Anticipated child loss to migration and sustained high fertility in an east Caribbean population

Abstract

Development today is commonly accompanied by rapid urbanization and, where possible, high rates of migration to industrialized countries. At the same time, the expected demographic transition has often not materialized despite decreases in death rates. Child‐to‐woman ratios in St. Vincent and the Grenadines are related to the educational attainment of women in a census district, the percentage of men engaged in agriculture, whether the district has direct access to the outside world through a port or airport, and, when the other variables are controlled, the stability of a district's population. Those districts with the greatest stability of population had the lowest child‐to‐woman ratios, suggesting that the anticipated loss of children to migration may be an important factor in maintaining high reproductive rates.