India–Pakistan, 2019

Abstract

Narratives provide the storylines of conflict and in doing so become an arena of conflict themselves. When states mount information campaigns against each other, they are trying to change the narrative. The digital platforms of the new information environment have been identified by various analysts as a significant factor in contemporary strategy and crisis management. But while social media is noisier and more chaotic than traditional media, and unprecedented in its immediacy and accessibility, has it thus far been a game changer in strategic affairs?

In this Adelphi book, Sir Lawrence Freedman and Heather Williams examine the impact of state-led digital information - or disinformation - campaigns in four contexts: the India-Pakistan crisis over Kashmir in 2019; the heightened tensions between the United States and Iran following the assassination of Qasem Soleimani in 2020; China's messaging in response to the COVID-19 pandemic from 2020–22; and the Russia-Ukraine crisis from 2013–23. While noting the meaningful consequences of digital information campaigns, in each case the authors call for a sense of perspective. Such campaigns are only one aspect of wider political struggles. They are also difficult for their initiators to control, and less likely to influence foreign audiences than domestic ones. Overall, the authors argue, there is little evidence so far to suggest such campaigns will have as much influence over contemporary crises as the classical instruments of military and economic power.

Notes

1 Vipin Narang and Heather Williams, ‘Thermonuclear Twitter?’, in Vipin Narang and Scott Sagan (eds), The Fragile Balance of Terror: Deterrence in the New Nuclear Age (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2022), pp. 63–89, https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7591/j.ctv310vm0j. See also Kunal Purohit, ‘After Pulwama Terror Attack, WhatsApp Groups Are Fuelling Hypernationalism, Hatred and Warmongering’, Firstpost, 16 February 2019, https://www.firstpost.com/india/after-pulwama-attack-whatsapp-groups-are-fuelling-hypernationalism-hatred-and-war-mongering-6099461.html.

2 Rifat Fareed, ‘Fear Grips Kashmiris Living in India After Deadly Suicide Attack’, Al-Jazeera, 16 February 2019, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/2/16/fear-grips-kashmiris-living-in-india-after-deadly-suicide-attack.

3 Cat Zakrzewski et al., ‘Facebook Under Fire: How Facebook Neglected the Rest of the World, Fueling Hate Speech and Violence in India’, Washington Post, 24 October 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/10/24/india-facebook-misinformation-hate-speech/.

4 ‘Kashmir: Why India and Pakistan Fight Over It’, BBC News, 8 August 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/10537286.

5 See, for example, Patricia Lewis et al., ‘Too Close for Comfort: Cases of Near Nuclear Use and Options for Policy’, Chatham House, 28 April 2014, https://www.chathamhouse.org/2014/04/too-close-comfort-cases-near-nuclear-use-and-options-policy.

6 Ashley J. Tellis, C. Christine Fair and Jamison Jo Medby, Limited Conflicts Under the Nuclear Umbrella: Indian and Pakistani Lessons from the Kargil Crisis (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2002), https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA400858.pdf.

7 See, for example, Benjamin S. Lambeth, ‘Airport in India’s 1999 Kargil War’, Journal of Strategic Studies, vol. 35, no. 3, 14 May 2012, pp. 289–316, https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2012.665350.

8 Mark S. Bell and Julia Macdonald, ‘How Dangerous Was Kargil? Nuclear Crises in Comparative Perspective’, Washington Quarterly, vol. 42, no. 2, June 2019, pp. 135–48, https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2019.1626691.

9 Michael Krepon, ‘The Stability-Instability Paradox, Misperception, and Escalation Control in South Asia’, Asia Dialogue, January 2003, p. 2, https://theasiadialogue.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/stability-instability-paradox-south-asia.pdf.

10 Sandhya Keelery, ‘Social Media Usage in India – Statistics and Facts’, Statista, 22 September 2022, https://www.statista.com/topics/5113/social-media-usage-in-india; and Sandhya Keelery, ‘Number of Social Media Users Across India as of February 2021, by Platform’, Statista, 29 April 2021, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1232311/india-number-of-social-media-users-by-platform.

11 J. Degenhard, ‘Forecast of the Number of Facebook Users in India from 2018 to 2027’, Statista, 1 June 2021, https://www.statista.com/forecasts/1136430/facebook-users-in-india.

12 Simpon Kemp, ‘Digital 2021: Pakistan’, Datareportal, 11 February 2021, https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2021-pakistan.

13 Dan Washburn, ‘Interview: How Social Media Helped Imran Khan Dominate Our Year-end Poll’, Asia Society, 22 January 2013, https://asiasociety.org/blog/asia/interview-how-social-media-helped-imran-khan-dominate-our-year-end-poll.

