounting Office, ‘Drug Reduction Goals Were Not Fully Met, but Security Has Improved; US Agencies Need More Detailed Plans for Reducing Assistance’, GAO-09-71, 6 October 2008.

Jeremy McDermott ‘Colombia's Rebels: A Fading Force?’, BBC News, 1 February 2008, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7217817.stm; Frank Bajak, ‘Colombia's FARC Executes 4 Captives’, Associated Press, 26 November 2011, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/26/colombias-farc-executions_n_1114624.html.

The Military Balance 2012 (London, Routledge for IISS), pp. 364 and 404. Inflation hit 28.2% in 2010, and dropped only slightly to 25.8% in 2011.

‘ARMY, Venezuela’, Jane's Sentinel Security Assessment – South America, 13 November 2007, http://www.janes.com/articles/indepth/sams.html.

‘ARMY, Colombia’, Jane's Sentinel Security Assessment – South America, 14 February 2008, http://www.janes.com/articles/indepth/sams.html.

‘Colombian Exports to Venezuela Are Vital’, El Universal, 28 July 2009, http://english.eluniversal.com/2009/07/28/en_eco_esp_colombian-exportsto_28A2552123.shtml.

Drew Benson and Matthew Walter, ‘Colombia Peso Drops Most in a Month as Venezuela Blocks Imports’, Bloomberg.com, 29 July 2009.

Alan Fairlie Reinoso, ‘Peru and Colombia: Similar Strategies, Contrasting Reactions’, Latin America Trade Network, August 2010, http://www.latn.org.ar/web/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/FLA_GTA_06_PeruCol_Sept06.pdf; Elyssa Pachico ,‘Venezuelan Trade Ban Hurts Colombia’, Colombiareports.com, 24 February 2010, http://colombiareports.com/colombia-news/economy/8392venezuelan-trade-ban-hurtingcolombia-study-finds.html.

IISS, The FARC Files.

Colombia did not mobilise additional forces to the borders after Chávez ordered the deployment of 9,000 soldiers, tanks and planes and Ecuador deployed 3,200 troops to the regions. Patrick Goodenough, ‘US, Colombia Call for Calm Over Military Incursion Clash’, CNSNews.com, 3 March 2008; Peter Walker, ‘Ecuador Ready for “Ultimate Consequences” in Regional Crisis’, Guardian, 5 March 2008, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/mar/04/colombia.venezuela.

Brian Ellsworth, ‘Venezuela Mobilizes Forces to Colombia Border’, Reuters, 5 March 2008, http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN0227633020080305?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews.

‘Colombians Would Vote Again for Uribe’, Angus Reid Global Monitor: Polls & Research, 29 March 2008, http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/colombians_would_vote_again_for_uribe/.

‘Uribe Right About Venezuela, Say Colombians’, Angus Reid Global Monitor: Polls & Research, 29 January 2008, http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/uribe_right_about_venezuela_say_colombians/.

Alsema, ‘Santos' Urban Approval Rating at 67%: Gallup’.

Angus Reid Global Monitor: Polls & Research, ‘Colombia, Ecuador Assess Cross-border Incursion’, poll conducted by Centro Nacional de Consultoría and Cedatos-Gallup, released by C&M, 9 March 2008, http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/30098/colombia_ecuador_assess_cross_border_incursion.

‘Venezuelans Don't Want War with Colombia’, Angus Reid Global Monitor: Polls & Research, 14 March 2008, http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/venezuelans_dont_want_war_with_colombia/.

This was part of his rhetoric when he rushed in to the Colombia–Ecuador dispute. Ellsworth, ‘Venezuela Mobilizes Forces to Colombia Border’.

Martín, ‘The Handing Over of Pérez Becerra’.

See Reporters without Borders, ‘Colombia’, http://en.rsf.org/colombia.html; Liam Whittington, ‘A Legal Wasteland – Lawyers, Murder, Democracy, and Justice in Colombia’, Council on Hemispheric Affairs, 4 December 2011, http://www.coha.org/a-legal-wasteland-E28093-lawyersmurder-democracy-and-justice-incolombia/.

