The relationship between the armed forces and the state

Abstract

Outside Myanmar, the 2021 coup d’état has often been portrayed as the end of a hopeful period for the country. In this Adelphi book, however, Aaron Connelly and Shona Loong argue that the Aung San Suu Kyi government that preceded it was a false dawn, unlikely to fulfil the international community’s aspirations for a stable, peaceful and strong Myanmar. Instead, the movement opposing the 2021 coup holds much greater promise – despite the bloody conflict that dominates the news today.

Connelly and Loong survey three fundamental relationships that have shaped Myanmar before and after the coup – between the military and the state, between the majority Burmese and ethnic minorities, and between Myanmar and the world – to explain how opposition to the coup has shifted all of them in a more liberal, pluralist and cosmopolitan direction.

Notes

1 The term ‘Tatmadaw’, which translates literally to ‘Royal Army’, originates from pre-colonial Burma, when it referred to the army protecting the Burmese kingdom. However, this term has been hotly contested since the coup by those who argue that it glorifies the armed forces. Hence, since the coup, the Burmese word ‘sit-tat’, which simply means army, has often been used to refer to the Myanmar armed forces instead. We use ‘Tatmadaw’ throughout this book because it is the name these forces use for themselves and because it is better known abroad than ‘sit-tat’.

2 The British governed lowland areas – or ‘Burma Proper’ – separately from Burma’s highland ‘Frontier Areas’. This is discussed further in Chapter 2.

3 See M.P. Callahan, Making Enemies: War and State Building in Burma (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2003), p. 29.

4 Ibid., p. 27.

5 Andrew Selth, Burma’s Armed Forces: Power Without Glory (London: Eastbridge Books, 2002), p. 9.

6 There were 10,365 army troops in British Burma in 1938, of which 4,713 were British, approximately 3,000 were Indians, and nearly 3,000 were Karen, Chin and Kachin. See Callahan, Making Enemies: War and State Building in Burma, p. 26.

7 J.S. Furnivall, Colonial Policy and Practice: A Comparative Study of Burma and Netherlands India (New York: New York University Press, 1956), p. 184.

8 Thant Myint-U, The Hidden History of Burma: Race, Capitalism, and the Crisis of Democracy in the 21st Century (New York: W. W. Norton, 2000), p. 18.

9 In 1937, British Burma began to be administered separately from British India. See Callahan, Making Enemies: War and State Building in Burma, p. 35.

10 M.P. Callahan, ‘State Formation in the Shadow of the Raj: Violence, Warfare and Politics in Colonial Burma’, Japanese Journal of Southeast Asian Studies, vol. 39, no. 4, 2002, pp. 513–36.

11 Callahan, Making Enemies: War and State Building in Burma, pp. 39–40.

12 Ibid., p. 46.

13 Michael Clodfelter, Warfare and Armed Conflicts: A Statistical Reference to Casualty and Other Figures, 1500–2000 (Jefferson, NC: McFarland Publishing, 2002), p. 556.

14 Christopher Bayly and Tim Harper, Forgotten Wars: The End of Britain’s Asian Empire (London: Penguin, 2008), pp. 229–33.

15 Christopher Bayly and Tim Harper, Forgotten Armies: Britain’s Asian Empire and the War with Japan (London: Penguin, 2005), pp. 427–34; and Kyaw Phyo Tha, ‘No OK for NLD’s “Anti-Fascist Resistance Day” Celebration’, Irrawaddy, 26 March 2015, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/no-ok-for-nlds-anti-fascist-resistance-day-celebration.html.

16 Martin Smith, Burma: Insurgency and the Politics of Ethnicity (London: Zed Books, 1999), pp. 66–8.

17 Bayly and Harper, Forgotten Wars: The End of Britain’s Asian Empire, pp. 313–23.

18 Callahan, Making Enemies: War and State Building in Burma, pp. 119–23.

19 Ibid., p. 114.

20 Ibid., p. 135.

21 For more on the Tatmadaw campaign against Karen and communist insurgents, see Smith, Burma: Insurgency and the Politics of Ethnicity; and Bertil Lintner, The Rise and Fall of the Communist Party of Burma (CPB) (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1990).