14 Omer Farooq Khan, ‘Pakistan NSA Blames Indian, Afghan Social Media Accounts for Anti-Pakistan Propaganda’, Times of India, 12 August 2021, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/pakistan-nsa-blames-indian-afghan-social-media-accounts-for-anti-pakistan-propaganda/articleshow/85254691.cms.

15 Gary Machado Alexandre Alaphilippe, Roman Adamczyk and Antoine Grégoire, ‘Indian Chronicles: Deep Dive into a 15-year Operation Targeting the EU and UN to Serve Indian Interests’, EU Disinfo Lab, 9 December 2020, https://www.disinfo.eu/publications/indian-chronicles-deep-dive-into-a-15-year-operation-targeting-the-eu-and-un-to-serve-indian-interests.

16 Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury, ‘India Calls Out Pakistan for Motivated False Propaganda on Social Media’, Economic Times, 2 September 2020, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/internet/india-calls-out-pakistan-for-motivated-false-propaganda-on-social-media/articleshow/77881857. cms?from=mdr; and Riana Pfefferkorn, ‘New Intermediary Rules Jeopardize the Security of Indian Internet Users’, Stanford University Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies blog, 3 March 2021, https://fsi.stanford.edu/news/new-intermediary-rules-jeopardize-security-indian-internet-users.

17 Arjun Sidharth, ‘Photo of Slain Terrorist Circulated by Indian Media Was Made Using an App’, The Wire, 18 February 2019, https://thewire.in/media/photo-of-slain-terrorist-circulated-by-indian-media-is-made-using-an-app.

18 Narendra Modi (@narendramodi), tweet, 14 February 2019, https://twitter.com/narendramodi/status/1096035566670565376.

19 Narendra Modi (@narendramodi), tweet, 16 February 2019, https://twitter.com/narendramodi/status/1096755533070004226.

20 Nitin Gadkari (@nitin_gadkari), tweet, 21 February 2019, https://twitter.com/nitin_gadkari/status/1098567044574916608?lang=en.

21 Ganesh Kumar, ‘Pakistan Govt Spokesperson Mohammad Faisal’s Personal Twitter Account Suspended’, India Today, 20 February 2019, https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/dr-mohammed-faisal-twitter-account-suspended-pakistan-1460292-2019-02-20.

22 ‘Twitter Suspends Personal Account of Pakistan FO Spokesman over India’s Complaints’, Times of India, 20 February 2019, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/twitter-suspends-personal-account-of-pakistan-fo-spokesman-over-indias-complaints/articleshow/68084550.cms.

23 Subramanian Swamy (@swamy39), tweet, 15 February 2019, https://twitter.com/Swamy39/status/1096250327228170241.

24 ‘Narendra Modi’s Posers on Terrorism Return to Embarrass the Prime Minister’, National Herald, 17 February 2019, https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/india/narendra-modis-posers-on-terrorism-return-to-embarrass-the-prime-minister.

25 As quoted in ‘Kashmir Tensions Rife as Saudi Crown Prince Visits Pakistan, India’, France24, 18 February 2019, https://www.france24.com/en/20190218-kashmir-pakistan-india-saudi-crown-prince-mbs-khashoggi-modi.

26 Ankit Panda, ‘India Trip Comes amid High Regional Tensions’, Diplomat, 19 February 2019, https://thediplomat.com/2019/02/saudi-crown-princes-pakistan-india-trips-come-amid-high-regional-tensions/.

Pakistan–Saudi relations would later deteriorate over how to handle Kashmir; in 2020 Pakistan was forced to repay US$1bn of a US$2bn Saudi loan because of the issue. See Adnana Aamir, ‘Saudi Arabia Pulls Support for Pakistan as Kashmir Tiff Widens’, Nikkei Asia, 10 August 2020, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Saudi-Arabia-pulls-support-for-Pakistan-as-Kashmir-tiff-widens.

27 ‘Pulwama Attack: Guwahati College Professor Receives Threats over FB Post; Suspended by Authorities’, National Herald, 17 February 2019, https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/national/pulwama-terror-attack-guwahati-college-professor-receives-threats-over-fb-post-suspended-by-authorities.

28 Joanna Slater, ‘“I Have Never Felt So Insecure”: Kashmiris Face Backlash After Unprecedented Attack’, Washington Post, 19 February 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/i-have-never-felt-so-insecure-kashmiris-face-backlash-after-unprecedented-attack/2019/02/19/4d0be2e4-3452-11e9-946a-115a5932c45b_story.html. In another incident, four Kashmiri students claimed they had to go into hiding after being suspended from their university and threatened online: Nishita Jha, ‘These Women Are Living in Fear After Their College Suspended Them over WhatsApp Message’, Buzzfeed, 18 February 2019, https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nishitajha/kashmir-attack-whatsapp-students-suspended.