‘Democracy and Human Rights in Venezuela’, Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, OAS, OEA/Ser.L/V/II, 30 December 2009, http://cidh.org/countryrep/Venezuela2009eng/VE09.TOC.eng.htm.

David Blair, ‘Chávez Running Out of Time as Allies Desert him’, Daily Telegraph, 30 June 2008.

Tamara Pearson, ‘Venezuelan President Says OAS General Secretary Distorts Army Head's Words on 2012 Elections’, 12 November 2010, http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/5781; Daniel Cancel, ‘Chavez Promotes Venezuela General Criticized for Threat Against Opposition’, 11 November 2010, Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/201011-12/chavez-promotes-venezuelageneral-criticized-for-threat-againstopposition.html.

‘The Bolivarian Patient’, Economist, 7 July 2011, www.economist.com/node/18928536.

Clare Ribando Seelke, ‘Ecuador: Political and Economic Situation and US Relations’, Congressional Research Service, Order Code RS21687, updated 21 May 2008; Arthur Brice, ‘Arrest Warrant Derails Colombia–Ecuador Talks’, CNN.com, 17 October 2009.

Adriaan Alsema, ‘Colombia Thanks Ecuador for Military Assistance, Ecuador Denies Help’, Colombia Reports, 20 September 2010, http://colombiareports.com/colombia-news/news/11930-colombia-thanks-ecuadorfor-military-assistance-ecuadordenies-help.html.

Pablo Celi, ‘Ecuador: Redefiniciones Políticas, Ajustes Institucionales y Proyección Regional’, Atlas Comparativo de la Defensa en América Latina 2010 (Buenos Aires: RESDAL, 2010), p. 200; ‘Colombia/Ecuador Re-establish Trade Relations After 21 Months’, MercoPress, 25 November 2009, http://en.mercopress.com/2009/11/24/colombia-ecuador-re-establish-traderelations-after-21-months.

IISS, The FARC Files.

‘ARMY, Ecuador’, Jane's Sentinel Security Assessment – South America, 30 November 2007, http://www.janes.com/articles/indepth/sams.html.

Figures are in US dollars. The Military Balance 2011 (London: Routledge for the IISS, 2011), p. 371.

Celi, ‘Ecuador: Redefiniciones Políticas’, p. 201.

See The Military Balance 2011, pp. 353–4, 366–8, 371–3; and The Military Balance 2012, pp. 381–4 and 387–9.

‘Colombia, Ecuador Drop Plans to Restore Diplomatic Ties’, AFP, 24 June 2008, http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5guoiEMNxBwKOHu4QW_dCQArUaAnA.

Brice, ‘Arrest Warrant Derails Colombia–Ecuador Talks’.

‘Colombia's Borders: The Weak Link In Uribe's Security Policy’, Latin America Report, no. 9, Quito and Brussels: International Crisis Group, 23 September 2004.

Marcella, War Without Borders; IISS, The FARC Files.

Marcella, War Without Borders, p. 5.

‘Steady Numbers for President Correa in Ecuador’, Angus Reid Global Monitor: Polls & Research, 27 February 2008, http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/steady_numbers_for_president_correa_in_ecuador/; ‘Ecuador Disappointed with Constituent Assembly’, Angus Reid Global Monitor: Polls & Research, 20 February 2008, http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/ecuador_disappointed_with_constituent_assembly/.

Marcella, War Without Borders, p. 33.

‘Cheetahs and Mirage 50s for Ecuador’, Defense Industry Daily, 14 December 2010, http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/Cheetahsand-Mirage-50s-for-Ecudaor-05832/; http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/ecuador-looks-to-trim-supertucano-purchase-342724/; The Military Balance 2012, p. 387.

‘ICJ Rules on Costa Rica–Nicaragua River Dispute’, International Boundary Research Unit, Durham University, 13 July 2009, available at http://www.dur.ac.uk/ibru/resources/newsarchive/search_results/.

Nicky Pear and Alexandra Reed, ‘Dredging Up an Old Issue: An Analysis of the Long-Standing Dispute between Costa Rica and Nicaragua over the San Juan River’, Council on Hemispheric Affairs, 24 January 2011, http://www.coha.org/dredging-upan-old-issue-an-analysis-of-the-longstanding-dispute-between-costa-ricaand-nicaragua-over-the-san-juanriver-2/.

