Adoption of fertility limitation in an American frontier population: An analysis and simulation of socio‐religious subgroups

Abstract

This paper investigates a late nineteenth‐century fertility transition in a predominantly Mormon population of the western United States. A unique set of longitudinal data composed of 31,500 computerized family genealogies is drawn upon to examine a number of problems identified in reappraisals of fertility transition research (Caldwell, 1981; Freedman, 1979). Four subcohorts, differentiated by religious commitment and exposure to urban influences, are examined over the course of the transition. The study presents traditional analyses of subcohort CEB levels, period MTFR's, and m values (Coale and Trussell, 1974) and focuses on a macrosimulation of the fertility transition within the population (Bongaarts, 1976). Despite wide subcohort variation in cross‐sectional levels of fertility over time, simulation results suggest a similar absolute longitudinal decline in fertility levels, parity at which contraception was initiated, and maximum birth parities for all four subcohorts. The implications of these results for future analyses and the desirability of individual level data are discussed.