Modelling human Puumala hantavirus infection in relation to bank vole abundance and masting intensity in the Netherlands

ABSTRACT

This paper deals with modelling the relationship between human Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) infection, the abundance and prevalence of infection of the host (the bank vole), mast, and temperature. These data were used to build and parametrise generalised regression models, and parametrise them using datasets on these factors pertaining to the Netherlands. The performance of the models was assessed by considering their predictive power. Models including mast and monthly temperature performed well, and showed that mast intensity influences vole abundance and hence human exposure for the following year. Thus, the model can aid in forecasting of human illness cases, since (1) mast intensity influences the vole abundance and hence human exposure for the following year and (2) monitoring of mast is much more feasible than determining bank vole abundance.

KEYWORDS:

• Puumala
• human cases
• prediction
• environment
• climate

Acknowledgements

We thank Vilmar Dijkstra for kindly supplying the mast data, and critical comments during the preparation of this manuscript. We also thank Wesley Overman, Emily de Bruckere and Sil Westra for assistance with vole trapping, and Tanja Schouten, Angela Gomersbach, Mathijs van Eck, Wim Vos, and Geert van Amerongen for their assistance with the necropsies of the voles.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

This work was financed by the Netherlands Food and Product Safety Authority and Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sports.