22 Andrew Selth, ‘Myanmar’s Military Mindset: An Exploratory Survey’, Griffith Asia Institute, 2021, p. 33.

23 Callahan, Making Enemies: War and State Building in Burma, pp. 150–1.

24 Ibid., p. 185.

25 Ibid., pp. 150–1.

26 Ibid., p. 102.

27 Selth, Burma’s Armed Forces: Power Without Glory, p. 144.

28 Maung Aung Myoe, Building the Tatmadaw: Myanmar Armed Forces Since 1948 (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2009), p. 174.

29 Selth, ‘Myanmar’s Military Mindset: An Exploratory Survey’, p. 14.

30 Maung Aung Myoe, Building the Tatmadaw: Myanmar Armed Forces Since 1948, p. 17.

31 Ibid., p. 23.

32 Callahan, Making Enemies: War and State Building in Burma, pp. 95–6.

33 Ibid., pp. 184–90.

34 Lee S. Bigelow, ‘The 1960 Election in Burma’, Far Eastern Survey, vol. 29, no. 5, May 1960, pp. 70–4.

35 Selth, Burma’s Armed Forces: Power Without Glory, pp. 9–11.

36 Smith, Burma: Insurgency and the Politics of Ethnicity, p. 202.

37 Robert H. Taylor, General Ne Win: A Political Biography (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2015), p. 54.

38 Ibid., p. 530.

39 Ibid., p. 518.

40 Human Rights Watch, ‘The Resistance of the Monks – Buddhism and Activism in Burma’, 22 September 2009, https://www.hrw.org/report/2009/09/22/resistance-monks/buddhism-and-activism-burma.

41 Before 1988, the military, with its higher salaries and access to subsidised goods, had ‘represented the only really privileged class in Burma’. Insulated from economic hardship, the 1974 and 1988 uprisings crept up on them unexpectedly. See Smith, Burma: Insurgency and the Politics of Ethnicity, p. 201.

42 For a comprehensive survey of these events from an eyewitness to them, see Andrew Selth, ‘Death of a Hero: The U Thant Disturbances in Burma, December 1974’, Griffith Asia Institute, July 2018.

43 Selth, ‘Death of a Hero: The U Thant Disturbances in Burma, December 1974’, p. 3.

44 Renaud Egreteau, ‘The Repression of the August 8–12 1988 (8-8-88) Uprising in Burma/Myanmar’, Sciences Po, 25 February 2009, https://www.sciencespo.fr/mass-violence-war-massacre-resistance/en/document/repression-august-8-12-1988-8-8-88-uprising-burmamyanmar.html.

45 Ibid.

46 Ibid.

47 Sein Win, ‘Burmese Leader Ne Win Resigns in Surprise Move’, Washington Post, 24 July 1988, https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1988/07/24/burmese-leader-ne-win-resigns-in-surprise-move/1b5896ff-3997-4472-8ffd-d49753838d39/.

48 Seth Mydans, ‘Many in Burma Say Ne Win Continues to Pull the Strings’, New York Times, 13 September 1988, https://www.nytimes.com/1988/09/13/world/many-in-burma-say-ne-win-continues-to-pull-the-strings.html.

49 Maureen Aung-Thwin, ‘Burmese Days’, Foreign Affairs, vol. 68, no. 2, Spring 1989, pp. 143–61.

50 Nick B. Williams Jr, ‘Ex-Leader U Nu Proclaims Own Burma Regime’, Los Angeles Times, 10 September 1988, https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1988-09-10-mn-1491-story.html.

51 Josef Silverstein, ‘Aung San Suu Kyi: Is She Burma’s Woman of Destiny?’, Asian Survey, vol. 30, no. 10, October 1990, pp. 1007–19.

