Choosing Priority-Setting Criteria for Carcinogens

Abstract

For priority-setting purposes, simple criteria are needed to estimate, provisionally, the inherent properties of potential carcinogens for which adequate data are not available. Expected utility analysis is used to evaluate three such criteria from a decision-theoretic point of view: (1) the species criterion, which assigns lower priority to experimental than to epidemiological carcinogens, (2) the genotoxicity criterion, which prioritizes substances known to be genotoxic, and (3) the potency criterion, which apportions priorities according to carcinogenic potencies that are derived from animal experiments. The outcome of this analysis is favorable to the potency criterion. It is concluded that considerations of potency should have a much more prominent role than what they have in current regulatory practice.

Keywords:

• Carcinogen regulation
• regulation
• decision theory
• priority-setting
• carcinogenic potency
• TD₅₀