29 Official Account of CRPF (@crpfindia), tweet, 17 February 2019, https://twitter.com/crpfindia/status/1097073158551674881.

30 Mridula Chari et al., ‘Clean the Nation: Inside the Facebook Group That Plotted to Get “Anti-nationals” Sacked, Prosecuted’, Scroll.in, 19 February 2019, https://scroll.in/article/913666/clean-the-nation-inside-the-facebook-group-plotting-to-get-anti-nationals-sacked-and-prosecuted.

31 ‘RSS Wing Awards Facebook Group That Targeted “Anti-nationals” Post Pulwama’, The Wire, 3 July 2019, https://thewire.in/media/clean-the-nation-facebook-rss-anti-national.

32 Michael Safi, ‘“WhatsApp Murders”: India Struggles to Combat Crimes Linked to Messaging Service’, Guardian, 3 July 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/03/whatsapp-murders-india-struggles-to-combat-crimes-linked-to-messaging-service.

33 Spokesperson Pakistan Armed Forces (@OfficialDGISPR), tweet, 25 February 2019, https://twitter.com/OfficialDGISPR/status/1100207947022565377?lang=en.

34 Mosharraf Zaidi (@mosharrafzaidi), tweet, 26 February 2019, https://twitter.com/mosharrafzaidi/status/1100229684107898881.

35 Kanchan Gupta (@kanchangupta), tweet, 26 February 2019, https://twitter.com/KanchanGupta/status/1100301307296940032. The Beatles reference could be connected with a song using the melody of ‘Let It Be’ that featured in a Congress Party video in 2018, calling on Modi to unfollow trolls who were harassing women on social media. See ‘Congress Uses Beatles’ Iconic Song to Ask PM Modi to Unfollow Trolls’, Statesman, 30 June 2018, https://www.thestatesman.com/india/congress-uses-beatles-iconic-song-to-ask-pm-modi-to-unfollow-trolls-1502655573.html.

36 Narang and Williams, ‘Thermonuclear Twitter?’.

37 Jeffrey Lewis, ‘“Night of Murder”: On the Brink of Nuclear War in South Asia’, NTI, 6 November 2019, https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/night-murder-brink-nuclear-war-south-asia/.

38 ‘India Election Results 2019: Modi Secures Landslide Win’, BBC News, 23 May 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-48347081.

39 ‘Social Media Giants Accused of “Silencing” Kashmir Voices’, Al-Jazeera, 1 October 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/1/kashmir-report-accuses-us-social-media-giants-of-censorship.

40 Philippa Williams and Lipika Kamra, ‘India’s WhatsApp Election: Political Parties Risk Undermining Democracy with Technology’, The Conversation, 28 February 2019, https://theconversation.com/indias-whatsapp-election-political-parties-risk-undermining-democracy-with-technology-111699.

41 Kuma Ultam, ‘For PM Modi’s 2019 Campaign, BJP Readies Its WhatsApp Plan’, Hindustan Times, 29 September 2019, https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/bjp-plans-a-whatsapp-campaign-for-2019-lok-sabha-election/story-lHQBYbxwXHaChc7Akk6hcI.html.

42 Christophe Jaffrelot, ‘The BJP’s 2019 Election Campaign: Not Business as Usual’, Contemporary South Asia, vol. 28, no. 2, 2020, pp. 155–77, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09584935.2020.1765985.

43 Dexter Filkins, ‘Blood and Soil in Narendra Modi’s India’, New Yorker, 9 December 2019, pp. 1–31.

44 Krepon, ‘The Stability-Instability Paradox, Misperception, and Escalation Control in South Asia’, p. 13.

45 Jeffrey Lewis, ‘Bum Dope, Blowback, and the Bomb: The Effect of Bad Information on Policy-maker Beliefs and Crisis Stability’, in Harold A. Trinkunas, Herbert Lin and Benjamin Loehrke (eds), Three Tweets to Midnight: Effects of the Global Information Ecosystem on the Risk of Nuclear Conflict (Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press, 2020), pp. 159–78. Lewis acknowledges that the ‘blowback effect’ is a term borrowed from Stephen van Evera, which describes ‘the phenomenon by which military propaganda, intended for the public at large, instead influences the views of political leaders’.

46 Jeffrey Michaels, The Discourse Trap and the US Military: From the War on Terror to the Surge (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2013).