52 P.K. Malreddy, ‘Subalter-nation: Narrating Burma’, Postcolonial Studies, vol. 23, no. 2, 2020, pp. 210–25.

53 Aung San Suu Kyi, ‘Speech to a Mass Rally at the Shwedagon Pagoda’, in Freedom From Fear and Other Writings (London: Penguin Books, 1991).

54 David I. Steinberg, The Military in Burma/Myanmar: On the Longevity of Tatmadaw Rule and Influence (Singapore: ISEAS Publishing, 2021), p. 14.

55 Smith, Burma: Insurgency and the Politics of Ethnicity, p. 8.

56 In July 1989, an estimated 6,000 NLD supporters and democracy activists were taken into custody. See Smith, Burma: Insurgency and the Politics of Ethnicity, p. 366.

57 Silverstein, ‘Aung San Suu Kyi: Is She Burma’s Woman of Destiny?’, p. 1014.

58 Ibid., p. 1015.

59 For example, only 871 votes were counted for one seat in Kayah State, as compared to 160,000 for two seats in the delta. See Smith, Burma: Insurgency and the Politics of Ethnicity, p. 412.

60 Robert H. Taylor, ‘Myanmar 1990: New Era or Old?’, Southeast Asian Affairs, 1991, pp. 199–219, p. 205.

61 Robert H. Taylor, ‘The Causes of the Proclivity Towards Factionalism in the Political Parties of Myanmar’, Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, vol. 39, no. 1, 2020, p. 84.

62 Robert H. Taylor, ‘The Evolving Military Role in Burma’, Current History, vol. 89, no. 545, March 1990, pp. 105–8, pp. 134–5 and p. 106.

63 Roger Mitton, ‘How Things Look Inside the NLD’, Asia Week, 16 July 1999.

64 M.J. Walton, ‘The Disciplining Discourse of Unity in Burmese Politics’, Journal of Burma Studies, vol. 19, no. 1, 2015, p. 15.

65 R. Egreteau, Caretaking Democratization: The Military and Political Change in Myanmar (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2016), p. 25.

66 Andrew Selth, ‘Even Paranoids Have Enemies: Cyclone Nargis and Myanmar’s Fears of Invasion’, Contemporary Southeast Asia, vol. 30, no. 3, 2008, pp. 379–402. See also, ‘Myanmar’s Charter Sails Through Referendum’, Reuters, 26 May 2008, https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSSP332901/.

67 The NLD splinter party called the National Democratic Force is not to be confused with the National Democratic Front, an alliance of ethnonational groups formed several decades before. See Richard Roewer, Undemocratic Democrats: A Case Study of the National League for Democracy, DPhil thesis, University of Oxford, 2022, pp. 112–13.

68 Aung Hla Tun, ‘Myanmar Army-Backed Party Sweeps Election’, Reuters, 9 November 2010, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-election-idUKTRE6A600V20101109.

69 See ‘Change Unlikely in 1st Myanmar Vote Since 1990’, CBS News, 7 November 2010, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/change-unlikely-in-1st-myanmar-vote-since-1990/; and Sean Turnell, ‘Myanmar in 2010: Doors Open, Doors Close’, Asian Survey, vol. 51, no. 1, January 2011, p. 149.

70 Egreteau, Caretaking Democratization: The Military and Political Change in Myanmar, pp. 25–7.

71 Myanmar 2008 Constitution, Article 20(b), Article 109(b), and Article 141 (b).

72 Martin Petty, ‘Q+A: Who Will Be the Boss of Myanmar’s New Political System?’, Reuters, 31 January 2011, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-parliament-qa-idUSTRE70U0SH20110131.

73 Erin Murphy, Burmese Haze: US Policy and Myanmar’s Opening – and Closing (Ann Arbor, MI: Asian Studies Association, 2022), p. 95.

