Libya: From Euphoria to Breakdown

Abstract

The 2011 Arab uprisings began in North Africa and toppled the leaders of Tunisia and Libya, but the forces that wreaked this profound change also touched their fellow Maghreb states of Algeria and Morocco. This Adelphi book examines how the politics, security and economies – which were largely stable for decades prior to 2011 – have changed in the four states. It asks why the popular revolutions in Tunisia and Libya did not spread to Algeria and Morocco; how the revolutionary states have fared since 2011; why Libya descended into a deadly civil war while the others did not; and whether the sitting governments in Algeria and Morocco have applied sustainable strategies to address the new political climate.

The book includes chapters on each of the four core Maghreb states, together with regional assessments of the jihadist threat and economic challenges. It analyses the tension between security and political reform, and argues that without persistent and comprehensive development of government institutions focused on creating jobs and providing security, the region risks future protests, terrorism or even revolution – a lesson that states throughout the Middle East should take to heart.

Notes

1 Interview with police officer Abdullah Salem Shoma, Tripoli, June 2014.

2 For a video clip of the incident, see ‘Martyrs Square, Tripoli, Libya, 6 June 2014’, http://bit.ly/MartyrSquare.

3 Data compiled by Libya Body Count based on news reports; see http://www.libyabodycount.org.

4 Heba Saleh, ‘Libya burns through foreign reserves to plug payments deficit’, Financial Times, 11 Decem- ber 2014.

5 Mark Hosenball, ‘U.S. fears Islamic State is making serious inroads in Libya’,Reuters, 20 March 2015.

6 Borzou Daragahi, ‘Libya's chaos allows migrant numbers to surge’, Financial Times, 20 April 2015.

7 Interview with Husni Bey Husni, Tripoli, July 2012.

8 Interview with Saleh Merghani, Tripoli, June 2014.

9 Interview with Ousama Otman- Assed, Tripoli, June 2014.

10 Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood has, in fact, few if any links to extremist, violent groups while ties between Libya's Brotherhood and jihadist groups are easily discernible.

11 Borzou Daragahi, ‘Aircraft and artil- lery attack Islamist militias in Beng- hazi’, Financial Times, 16 May 2014.

12 Mohamed Eljarh, ‘Libya's Islamists Go for Broke’, Foreign Policy, 22 July 2014; Caroline Abadeer, ‘Libya's Election Results Announced’, Muftah.org, 27 July 2014.

13 Borzou Daragahi, ‘Hero of Libya's revolution wages war on government’, Financial Times, 25 August 2014.

14 Interview with Hammouda Siala, Tripoli, June 2014.

15 Libya Al Ahrar TV, 4 August 2014.

16 Interview with Ali Sallabi, Tripoli, Libya, June 2014.

17 Interview with Hamed Mohamed, Libya, June 2014.

18 David D. Kirkpatrick and Eric Schmitt, ‘Arab Nations Strike in Libya, Surprising U.S.’, New York Times, 25 August 2014, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/26/world/africa/egypt-and-united-arab-emirates-said-to-have-secretly-carried-out-libya-airstrikes.html?_r=0.

19 See ‘Final report of the Panel of Experts submitted pursuant to resolution 1973 (2011)’, submitted to the UN Security Council, 23 February 2015, pp. 36–43.

20 Chris Stephen, ‘Libya Accuses Khartoum of Flying Weapons to Islamist Rebels in Tripoli’, Guardian, 7 September 2014, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/07/libya-khartoum-weapons-islamist-rebels; ‘Libyan PM says Qatar sent arms to opposition’, Al Jazeera, 15 September 2014, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/09/libyan-pm-says-qatar-sent-arms-opposition-20149158050556226.html. See also, ‘Final report of the Panel of Experts submitted pursuant to resolution 1973 (2011)’, submitted to the UN Security Council, 23 February 2015, pp. 43–5.

21 Interview with Western diplomat in Tripoli, June 2014.

22 Interview with Ibrahim Madani, Tripoli, June 2014.

23 Interview with Ali Sallabi, Tripoli, June 2014.

24 Human Rights Watch, ‘Libya: Evidence of New Cluster Bomb Use’, 15 March 2015; Human Rights Watch, ‘Libya/Egypt: Civilian Toll in Derna Air Strikes’, 24 February 2015.

25 ‘Final report of the Panel of Experts submitted pursuant to resolution 1973 (2011)’, submitted to the UN Security Council, 23 February 2015, p. 15.

26 Interview with Saleh Merghani, Tripoli, June 2014.

27 Names of Government of National Accord Proposed: Excerpts from SRSG Bernardino Leon's Press Conference in Skhirat, Morocco, 8 October 2015 http://unsmil.unmissions.org/Default.aspx?tabid=3543&ctl=Details&mid=6187&ItemID=2099277&language=en-US

28 Randa Takieddine, ‘Former UN envoy: Libya held its elections too soon’, Al Monitor, 12 October 2014.

29 Podcast interview with Zaid al-Ali, ‘FT News special: What went wrong with the Arab Spring?’, 26 January 2015.

30 Ahmed Elumami and Ulf Laessing, ‘Gunmen loyal to ex-general storm Libyan parliament, demand suspension’, Reuters, 18 May 2014.

31 Borzou Daragahi, ‘Government- aligned militia adds to Libya's political turmoil’, Financial Times, 25 July 2014.

32 Interview with Saleh Merghani, Tripoli, June 2014.

33 Bourzou Daragahi, ‘Libya pays the price for its post-Gaddafi mistakes’, Financial Times, 17 March 2014.

34 Interview with Lt.-Col. Ahmed Ali, Joint Cooperation Force, Tripoli, June 2014.