Macroanalytic study of development and fertility: Consideration of transition models

Abstract

Macroanalytic studies of the relationship of fertility and development have been applied in the past based mostly on cross‐sectional aggregate data from various countries. Because these countries belong to different models of the epidemiologic transition, variation in the dynamic relationship among these models should be allowed for. In this paper, various techniques (including linear and quadratic regression, a minimum‐maximum method of plotting the relationship, a special approach of stepwise regression) were applied to a data set from 85 countries. The crude birth rate was used as the dependent variable with several demographic, economic, social health, and family planning indicators as independent variables, measures over the period 1950–75. The results confirm the existence of submodels of countries with varying relationships between fertility and its correlates. The results disallow direct transferability of the experience of one group of countries (such as Europe) to another group belonging to another model (such as the less developed countries). The study also found the strength of the family planning effort to be a significant factor and one to be singled out as a major contributor in the fertility decline between 1965–75 in the developing countries. Its effect, however, stands to be enhanced in various degrees by concurrent social and economic development.