74 Myanmar 2008 Constitution, Article 58.

75 Kocha Olarn, ‘Myanmar Confirms Sweeping Election Victory for Suu Kyi’s Party’, CNN, 4 April 2012.

76 Aung Zaw, ‘For U Shwe Mann, Enemies Lurk Everywhere’, Irrawaddy, 5 March 2019, https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/commentary/u-shwe-mann-enemies-lurk-everywhere.html.

77 Christina Fink, ‘Myanmar’s Proactive National Legislature’, Social Research, vol. 82, no. 2, 2015, p. 344.

78 Marco Bunte and Jorn Dosch, ‘Myanmar: Political Reforms and the Recalibration of External Relations’, Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, vol. 34, no. 2, 2015, p. 5.

79 Amy Kazmin, ‘Burma: At Freedom’s Gate’, Financial Times, 25 October 2011, https://www.ft.com/content/5576df62-fb37-11e0-8df6-00144feab49a.

80 Thant Myint-U, The Hidden History of Burma: Race, Capitalism, and the Crisis of Democracy in the 21st Century, pp. 282–4.

81 World Bank, ‘World Development Indicators: Myanmar’.

82 Confidential interviews, Washington, June 2013 and December 2015.

83 Confidential interview, Washington, June 2013.

84 Confidential interview, Yangon, August 2016.

85 Roewer, Undemocratic Democrats: A Case Study of the National League for Democracy, p. 30.

86 Min Zin, ‘Is Burma’s Opposition Ready for the Post-Aung San Suu Kyi Era?’, Foreign Policy, 18 August 2015, https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/08/18/is-burmas-opposition-ready-for-the-post-aung-san-suu-kyi-era-election/.

87 Lun Min Mang, ‘Daw Nyo Nyo Thin’s Grassroots Election Campaign’, Myanmar Times, 25 September 2015.

88 Renaud Egreteau, ‘Myanmar Parliament Preserves Old Patterns’, Nikkei Asia, 3 April 2016, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Renaud-Egreteau-Myanmar-parliament-preserves-old-patterns.

89 Andrew R.C. Marshall and Timothy Mclaughlin, ‘Myanmar’s Suu Kyi Says Will Be Above President in New Government’, Reuters, 5 November 2015, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-election-idUSKCN0SU0AR20151105.

90 ‘The Myanmar Elections: Results and Implications’, Crisis Group Asia Briefing no. 147, International Crisis Group, 9 December 2015.

91 Wai Moe and Richard C. Paddock, ‘Aung San Suu Kyi Loyalist Is in Line for Myanmar Presidency’, New York Times, 10 March 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/11/world/asia/myanmar-president-htin-kyaw-nld.html.

92 ‘Myanmar Parliament Approves Aung San Suu Kyi “PM-Like” Role’, BBC, 5 April 2016.

93 ‘Rohingya “Ethnic Cleansing in Myanmar Continues”: UN’, Al-Jazeera, 6 March 2018.

94 Sithu Aung Myint, ‘The NLD’s Disappointing Record on Media Freedom’, Frontier Myanmar, 14 January 2018, https://www.frontiermyanmar.net/en/the-nlds-disappointing-record-on-media-freedom/.

95 ‘Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo: Reuters Journalists Freed in Myanmar’, BBC, 7 May 2019.

96 Sithu Aung Myint, ‘The NLD’s Disappointing Record on Media Freedom’.

97 ‘Peacock Generation: Satirical Poets Jailed in Myanmar’, BBC, 30 October 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-50238031.

98 Roewer, Undemocratic Democrats: A Case Study of the National League for Democracy, p. 31.

99 Ibid., pp. 232–4.

100 Elliot Brennan, ‘Myanmar: No Country for Young Men’, Lowy Interpreter, 26 March 2018, https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/myanmar-no-country-young-men.

101 Dr Mya Lay Sein, a sports physician and noted badminton player and official, was appointed deputy minister for health and sports in 2018.

