The end of the affair

Abstract

A major shift in the paradigm undergirding relations between Australia and China has become clear in the early 2020s, with geopolitical concerns trumping economic considerations. Canberra has implemented a range of new policies in response to the risks it perceives in Australia’s economic relations with China, the Chinese Communist Party’s efforts to exert political influence in Australia, the expanding capabilities and presence of the People’s Liberation Army, and Beijing’s economic and diplomatic gains in Southeast Asia and the Southwest Pacific. China’s policies towards Australia have become more coercive in economic as well as diplomatic terms. However, Australia has withstood Beijing’s punitive trade measures without suffering significant economic damage. China’s more assertive regional posture has prompted far-reaching changes to Australia’s defence- and alliance-policy settings, including new capability acquisitions and strategic initiatives such as AUKUS. In this Adelphi book, Euan Graham argues that Australia has provided an imperfect but nevertheless useful exemplar of how governments may respond effectively to multifarious security challenges from China. In particular, the Australian case shows how measures to address domestic vulnerabilities may serve as the foundation for a successful China policy at the international level.

Notes

1 Defined for the purpose of this book as Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Timor-Leste and Vietnam. Cambodia, Myanmar and Thailand can be considered partly maritime from a geographical standpoint, although they are predominantly continental countries.

2 Defined for the purpose of this book as the Pacific islands east of Australia: American Samoa, Cook Islands, Fiji, French Polynesia, Kiribati, Nauru, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, and Wallis and Futuna Islands. This should not be confused with the broader, Allied definition of ‘Southwest Pacific’ used during the Second World War.

3 Geoffrey Blainey, The Tyranny of Distance: How Distance Shaped Australia’s History (Melbourne: Sun Books, 1966), p. 24.

4 For two official views, see Australian Government, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, ‘2017 Foreign Policy White Paper’, November 2017, https://www.dfat.gov.au/sites/default/files/2017-foreign-policy-white-paper.pdf; and Australian Government, Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, ‘Australia in the Asian Century White Paper’, October 2012, https://apo.org.au/node/31647.

5 Graeme Dobell, Australia Finds Home: The Choices and Chances of an Asia Pacific Journey (Sydney: ABC Books, 2000), pp. 1–15.

6 Donald Horne, The Lucky Country: Australia in the Sixties (Sydney: Angus and Robertson, 1964), p. 98.

7 Australian Government, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, ‘Australia’s Trade in Goods and Services 2021–22’, https://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/trade-and-investment-data-information-and-publications/trade-statistics/trade-in-goods-and-services/australias-trade-goods-and-services-2021–22.

8 John Fitzgerald, ‘Old Hu’s “Gum” Attack on Australia a Clear Sign of China’s Global Mindset’, Crikey, 1 May 2020, https://www.crikey.com.au/2020/05/01/old-hus-gum-attack-on-australia-a-clear-sign-of-chinas-global-mindset/.

9 As detailed in Chapter Two; Jonathan Kearsley, ‘“There It Was, China’s List of Grievances”: How 9News Got the Dossier at the Heart of the Latest Diplomatic Scuffle Between Canberra and Beijing’, Nine News, 23 November 2020, https://www.9news.com.au/national/china-dossier-canberra-beijing-diplomatic-tensions-how-jonathan-kearsley-broke-the-story/216a985d-3289-4988-8781-e6dc479f0d74.

10 Richard Maude, ‘Looking Ahead: Australia and China After the Pandemic’, Asia Society, 13 May 2020, https://asiasociety.org/australia/looking-ahead-australia-and-china-after-pandemic.

11 Allan Gyngell, Fear of Abandonment: Australia in the World Since 1942 (Melbourne: La Trobe University Press, 2017), pp. 169–71.

12 Ibid., pp. 287–90.

13 Mark Harrison, ‘Saying the Unsayable in Australia’s Relations with China’, Lowy Institute Interpreter, 15 December 2017, https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/saying-unsayable-australia-s-relations-china.

14 Thomas Wilkins, ‘Averting a Sino-American Conflict: A Review of Kevin Rudd’s The Avoidable War’, Sasakawa Peace Foundation, August 2022, https://www.spf.org/iina/en/articles/thomas_06.html.

15 Harrison, ‘Saying the Unsayable in Australia’s Relations with China’.

16 Australian Government, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, ‘China– Australia Free Trade Agreement’, https://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/in-force/chafta/Pages/australia-china-fta.