Isla Celros itself is undisputed Costa Rican territory.

Confidential interviews with Costa Rican scholars at FLACSO General Secretariat, San Jose, Costa Rica, 11 April 2011.

‘Troop Pull-Out Urged In Nicaragua– Costa Rica Border Row’, BBC News, 14 November 2010, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latinamerica-11751727; Pear and Reed, ‘Dredging Up an Old Issue’; Alex Sanchez, ‘Costa Rica: An Army-less Nation in a Problem-Prone Region’, Council on Hemispheric Affairs, 2 June 2011, http://www.coha.org/costa-ricaan-army-less-nation-in-a-problemprone-region/; ‘Costa Rica Bets On Stiffer Border Security As It Waits For ICJ Measures To Start Normalizing’, NotiCen, Central American & Caribbean Affairs, Latin American Database, 7 April 2011.

Confidential interviews with Costa Rican scholars at FLACSO General Secretariat, 11 April 2011, San Jose, Costa Rica

Ibid.

Marianela Jimenez, ‘Costa Rica Denounces Alleged Nicaraguan Incursion’, Associated Press, 2 November 2010, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/02/AR2010110203621.html.

Ibid.

Esteban Oviedo, ‘Canciller Dice Que Managua Permite A Civiles Violar La Zona Restringida’, El Pais, 25 June 2011, http://www.nacion.com/2011-0625/ElPais/pais-denuncia--a-nicaraguapor-alentar-incursiones-a-isla-calero.aspx.

Michael Brecher and Jonathan Wilkenfeld, A study of crisis (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 1997) pp. 134–5.

‘Costa Rica’, Camopaedia.org, http://camopedia.org/index.php?title=Costa_Rica.

The Military Balance 2011, p. 368.

‘Debutó la Policía de Fronteras de Costa Rica’, infobae.com, 31 March 2011, http://america.infobae.com/notas/22029-La-Policia-de-FronterasdeCosta-Ricadebuto-con-lamovilizacion-de-153-agentes.

A Comparative Atlas of Defence in Latin America and the Caribbean 2010, chapter 22, ‘Nicaragua’, RESDAL, pp. 255, 259, http://www.resdal.org/atlas/atlas10ing-22-nicaragua.pdf; The Military Balance 2012, p. 397.

Military Balance 2011, p. 381.

Pear and Read, ‘Dredging Up an Old Issue’.

Dovelyn Agunias, ‘Remittance Trends in Central America’, Migration Information Source, April 2006, http://www.migrationinformation.org/USfocus/display.cfm?ID=393.

Ricardo Monge-González, Oswald Céspedes-Torres and Juan Carlos Vargas-Aguilar, South–South Remittances: Importance of the Costa Rica–Nicaragua Corridor (San Jose: Academia de Centroamérica, 2009) pp, 5–7, 21.

Pear and Read, ‘Dredging Up an Old Issue’.

Department of State, ‘Background Note: Nicaragua’, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/1850.htm; Gisella Canales Ewest, ‘Ticos Buscan Vender Mas en Nicaragua’, La Prensa.com. ni, 1 July 2010, http://www.laprensa.com.ni/2010/07/01/economia/29868#. Tk6jpF1vDrc.

Sanchez, ‘Costa Rica: An Army-less Nation in a Problem-Prone Region’.

Sanchez, ‘Costa Rica’; ‘Debutó la Policía’, infobae.com; ‘Costa Rica Sends New Police Unit to Border’, TicoTimes, 31 March 2011, http://www.ticotimes.net/Current-Edition/News-Briefs/Costa-Rica-sends-newpolice-unit-to-border_ThursdayMarch-31-2011.

Sanchez, ‘Costa Rica’.

Carlos Arroyo Borgen, ‘From Guerrilla to Institutional Consolidation: the Special Evolution of the Nicaraguan Army’, in A Comparative Atlas of Defence in Latin America and the Caribbean 2010, RESDAL, p. 263, citing M&R Consultores, ‘Nicaragua, Sistema de Monitoreo de la Opinión Pública (SISMO) Edición XXV Junio 2010’, http://www.myrconsultores.com/page/estudios.html.

