A Probabilistic Human Health Risk Assessment for Environmental Exposure to Dibutylphthalate

Abstract

In the European Union, Directive 92/32/EC and EC Council Regulation (EC) 793/93 require the risk assessment of industrial chemicals. In this framework, it is agreed to characterise the level of “risk” by means of the deterministic quotient of exposure and effects parameters. Decision makers require that the uncertainty in the risk assessment be accounted for as explicitly as possible. Therefore, this paper intends to show the advantages and possibilities of a probabilistic human health risk assessment of an industrial chemical, dibutylphthalate (DBP). The risk assessment is based on non-cancer endpoints assumed to have a threshold for toxicity. This example risk assessment shows that a probabilistic risk assessment in the EU framework covering both the exposure and the effects assessment is feasible with currently available techniques. It shows the possibility of comparing the various uncertainties involved in a typical risk assessment, including the uncertainty in the exposure estimate, the uncertainty in the effect parameter, and the uncertainty in assessment factors used in the extrapolation from experimental animals to sensitive human beings. The analysis done did not confirm the reasonable worst-case character of the deterministic EU-assessment of DBP. Sensitivity analysis revealed the extrapolation procedure in the human effects assessment to be the main source of uncertainty. Since the probabilistic approach allows determination of the range of possible outcomes and their likelihood, it better informs both risk assessors and risk managers.

Keywords:

• uncertainty
• variability
• assessment factors
• CAS Registry No. 84-74-2