102 For more on the armed forces’ patriarchal culture, see International Crisis Group, ‘Breaking Gender and Age Barriers amid Myanmar’s Spring Revolution’, Crisis Group Asia Briefing no. 174, 16 February 2023, https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/b174-breaking-gender-and-age-barriers-amid-myanmars-spring-revolution. The two women who have served as cabinet ministers under the junta since 2021 are Thida Oo, as attorney general, and Thet Thet Khine, who served as the minister of social welfare, relief, and resettlement from 2021 to 2023 and minister of hotels and tourism since 2023.

103 For a review of the NLD’s record on corruption during its time in office, see Thompson Chau, ‘Has Suu Kyi Made Myanmar Less Corrupt?’, Asia Times, 11 February 2020, https://asiatimes.com/2020/02/has-suu-kyi-made-myanmar-less-corrupt/. The NLD and law officers dealt harshly with some NLD politicians accused of graft, such as Tanintharyi chief minister Law Law Maw, who was sacked, charged with corruption and sentenced to 30 years in jail for a relatively minor bribery scandal.

104 Roewer, Undemocratic Democrats: A Case Study of the National League for Democracy, p. 239.

105 M.J. Walton, ‘The Disciplining Discourse of Unity in Burmese Politics’, Journal of Burma Studies, vol. 19, no. 1, 2015, pp. 17–18.

106 Confidential interviews, Sydney, October 2016 and March 2018.

107 Peter Janssen, ‘Prominent US Law Firm Quits on Myanmar’, Asia Times, 5 February 2018, https://asiatimes.com/2018/02/prominent-us-law-firm-quits-myanmar/.

108 Tom Lasseter, ‘In a Muslim Lawyer’s Murder, Myanmar’s Shattered Dream’, Reuters, 13 December 2018, https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/myanmar-murder-politics/.

109 Ibid.

110 The final suspect, a retired lieutenant colonel, has evaded arrest. The rest are civilians. See ‘Myanmar Court Sentences Two to Death for Muslim Lawyer’s Murder’, Al Jazeera, 15 February 2019, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/2/15/myanmar-court-sentences-two-to-death-for-muslim-lawyers-murder/.

111 Aung San Suu Kyi, ‘Speech to a Mass Rally at the Shwedagon Pagoda’.

112 S. McCarthy, ‘The Buddhist Political Rhetoric of Aung San Suu Kyi’, Contemporary Buddhism, vol. 5, no. 2, 2004, p. 75.

113 Roewer, Undemocratic Democrats: A Case Study of the National League for Democracy, p. 198.

114 Nyan Hlaing Lynn, ‘U Win Htein: “Godfather” of the NLD’, Frontier Myanmar, 6 February 2017.

115 Ibid.

116 Htet Khaung Linn, ‘The Outsiders: Who Are the NLD’s Military-Linked Leaders?’, Myanmar Now, 10 December 2018.

117 Ibid.

118 Aung Zaw, ‘For U Shwe Mann, Enemies Lurk Everywhere’, Irrawaddy, 5 March 2019.

119 Clare Hammond, ‘Is Shwe Mann Out in the Cold?’, Frontier Myanmar, 25 March 2019.

120 Aung San Suu Kyi, quoted in Thant Myint-U, The Hidden History of Burma: Race, Capitalism, and the Crisis of Democracy in the 21st Century, p. 41.

121 Samantha Power, The Education of an Idealist (London: William Collins, 2019), p. 317.

122 ‘Myanmar Army Blocks Bid to Slash Parliamentary Power Base’, Al-Jazeera, 11 March 2020.

123 San Yamin Aung, ‘Military and USDP Play Nationalism Card Ahead of Myanmar’s Election’, Irrawaddy, 23 October 2020, https://www.irrawaddy.com/election-2020/military-usdp-play-nationalism-card-ahead-myanmars-election.html.

124 ‘Myanmar Army Blocks Bid to Slash Parliamentary Power Base’, Al-Jazeera.