17 Philip Dorling and Richard Baker, ‘China’s Fury at Defence Paper’, Sydney Morning Herald, 10 December 2010, https://www.smh.com.au/national/chinas-fury-at-defence-paper-20101209-18rel.html.

18 ‘Stern Hu Release: Here’s Why the Former Mining Executive Was Convicted in China’, ABC News, 4 July 2018, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-04/stern-hu-explainer-why-china-jailed-the-former-mining-executive/9936578.

19 John Fitzgerald, ‘Australia–China Relations and the Trump Factor’, Inside Story, 14 October 2020, https://insidestory.org.au/australia-china-relations-and-the-trump-factor/.

20 John Garnaut, ‘“Fear and Greed” Drive Australia’s China Policy, Tony Abbott Tells Angela Merkel’, Sydney Morning Herald, 16 April 2015, https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fear-and-greed-drive-australias-china-policy-tony-abbott-tells-angela-merkel-20150416-1mmdty.html.

21 Angus Grigg and Lisa Murray, ‘Malcolm Turnbull Under Increasing Pressure to Be Firm with China’, Australian Financial Review, 3 September 2016, https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/malcolm-turnbull-under-increasing-pressure-to-be-firm-with-china-20160831-gr5rr7.

22 Angus Grigg and Lisa Murray, ‘Malcolm Turnbull Calls China a “Frenemy”, Toughens Stance Towards Beijing’, Australian Financial Review, 16 June 2017, https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/malcolm-turnbull-calls-china-a-frenemy-toughens-stance-towards-beijing-20170615-gwrnsp.

23 Stephen Dziedzic and Andrew Greene, ‘US Official Urges Australia to Participate in South China Sea Freedom of Navigation Operations’, ABC News, 27 July 2020, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-27/australia-pressured-to-participate-in-south-china-sea-operation/12496326; and David Wroe, ‘US to Fly F-22 Raptors In and Out of Australia amid South China Sea tensions’, Sydney Morning Herald, 14 December 2016, https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/us-to-fly-f22-raptors-in-and-out-of-australia-amid-south-china-sea-tensions-20161214-gtb2uh.html.

24 Peter Hartcher, ‘Red Flag: Waking Up to China’s Challenge’, Quarterly Essay, no. 76, November 2019, p. 31.

25 John Garnaut, ‘How China Interferes in Australia and How Democracies Can Push Back’, Foreign Affairs, 9 March 2018, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2018-03-09/how-china-interferes-australia.

26 Christopher Knaus and Tom Phillips, ‘Turnbull Says Australia Will “Stand Up” to China as Foreign Influence Row Heats Up’, Guardian, 9 December 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/dec/09/china-says-turnbulls-remarks-have-poisoned-the-atmosphere-of-relations.

27 Australian Government, Attorney-General’s Department, ‘Foreign Influence Transparency Scheme’, https://www.ag.gov.au/integrity/foreign-influence-transparency-scheme.

28 Saheli Roy Choudhury, ‘Former Australian PM Turnbull Explains Why His Government Banned Huawei, ZTE from Selling 5G Equipment’, CNBC, 28 March 2019, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/28/malcolm-turnbull-on-australias-decision-to-ban-chinas-huawei-and-zte.html.

29 Malcolm Turnbull, A Bigger Picture (Melbourne: Hardie Grant Books, 2020), p. 423.

30 Bob Carr, ‘If Australia Listened to Our Hawks on China, We’d Have Been Hung Out to Dry’, Sydney Morning Herald, 24 May 2017, https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/if-australia-listened-to-our-hawks-on-china-wed-have-been-hung-out-to-dry-20170523-gwaw1w.html.

31 Fitzgerald, ‘Australia–China Relations and the Trump Factor’.

32 Gareth Evans, ‘Australia and China: Getting Out of the Hole’, Pearls and Irritations, 27 November 2020, https://johnmenadue.com/australia-and-china-getting-out-of-the-hole/.

33 Farz Edraki, ‘Spy Chief Nick Warner on the Security Threats Facing Australia, from Terrorism to North Korea’, ABC News, 6 April 2019, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-06/australia-spy-chief-nick-warner-biggest-threats-to-the-nation/10974214.

34 Hartcher, ‘Red Flag: Waking Up to China’s Challenge’, p. 34.