Pear and Read, ‘Dredging Up an Old Issue’.

‘Blunders Force Tijerino From Seguridad’, Insidecostarica. com, 26 April 2011, http://www.insidecostarica.com/dailynews/2011/april/26/costarica11042501.htm.

Pear and Read, ‘Dredging Up an Old Issue’.

For an insightful discussion of Ortega, see Hannah Stone, ‘The Many Political Faces of Daniel Ortega’, Council on Hemispheric Affairs, 21 December 2011, http://www.coha.org/the-manypolitical-faces-of-daniel-ortega/.

‘Arranca Nueva Legislatura en Costa Rica’, TodaNoticia.com, 1 May 2010 http://www.todanoticia.com/12089/arranca-nueva-legislatura-costa-rica/.

Peter Amsel, ‘Costa Rica Shelves Tax Plan for Land-based Casino and Online Gaming Operators’, CalvinAyre.com, 30 March 2011, http://calvinayre.com/2011/03/30/business/costa-rica-shelves-gambling-tax-plan/.

In 1976–77 Peru mobilised its military forces to the border to dissuade an apparent deal between Chile and Bolivia, in which a territorial exchange would be made to cede former Peruvian territory to Bolivia in exchange for Bolivian territory in the south. The deal collapsed, but only as a result of the fear of war breaking out if it were consummated.

República del Bolivia, Constitución de 2009, Article 267, http://pdba.georgetown.edu/Constitutions/Bolivia/bolivia09.html; Karin Ebensperger, ‘Bolivia otra vez’, El Mercurio, 5 April 2011, available via Universidad Andrés Bello, http://blog.unab.cl/defensa/2011/04/06/bolivia-otra-vez-columna-de-karinebensperger-el-mercurio-5-deabril-de-2011/.

Julie McCarthy, ‘Bachelet Takes Oath as Chile's President’, National Public Radio, 11 March 2006.

‘Autoridades de ambos países coincidirán en Mercosur y luego en CELAC: Chile y Bolivia se reencuentran en citas cumbres tras tensas semanas’, El Mercurio, 27 June 2011, http://diario.elmercurio.com/detalle/index.asp?id={32f7156b-a74e4cd5-a721-3e6c3beb5d1a.

Jeanna Cullinan, ‘Chile Plans to Crack Down on Trafficking Over Bolivia Border’, InSight, 5 October 2011, http://www.insightcrime.org/insight-latestnews/item/1660-chile-plans-to-crackdown-on-trafficking-over-boliviaborder.

Rick DelVecchio, ‘Haitian Migrants Face Violence in the Dominican Republic’, Catholic San Francisco, 4 December 2009.

Latinobarómetro 2010, p. 36.

‘Half of Argentines Believe Malvinas Conflict “Will Never Be Solved”, Shows Poll’, MercoPress, 4 April 2012.

‘Mrs. Kirchner Calls UN to Force UK to Falklands’ Sovereignty Negotiations', MercoPress.com, 17 February 2010, http://en.mercopress.com/2010/02/17/mrs.-kirchner-calls-un-to-force-uk-tofalklands-sovereignty-negotiations; ‘Argentine Protests Falklands Oil Drilling before the Rio Group and UN’, MercoPress.com, 18 February 2010, http://en.mercopress.com/2010/02/18/argentine-protests-falklands-oildrilling-before-the-rio-group-and-un.

‘Argentine Protests Falklands Oil Drilling before the Rio Group and UN’.

‘Cristina Fernandez Abandons Summit with No Declaration on Falklands/Malvinas’, MercoPress, 15 April 2012.

‘UK Committed to Falklands in Spite of all the “Huff and Puff” from Argentine Politicians’.

The Argentine Constitution of 1994 stipulates that the Malvinas, South Georgia and South Sandwich Islands are national territory and will be regained according to the principles of international law. See Political Database of the Americas, http://pdba.georgetown.edu/Constitutions/Argentina/argen94_e.html.