Probability-based assessment of dam safety using combined risk analysis and reliability methods – application to hazards studies

Abstract

Dam safety assessment is a major challenge for engineers specialising in hydraulic works. It is now standardised in regulations providing for hazards studies using probability-based risk analysis procedures. Dam safety probability-based assessment includes two key scientific issues: the modelling of complex mechanisms that occur within the works, and a probability-based assessment of structural safety. This paper introduces a combined application of risk analysis and dam reliability methodologies. This combination required the completion of our work on the adaptation of risk analysis methods to dams, and on the probability-based modelling of strength and loading input data for a reliability-based analysis. These methodologies are then implemented as part of a hazards study on a roller-compacted-concrete gravity dam.

Keywords:

• dam
• reliability
• risk analysis
• security
• hazards study

Mots-clés:

• barrage
• fiabilité
• sûreté de fonctionnement
• sécurité
• étude de dangers